2A Girls State Meet Preview

FHSAA State Finals
Jason Byrne

Daesha Rogers and Julia Montgomery will do battle for the third week in a row. Bolles looks to run away with the title, while Pine Crest and Bishop Kenny lock horns for second.

In the Title Hunt...

  • Daesha Rogers (American Heritage)
  • Julia Montgomery (Pine Crest)
  • Adair Lyden (Lake Nona)
  • Mackenzie Wilson (Bolles)

Fighting for the Podium...

  • Bolles
  • Bishop Kenny
  • Pine Crest
  • American Heritage

Individual Analysis

No disresepect to anyone else, but this was really setting up to be a three-horse race between Sarah Day, Daesha Rogers, and Julia Montgomery. Unfortunately, Sarah Day went down with a stress fracture after the district meet--ending a fantastic season. She really could have been a mature challenger in this field and kept things honest. Without her, it likely will be a replay of the last two weekends at District 14 and Region 4. Both of those races have been extremely tight and played out roughly the same way: duking it out all race only for Rogers to pull away the final 400 meters to win by two seconds.

There is no doubt that Rogers has the superior foot speed: she ran 2:09 for 800m and 4:54 1600m. I'd love to know what she could run for a flat out 400 and think she could easily go sub 4:50 for the mile on a good day. The other thing that we know about Daesha is she loves to take the race out hard. Time and time again she has gone up against deep, talented fields and just hammered the first 1200 meters with no fear. A couple of years ago, that pace would catch up with her and she would come back to the field; not so much anymore. Last year Shelby Davison was lucky to escape with the win, just getting by second place Rogers at last year's 2A state meet.

Basically that entire top ten field is gone to graduation or injury or no longer looking like contenders. Montgomery has come out of no where this year and has hopes this week of exacting revenge. What will be her strategy to combat the pure fearlessness and athleticism of Rogers? Not sure, but you better believe she is not going to just sit back and play Daesha's game again this week. Should be fun!

So can anyone else mount a challenge against the eigth-grader from American Heritage and the freshman from Pine Crest? Why, yes, the youth movement continues. I would consider anyone else an outside shot and expect to see Rogers solo from the start, and possibly Montgomery hanging back for the first half before breaking free from the rest of this crew. With that said, freshmen Adair Lyden of Lake Nona and Mackenzie Wilson of Bolles have been looking really good. Wilson won out at District 3 and Region 1, while pixie-sized Lyden was the champion at District 7 and Region 2. Wilson was 15th at the 2A meet last year, but has had a much more impressive season this time around... she opened the season by defeating Sarah Day and a host of other great competition at Katie Caples, finishing second to Julie Wollrath by 23 seconds. And the highlight so far was the first place finish at Great American in the Seeded Division with an 18:39 there. That combined with a great track season behind her means she could potentially surprise; she'll be looking to bounce back from a disappointing 24th place finish at Prestate. Lake Nona freshman Lyden hasn't exactly done anything wow-worthy yet this season, she is just always really solid and right there knocking on the door. Unless she has breakout race, she will likely improve on her 7th place 1A finish last year for a top five spot this week.

I'd be remiss if not to mention Claire Snyder since 2A pollster Doug Nowlin of Pine Crest metnions her as a contender. He has good reason too. She is undefeated this season! Her best on the year was an 18:48, but that was a very fast course run almost completely on the road. Other than that she has kept a really low profile, not run anything extremely fast, but just won out her races... including county, district, and Region 3. She had a decent track season with 7th place finishes in both the 1600 and 3200, season bests of 5:07 and 11:17. And she was eighth place last season at the 1A state meet--one spot and nine seconds behind Adair Lyden. So, yes, she could potentially be there... just hard to tell since she hasn't really shown her cards yet!

Team Analysis

Nothing is for certain in this sport, but the team title looks to be signed, sealed and delivered to Bolles. Remeber the emotional moment last year when Bolles was awarded the second place position on a technicality, but graciously handed over their medals to American Heritage who would have been second without a DQ for wearing the wrong chips? Well this year it's looking like that good karma is with them from that benevolent act of sportsmanship. Depth is the name of the game in this sport and they have it! Coach Tony Ryan's crew is led by Wilson who should be top five if not top three. And realistically their 2-4 should be in the top 15, maybe higher. If you average their district and regional times, their 2-4 (Ally Hajda, Lily Arnold, and Rachel Shapiro) are all in the 19:30s. Historically speaking, that could even get them all in the top ten (especially since ARP may run slower than LER, right Ryan?). If that wasn't already game, set, match... #5 is Ashley DeHechavarria (20:07 district/region average) and their six and seven could be within ten of fifteen seconds of her. Game over, y'all. And scary thought: no one graduates.

Three teams have a legitimate shot at the second position on the podium: Bolles' cross-town rival Bishop Kenny, Pine Crest, and American Heritage. The past two weeks Pine Crest has managed to better Heritage by 10 points at district and about 20 points at region. I don't really expect that gap to close. Heritage may get three in the top 25 with Rogers, Rachelle Alexander, and Calyope Ortega; but with Alexander likely to score a bit higher than last year and the loss of transfer Asja Baker, depth becomes a liability with four and five in all liklihood scoring over fifty points each. Pine Crest should have had an absolutely dominant top three with the addition of Julia Montgomery this year, but Savanna Gornisiewicz isn't quite where she was last year--though she has cut about two minutes from where she started the year. Gornisiewicz is likely going to be the #4 runner for Pine Crest and will be key. Ella Wurth is running well and would be key for them if she can crack the top ten and give the team less than 12 or 13 points between the top two. On the plus side for Pine Crest, they've developed signifantly better depth over last season with three through five averaging in the 20s between district and regional. Historically, that should put them in the 25-50 range (where as last year their 4-5 were in in the 100s).

The final realistic podium contender is Bishop Kenny. They are led by senior Mary Kate Thyfault and junior Macey Kaczorowski, who are both potentially top 15 finishers. Thyfault has an outside shot to crack the top five. From there, they've got another 100-110 or so points between #3 and #5. They are going to match up very strongly against Pine Crest, closely locking horns at almost every position, especially three through six.

Defending champs Carrollton have faced some challenges this year and will have a difficult time staying in the mix. A host of other teams will be vying to force them out of the top five including Lemon Bay, Lake Highland, Ransom Everglades, and Nature Coast. 

More Research