1A Boys State Meet Preview

FHSAA State Finals
Jason Byrne

In the Hunt...

  • Daniel Salas (Trinity Prep)
  • Alex Brown (Holy Trinity)
  • Tristan Kattenberg (Holy Trinity)
  • Garrett Westlake (PK Yonge)
  • Troy Clark (Mt. Dora Bible)
  • Griffith Rutherford (North Florida Christian)

Fighting for the Podium...

  • Holy Trinity
  • Trinity Prep
  • Maclay

Individual Analysis

Trinity Prep senior Daniel Salas finished second at least year's state championship to teammate Ryan Gousse. With his classmate now attending college at Wiliam & Mary, it is Salas who is the clear heir to the 1A throne. Salas has done nothing this year but prove that he is worthy. In fact, after a really big track season that included a 9:17 3200m and 4:19 1600m, he has put together quite a fall. He only has one defeat on his resume in the 2012 cross country season: an impressive third place 15:17 a the flrunners.com Invitational Race of Champions, which earned him a spot on the MileSplit national rankings watch list.

Though he did not make the trip up to the FSU Pre-State Invitational to see how he stacks up on this course, he faced off and prevailed against his 1A competitors on their home course on October 12th at the Holy Trinity Fall Classic. At that showdown, Salas got by Alex Brown of Holy Trinity by 11 seconds--15:28 to 15:39.  Going back to their middle school days, the two seniors have faced off 28 times in cross country and track,  with Salas winning all but four matchups. Brown though has come along nicely throughout the year with the highlights being that 15:39, a tenth place 15:53 at FSU among the state's top competition from all classifications, and a big win at regional last week of 15:46. In that regional meet, he defeated his teammate Tristian Kattenberg as well as easily out pacing Ross Porter of Shorecrest Prep by 38 seconds. Porter is a potential top five finisher this weekend.

Other runners who could be in the mix for top five spots.... Region 1: Griffith Rutherford (North Florida Christian) and Hunter Potts (Graceville); Region 2: Runner-up Troy Clark of Mt. Dora Bible and third place finisher Garrett Westlake of PK Yonge; Region 3: Andrew Caccitore (Holy Trinity);  Region 4: Scott Simpson (King's Academy).

Team Analysis

I wish I could say otherwise, but in all likelihood this is going to be once again a two-horse race between Holy Trinity and Trinity Prep. The two have gone back and forth since 2007, owning the champion and runner-up spots for all of those years... as we recently highlighted in a great article about the Holy Trinity-Trinity Prep rivalry.

Crunching the numbers various ways sees the score flip-flopping:

I know, I know... as Todd woudl tell me, I tend to go overboard with the stats. But what's apparent from the numbers is that it's going to be very close, and Trinity Prep has really seen its 3-5 guys step up in recent weeks... that's good for spectators because in October it was looking rather lopsided for Holy Trinity!

DUAL MEET TIME!

1) TP - Salas
2) HT - Brown
3) HT - Kattenberg
4) TP - Millson
5) TP - Millson
6) HT - Cacciatore
7) TP - Cook
8) HT - Kattenberg
9) TP - Reggentin
10) HT - Kattenberg

Scores: Trintiy Prep 26, Holy Trinity 29

Obviously that's just a projection and this is not a dual meet, but you can see some of the things that could certain sway it. It could easily swing a number of ways, for example: if Cacciatore can catch one or both Millsons, different story.  That could easily happen. Chas Cook has been stepping it up lately though for Trinity Prep, so that could also be a game changer if he picks some more people off. IT IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER CLOSE ONE. If it comes down to a tie, Holy Trinity should have the benefit of a stronger #6 runner in Cole Oliver or Michael Wilson, who should be in the low 17s.

Unless either team really falters, no one else should be able to challenge for a top two spot. The closest challenger is Maclay. They have decent depth and a fairly strong top three in Jack Rutledge, Travis Covert, and James Daughton; however, they lack the firepower to really pose a serious threat. They are a solid #3 pick, maybe around 130 points or so.

More Research