State Meet Coverage Index & Info
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1A BOYS
Holy Trinity senior Daniel Moore has not lost a race all season. His time of 14:57 at Great American was a personal best and course record for him. That performance gives him one of the top times nationwide. HOWEVER, consistently Moore has been in the 15:40 range in all other meets including his 15:41.93. region 1A-3 win over Mark Mutz of Lakeland Christian who was nine seconds behind him. Taking a look at head-to-head rankings Mutz beat Trinity Prep senior Ryan Gousse's time at Pre-State by twenty seconds. Gousse and his Saint's teammate ran Friday night with less competition. I think it will be these three battling it out for the top spot and I think Ryan Gousse surprises some people here with the win. Last year Moore edged him out by two seconds for sixth place while Gousse got seventh. He has a personal best of 15:37 and the word out of Trinity Prep camp is that they had mile time trials this week as well as speed workouts and Gousse looked ready to run this weekend after a strong showing at the regional meet. I think Moore finishes in second with Mutz, P.K. Yonge standouts Jordan Brown and Garrett Westlake, and Trinity Prep junior Daniel Salas in the top six.
Coach Butler's squad could be upset for the individual title, but I believe they will take home the team trophy. Butler said earlier in the season this is one of the deepest teams he has had at Holy Trinity. Moore along with top 15 finishes from Tristan Kattenberg, Joey Castagnaro, Alex Brown, and Cole Oliver will vault them to their first championship since 2008. Trinity Prep took home the prize the past two seconds but this year like in 2008 they will be taking home silver. The virtual meet predicts P.K. Yonge over Trinity Prep, but I don't think that is the case. Gousse and Salas, Westlake and Brown all have strong performances, but the Saints stepped up last week winning region 1A-2 by 46 points. Saints continue to peak and get strong performances out of 3-5. They garner runner-up status, P.K. Yonge rounds out the top three.
1A GIRLS
The virtual meet and majority of people have Julie Wollrath winning this race, but I think Bryce Seymour will make some noise. The Circle Christian junior won her regional easy over the likes of Britney Olinger and Lauren Perry of Oak Hall. At the flrunners.com Invitational and Pre-State she ran against some of the best in the state and hung right there with them. Wollrath ran exceptionally well at Great American, but like Daniel Moore hasn't really been challenged elsewhere. I am taking Seymour with Wollrath finishing as runner-up in front of Sarah Candiano and Brittney Olinger.
Olinger is the number one runner for Oak Hall, but they also have a stellar seventh grader in Lauren Perry. I think there one two punch is enough to give Oak Hall the team championship over Providence. Holy Trinity led by Wollrath rounds out the top three.
2A BOYS
Ransom Everglades rockstar/runner Bert Irigoyen is the reigning 2A state champion and is the favorite to repeat again. Nicholas Palermo of North Broward Prep will be his biggest challenger. The duo has meet three times this season with Irigoyen winning all three. However, Palermo has a good amount of closing speed so if this one comes down to the final 100 meters it could be a good one. I'm going with Irigoyen, Palermo, and Alex Main of Berkely Prep to finish in the top three.
The team battle is between Bishop Kenny and Ransom Everglades and this race will come down to Ransoms' number five runner Gabriel Correa. If he can break in the top fifty Ransom wins, if not it's Bishop Kenny's. However, with some shifting among the virtual rankings I think Ransom led by Irigoyen and Scola take the team title and the rest of the top five step it up on the biggest state of their high school careers. Berkeley Prep finishes the same way their number one runner does with a bronze medal.
2A GIRLS
This is Shelby Davidson's race. Last year she finished second to Kacy Smith of Estero. Smith moved onto 3A and this opened up the door for the Cocoa Beach senior to end her high school career on a high note. She placed top ten last year at Foot Locker South and made it to San Diego and I expect her to do the same again in 2011. Daesha Rogers will push the pace and go out strong, but I don't think the youngster has the stamina to stick with Davidson. This will be Rogers first state cross country meet and Gulf sophomore Kari Grippo's as well. I think Kari "the Ferrari" motors her way to a second place finish with Rogers, Mount Dora's Ashley Heitling, and Gulliver Prep transfer Joanna McCoy rounding out the top five.
The team trophy in 2A is tricky. According to our virtual meet there are four teams within twenty-five points. Bishop Kenny and Bolles look to have the most depth while American Heritage led by Rogers and Rachelle Alexander could place two runners in the top ten. Cocoa Beach will get one point from Davidson. I'm going to go with Bolles on this one. They won it all in 2009 and finished second last year. I think they are hungry and with that strong pack power will take home the trophy. I like American Heritage as runner-up. I did some shifting with places and times and I think with their 1-2 punch they will surprise some people. Right behind them is Bishop Kenny and Cocoa Beach.
3A BOYS
Elliot Clemente is on a different level from most other runners. He is a Foot Locker national finalist and the top runner on a nationally ranked Belen Jesuit. Clemente has found out the hard way twice this year that although he is a stud he is not invincible. If Carlos Miranda can throw in surges and get in Clemente's head mentally he will have a chance. Miranda finished right behind Clemente in third in both those races and has the potential to overthrow him. In the end Clemente wants it too bad and wants the one point for his Belen team. Expect another strong group in this race right behind them with Chamberlain standout Max del Monte, Quincy O'Connor, and a pair of runners from the Panhandle Thomas Howell, and Mac Reynolds.
This is as sure of a bet as they come. Belen Jesuit is ranked in the top ten nationally and the best in Florida. They could very well have their top five in before other team's number two. Avery Lopez, Michael Magoulas, and Francisco Tejidor should all place in the top fifteen. The battle for second will be between Fort Walton Beach led by Tim Bulger and Pensacola Booker T. Washington who is poised for success with number one runner Jacob Kotick.
3A GIRLS
Wow. That is what people will saying after the 3A girls race. Hands down this is the best, most competitive race of the day . I've said it from the beginning and I'll stick with the same horse on the Little Everglades Ranch course, Olivia Ortiz. When she lost Deja Vu to Kacy Smith she told me she would have beat her if she had another 100 meters. Following that she has won every race she has competed in including the flrunners.com Invitational Race of Champions and Pre-State two of the most competitive in the state. I think like Pre-State there will be a pack between the Chiles girls, Ortiz, Kacy Smith, Vanessa Valentine, and Anne Marie Blaney. It's going to come down to the end and Ortiz will come out on top. Williams is right there with Kacy Smith in third, Carly Thomas in fourth, Blaney in fifth, and Valentine in sixth. It's a crap shoot, but that is how I think it plays out.
Estero is the favorite on the team side and look to upend Chiles streak at four straight titles. Coach Gowan's squad won't give in easily, but he doesn't have the depth in the four and five spots that Estero does. Estero is the reigning 2A team champions and the move to 3A doesn't bother them. They win by 20 over Chiles. Creekside with the Rodriguez twins captures third.
4A BOYS
Andres Arroyo of Colonial will win the 4A race. He dominated the region of death and has dominated opponents all season long including what many would say was an upset over Elliot Clemente at Pre-State. This kid has something that you can't teach and that is heart. He doesn't know a second gear. Arroyo ran sub 15:00 at Pre-State and could do it again this weekend. If he doesn't make history there he will make it by winning the first state title ever for Colonial High School. The school has been around over 50 years. Buchholz's Chris Godwin and Billy "the kid" Anguish of Winter Park will try and hang on for dear life. That's how they finished at the region of death and that is how they will finish this weekend in Dade City.
Colonial or Columbus? That's the question on who will win the team championship. To me it's all Grenadiers. Their number five runner Caleb Licht as a season best of 16:31. I think if you by the top four it's close, but when you add the fifth guy it's not close. Colonial sweeps the boys 4A meet bringing back the team and individual trophy to the Orlando school. Columbus finishes second. Thomas Christenberry and Plant edge out Mitchell Moore and Olympia for third.
4A GIRLS
Bridget Blake of Dr. Phillips is the clear favorite in this one. The reigning 4A champ has dominated the distance events last year in track as well as this year in cross country. Her season best time of 17:27 for 5K this season is nearly 50 seconds faster than Mary Kate Ponder of Mandarin. Last week the two faced off in the regional with Blake getting the best of the senior by seven seconds. Ponder is ready and has been tapering for this week and the postseason, but Blake is too strong. She will run in the mid 17's at Little Everglades Ranch. Ponder will take the runner up spot with a pair of Olympia teammates senior Kaitlyn Camp and freshman Emily Headley battling it out for third.
The team battle will be between four teams, Ferguson, Olympia, St. Thomas, and Plant. The latter two both teams dominated their regional meets, but I think Raposo's group, Ferguson, and their pack power find a way to get it done. If Lauren Gaonzalez can finish in the top five and they can keep up their solid split between their top five they will bring the title back to Miami. Plant, led by Julia Rodriguez, edges out Alex Payne and St. Thomas Aquinas. Campo and Headley, of Olympia, have strong performances, but lack of depth prevent the Titans from cracking the top three.
