Saturday night at Southern Stars kicks off the first of the two "big ones" of the regular season, the second being next week's flrunners.com Invitational on the other coast. This weekend's festivities will be under familiar settings: beneath the lights of Ed Radice Soccer Complex in Tampa. Fast times will no doubt be the norm with the cool temperatures and hot competition.
We have the complete team entry lists, along with some previews and predictions of the elite races. Find out who to look for at the top of the list of tomorrow night's results! Or else find out how bad of a prognosticator I am!Girls Stars
Jason's Picks
This could be a good individual battle between Ashley Brasovan and Kayla Hale. Of course Brasovan is favored to win, currently ranked second in the nation, by a healthy margin but I think it will be closer than some may think. Last year on this course, at night, this same time of year (at flrunners 7) Brasovan's time was 16:41 and Hale was 17:15. My prediction is both better those times, my crystal ball says Brasovan wins in 16:35 with Hale barely missing her goal of 16s with a time of 17:04. Brittany Koziara could have her breakthrough race this week. She ran great at a tough (and long) Edgewater course last week, I think she will earn her stardom has the newest Florida member of the 17-minute-club. I say she goes 17:40. The other top girls in this race might PR and a lot are keying on these prime conditions to run fast times, but I doubt anyone else will see much better than a shade under 18:30.
For the teams, sorry Floridians but the Virginia invaders will likely take this one. Though they won't overpower you up front Lake Braddock will kill you with their pack. They are historically the best team in Virginia, with more Footlocker finalists than any other team in the country except Saratoga Springs, NY. Though they haven't run any 5Ks so far this season so it's hard to compare, they had 6 girls in the 11:20-11:35 range for two miles this spring! Currently they are ranked 20th in the nation (although only third in the powerful state of Virginia). Mike Mangan will have his NTN-hopeful girls ready on their one long trip of the season.
Our Lady of Lourdes is Florida's best hope to challenge Braddock. And actually Lourdes is very similar to Braddock. They are historically one of the top teams in the state and they too lack a strong front runner but have an amazing pack. I predict that they will give Braddock a run for their money going blow-for-blow 1-2-3-4-5 with Braddock's pack just being a little tighter for the win. Holy Trinity has an amazing front runner in Kayla Hale and a good pack, but at this point just can't equal the other two in the 2-4 and especially 5 positions. I expect Lake Highland, with a hopefully healthy Allie Prendergrast, to take fourth. If Allie isn't quite 100% I would expect Bishop Kenny overtakes them.
Laura Newton's Preview
Nightlights and tiki torches light the Saturday night sky once again at the Ed Radice Sports Complex for what is possibly the most competitive girl’s cross country competition ever assembled in Florida. The Southern Stars Invitational Cross Country Spectacular will host twenty of the top teams in Florida plus one of the nation’s top- ranked girls teams in Lake Braddock Secondary from Fairfax County, Virginia.
In the team competition twelve of the top twenty ranked teams in all divisions (1A-4A) will line up at 7:30 PM for the fastest 5K of the year. Our Lady of the Lourdes (#1-4A), Holy Trinity (#1-1A) and Lake Braddock (#20 nationwide-#2 Va.) will battle for the coveted Ferman Stars team title. Chiles (#1-3A), Lake Highland Prep (#2-2A), Satellite (#2-3A) and Bishop Kinney (#3-2A) will run to place runners among the top finishers along with MaClay (#4-1A), Bolles (#4-2A), St. Thomas Aquinas (#3-3A), Bartram Trails (#3-4A), Wharton (#5-3A), Winter Park (#5-4A) and Astronaut (#6-2A). The team competition is very deep and a “top 10” finish in this race could be considered a win in most invitational meets.
Individually, the competition includes Wellington’s Ashley Brasovan (#1 ranked South region) with a best time of 17:10, Holy Trinity’s Kayla Hale (#6 ranked South region) at 17:46, Boone’s Brittany Koziara (18:11), Satellite’s Ashley Shiver (18:51), Braddock’s Anna Corrigan (18:54). Based on the entries, the “top 20” individuals will be well under 20 minutes.
Team Entry List
Bartram Trail
Berkeley Prep
Bishop Kenny
Chiles
East Lake
George Jenkins
Holy Trinity
Lake Braddock
Lake Highland Prep
Lourdes
Maclay
Ransom Everglades
Satellite
South Lake
St. Stephens Episcopal
St. Thomas Aquinas
Tarpon Springs
Wellington
Wharton
Winter Park
Boys Stars
Jason's Picks
Joe Franklin hasn't lost yet this year and I don't see that changing this week. He's facing basically the same exact front runners that he went up against last week at FSU (minus his cloest competition, Wehunt). But I think Joe will use the cool conditions to break out on to the national scene as a Footlocker South contender. He's been hanging out and running seemingly at ease in the 15:40s. He's going to break one open and go around 15:18. Write it down! Kyle Cooke loves Ed Radice and he'll run well, probably 15:40ish or better. Connor Revord, Bryan Suarez, and John Culver will fight it out for third through fifth--I say Suarez wins with a good kick overtaking Revord by a couple seconds.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but... Leon. Tampa Jesuit and Christopher Columbus are considered the top teams in the state. My first inclination is to call Tampa Jesuit, but I think this could be Leon's day. Their top two is tough and although their 4-5 has been a little weaker than the other two I say going from the Tallahassee hills to the cool flat Ed Radice they do it. Close battle: Leon-Jesuit-Columbus in that order. Columbus has a great 2-5 pack but in this deep race it may be too little too late unless they can collectively cut 10-20 seconds each.
Winter Park, Boone, Bishop Kenny, Chiles, Naples, Bartram Trail, Chamberlain, Lake Braddock VA, and Holy Trinity will all be contending for the other top slots. I really don't know who to call but I think fourth should be from Orlando: WP or Boone--who wants it most?
Mike Hill's Preview
The Southern Stars feature race will be just that, a race featuring stars. Through the first part of the season, there have been 13 harriers break 16:20 for 5K and 10 of them will be in one race. In addition, every #1 team in their classification will be in attendance along with 6 other top 5 programs, and a total of 17 of the teams are ranked in the top 10 of their classification. The somewhat intimate setting of just 19 teams is also a highlight of this meet. Fireworks are scheduled for after the awards show, but I believe they will start about 8:15 PM instead. Featured in the individual race will be no less than 7 runners with a legitimate chance at winning, but some are just a bit more legit than others. Heavy favorite has to be Joe Franklin of Godby HS. He is the current 1600M record holder for Florida, and is undefeated this year so far. With a 15:32 clocking under his belt already look for him to fly under the stars. On his heels will be a quartet of runners who are no slouches themselves. Connor Revord of hometown Jesuit, Derek Wehunt of nearby Sickles HS, Brian Suarez from Okeechobee, and Kyle Cooke hailing from 1A powerhouse Holy Trinity will all give Franklin a run for his money. Look for the winner to come from that group. A second tier of talent could force the guys in the top 5 to all time bests, because it includes 5 more of the top 13 times in the state. John Culver of Merritt Island, Matt Mizereck of Leon, Will Standford of Leon, Richard Blake of Tampa Prep, and Bret Butler of Holy Trinity have all dipped under 16:20 this year.
While some consider cross country to be an individual sport, what will unfold Saturday night will be an epic team confrontation unlike any seen this season. The slight favorite has to Miami Columbus. With 7 guys under 17:05, and a tight 1-5 gap Columbus will be only be pushed by 3 teams. 2A #1 Jesuit has to be considered in the title fight as well. Front runner Revord helps out, but they too can boast a strong 7 with everyone having dipped under 17:20 this season. 3A #1 Leon has been running extremely well this year with a big win at UF, and the fact that they could have 2 guys in the top ten is huge. 4A #2 Boone is also a dark horse here having barely lost to the meet favorite Columbus last week. The 2nd tier of teams will include 1A #1 Holy Trinity – they have a fantastic top 3, 1A #2 Trinity Prep, which has yet to run full strength, 2A power Bishop Kinney, who made the trip to run the course in the preseason, 4A #4 Winter Park, defending state champions, and 4A #5 Ferguson which may have a huge impact if their #1 runner Daniel Manco returns this week as the #1 returner in 4A. All in all, look for fast times, fierce team battles, and the best competition Tampa will see all year.
Team Entry List
Bartram Trail
Berkeley Prep
Bishop Kenny
Bolles
Boone
Chamberlain
Chiles
Estero
Ferguson
Gaither
Geneva School
George Jenkins
Holy Trinity
Lake Braddock
Leon
Miami Columbus
Naples
Oak Hall
Plant
Sarasota
Tampa Jesuit
Trinity Prep
Wharton
Winter Park
Primetime Girls
Jason's Picks
Emilie Amaro will win the girls race--easiest call I've made all year. Unpushed, I'm predicting her time at around 17:50 and the fourth fastest girls time of the night. Lakeland Christian should take the team title, although the Leon girls could upset. Vero and Cypress Bay also have some strength up front, but depth may be a factor.
Team Entry List
Bishop Moore
Bolles
Coral Springs
Cypress Bay
Dade Christian
East Bay
Estero
Ferguson
Freedom (Tampa)
Geneva School
King
Lakeland Christian
Leon
Mariner
Naples
Newsome
Okeechobee
Plant
Riverview (Sarasota)
South Fork
Trinity Prep
Vero Beach
Primetime Boys
Jason's Picks
Steven Landreth, Eric Dansky, and Will Green will contest for first. Crystal River should take the team title pretty easily. Okeechobee might contest for that if you add in Bryan Suarez, but he'll be running by himself in the Stars division. Satellite, Bishop Kenny, and Vero Beach will fight for third.
Team Entry List
Bishop Moore
Bloomingdale
Brandon
Countryside
Crystal River
Cypress Bay
Dade Christian
Dr. Phillips
Gaither
Newsome
Okeechobee
Ransom Everglades
Ridgewood
Riverview (Sarasota)
Satellite
South Lake
St. Thomas Aquinas
Tampa Prep
Vero Beach
Little Dipper Boys
Teams Entered: St. John Neumann, Seffner Christian, Robinson, Oak Hall, Lennard, Lakeland Christian, Lake Highland Prep, Keswick Christian, Indian Rocks Christian, Geneva School, Gaither, Freedom (Tampa), Clearwater Central Catholic, Canterbury (SP), Bayshore Christian, Atlantic (PO), Admiral Farragut.
Little Dipper Girls
Admiral Farragut, Atlantic (PO), Bayshore Christian, Canterbury (SP), Clearwater Central Catholic, Crystal River, Holy Names, Indian Rocks Christian, Keswick Christian, Maclay, Northside Christian, Oak Hall, Robinson, Seffner Christian, St. John Neumann, Tampa Catholic, Tampa Prep.
Big Dipper Boys
Wesley Chapel, Timber Creek, Tampa Catholic, St. Petersburg, South Fork, Sickles, Ridgewood, Port Charlotte, Poinciana, Palmetto, Palm Harbor University, Okeechobee, Northeast (SP), Merritt Island, Lakewood Ranch, Lakewood, Lakeland, King, Hillsborough, Harmony, Edgewater, East Lake, East Bay, Durant, Cypress Creek, Coral Springs, Celebration, Brandon, Boca Ciega, Bayshore Christian, Armwood, Alonso.
Big Dipper Girls
Alonso, Armwood, Bloomingdale, Boca Ciega, Brandon, Celebration, Chamberlain, Cypress Creek, Dr. Phillips, Durant, East Lake, Edgewater, Harmony, Hillsborough, Lakeland, Lakewood Ranch, Mariner, Merritt Island, Northeast (SP), Oak Ridge, Okeechobee, Palm Harbor University, Palmetto, Ridgewood, Sarasota, Sickles, St. Petersburg, Tampa Catholic, Timber Creek, Wesley Chapel.
SNL Boys
Wellington, Sickles, Palm Beach Gardens, Manatee, Leto, Land O'Lakes, Kathleen, Chiles, Boone.
SNL Girls
Boone, Chiles, Gaither, Kathleen, Land O'Lakes, Leto, Manatee, Palm Beach Gardens, Sickles.