4A REGION 1
As good as some of these teams are, no one and I mean NO ONE in the 4A Region 1 is going to touch Bartram Trail. Their 19:33 team average below looks impressive, but in actuallity they are going to be much better. Melanie Novack and Callie Cooper will continue to lead the way as a great 1-2 this year.
The one weakness here with Bartram trail was the big gap between 4 and 5. That gap is likely to be annihilated based on track season. The anticipation is that #7 runner Allison Gubitz is going to be the #3 runner this year. She had a fantastic spring. So pencil in Gubitz in the low to mid 19s and you now see the potency of this squad. What's going to be really exciting to watch is the battle between Bartram and Lourdes at state!
Winter Park is lead by Maggie Emons and her 19:10 PR. I think the Wildcats had kind of an odd/off year last year. They should be much better than their returning PRs and expect Ciera Williams and Ana Groff to dip well into the 19s. They won't be in the vacinity of Bartram Trail, but should cruise through to state fairly easily.
The real battle is going to be for the final slots in Dade City. I think this is certainly the girls "Region of Death". There are just SO MANY good teams here right around the same level and the shame is most are going to be left home. Here's who will be in the mix:
Winter Springs - Solid and really deep team... even to their JV ranks they pack a punch. What they lack is the front of the pack. They'll need either someone to step up big time to be their ace or to have a couple modeately develop into the mid 19s to have a decent 1-2 to build a foundation on and put themselves out of reach. They are likely to earn the third state birth in this region.
Niceville - Always a state powerhouse, but lack the firepower up front and need to close up the 4-5 gap to advance.
Timber Creek - No ace, but a 1-5 gap of only 57 seconds keeps them in the hunt.
Dr. Phillips - Same as Timber creek but with a 1:12 1-5 split.
Spruce Creek - Pretty good looking track season bodes well . If I had to predict, I think they may upset and take the final state ticket from this region. They have the advantage of having the guns up front with Mandy Perkins and Brooke Nebel, they'll get a head start. And based on the progress during the spring, they could have 3-5 in the 20s at least, which means they're going to state.
Lyman - Yes, another team with a chance! They are similar to Spruce Creek with a strong (but less so than Spruce Creek) top two. They'll need help from the back to have any chance. Ruth Ashley and Ashley Breen should advance individually if nothing else, but they have struggled in big meets when they pressure is on so we'll see how they come through.
Others... yes, there are more!!! Buchholz, Olympia, and Boone all really could contend also if they are on their game and put in a good summer. That is 11 teams vying for that top four!
Here is what virtual meet would look like between those 9 teams battling it out.
Of course I should mention individually this region is lead by Boone's 2007 Foot Locker Nationals qualifier Brittany Koziara. She really had a huge breakthrough year last year and going into her senior year I'm sure has even bigger goals in mind. My preseason prediction is that this region will have two Foot Locker Nationals qualifiers... I think that Amanda Perkins has a pretty good shot if she does everything right. These two girls, along with Alyssa Burkert will be way out in front of the fourth place runner, whoever that might be. Three girls in the 17s... 11 teams who'd qualify through to state in any other region.... Region of Death? Yeah! Ya think!?!?
Top Returning Teams Based on 2007 Performances (full list)
1 | FL Bartram Trail HS | 70 | ||
1) Novack, Melanie | 2009 | 18:52.00 | 4 | |
2) Cooper, Callie | 2009 | 18:52.00 | 5 | |
3) Perez, Alaina | 2011 | 19:34.97 | 9 | |
4) Dunbar, Katelyn | 2009 | 19:37.00 | 11 | |
5) Walker, Rachel | 2009 | 20:50.96 | 41 | |
Average Time: 19:33.39 -- Total Time: 1:37:46.93 -- 1-5 Split: 1:58.96 | ||||
6) Meier, Michelle | 2009 | 21:03.57 | 51 | |
7) Gubitz, Allison | 2010 | 21:39.26 | 81 | |
8) Waldrip, Elena | 2009 | 22:28.96 | -- | |
9) Sexton, Lyndsey | 2009 | 22:50.02 | -- | |
10) Batt, Emily | 2009 | 23:26.15 | -- | |
2 | FL Winter Park HS | 118 | ||
1) Emons, Meggie | 2009 | 19:00.00 | 6 | |
2) Williams, Ciera | 2011 | 20:11.48 | 21 | |
3) Groff, Ana | 2009 | 20:21.00 | 25 | |
4) Miller, Rachel | 2011 | 20:37.50 | 32 | |
5) Groff, Katya | 2010 | 20:38.00 | 34 | |
Average Time: 20:09.6 -- Total Time: 1:40:47.98 -- 1-5 Split: 1:38 | ||||
6) Maddox, Laney | 2009 | 21:8.00 | 54 | |
7) Wilson, Jordan | 2010 | 21:30.00 | 72 | |
8) Klusman, Maggie | 2011 | 22:00.72 | -- | |
9) Jewett, Callie | 2009 | 22:14.00 | -- | |
10) Breske, Jackie | 2009 | 22:48.00 | -- | |
3 | FL Winter Springs HS | 163 | ||
1) Loupos, Arielle | 2009 | 19:53.00 | 13 | |
2) Yocum, Kristen | 2011 | 20:00.67 | 16 | |
3) Adams, Elizabeth | 2009 | 20:24.00 | 27 | |
4) Keeter, Emily | 2009 | 21:02.98 | 50 | |
5) Simerville, Mallory | 2009 | 21:10.19 | 57 | |
Average Time: 20:30.17 -- Total Time: 1:42:30.84 -- 1-5 Split: 1:17.19 | ||||
6) Gregory, Caroline | 2010 | 21:10.55 | 59 | |
7) Moran, Taylor | 2010 | 21:12.03 | 61 | |
8) Sapp, Julia | 2009 | 21:46.05 | -- | |
9) Stelling, Kaley | 2010 | 23:17.27 | -- | |
4 | FL Niceville HS | 174 | ||
1) Cox, Chanelle | 2009 | 19:35.89 | 10 | |
2) Keel, Morgan | 2009 | 20:10.35 | 19 | |
3) Eschbach, Lauren | 2011 | 20:11.00 | 20 | |
4) McCool, Abby | 2011 | 20:45.00 | 37 | |
5) Adams, Taylor | 2011 | 21:45.21 | 88 | |
Average Time: 20:29.49 -- Total Time: 1:42:27.45 -- 1-5 Split: 2:09.32 | ||||
6) Dennison, Kristin | 2010 | 21:50.22 | 92 | |
7) Sardisco, Shannon | 2011 | 24:21.00 | 161 | |
8) Sanders, Shannon | 2009 | 24:46.00 | -- | |
9) Jefferson, Ashley | 2011 | 28:17.00 | -- | |
5 | FL Timber Creek HS | 205 | ||
1) Mosley, Jordan | 2011 | 20:22.00 | 26 | |
2) Vescovi, Laura | 2010 | 20:25.23 | 28 | |
3) Policicchio, Laura | 2011 | 20:33.00 | 31 | |
4) Cabrera, Victoria | 2010 | 21:10.40 | 58 | |
5) Carampatan, Rachelle | 2009 | 21:19.78 | 62 | |
Average Time: 20:46.08 -- Total Time: 1:43:50.41 -- 1-5 Split: 57.78 | ||||
6) Neumeister, Ashley | 2011 | 21:22.15 | 65 | |
7) Rhodes, Jennifer | 2009 | 21:31.00 | 74 | |
8) Moesly, Jordan | 2011 | 21:36.86 | -- | |
9) Roche, Olivia | 2011 | 21:52.24 | -- | |
10) Fraser, Kayla | 2010 | 22:26.21 | -- |
Top Returning Individuals Based on 2007 Performances (full list)
4A REGION 2
Vero Beach is going to be the favorite going into this year after Melbourne lost three of its top five and four out of its top seven from last year. Mel High girls were one of the top teams in the state last year, but will be playing catch up this season.
Vero and Melbourne are neighbors... just down US-1 from each other. And it's going to be an awfully tough battle. Vero has a pretty decent lead on paper with Lauren Lapointe leading the charge as the top individual in the region. They are young--no seniors on the varsity team--and will need to work hard to keep the lead in this region.
Melbourne is lead by Helen Mann. She'll need some help to win the region and even more to try to earn the team a top five finish at state. They showed some signs of life during track season in their four and five positions (Shockley and Beadoin) so that certainly bodes well for them.
Lakeland, listed third below, loses leader Sydney Devore--a transfer to 3A Lake Region. That really puts the Dreadnaughts into a big hole to dig out of. And it is probably deep enough that Sickles and Sarasota Riverview should pretty easily out pace them. Lakeland will be challenged to return to state this year.
Top Returning Teams Based on 2007 Performances (full list)
1 | FL Vero Beach HS | 61 | ||
1) Lapointe, Lauren | 2010 | 18:30.38 | 1 | |
2) Grossman, Kathleen | 2010 | 19:52.00 | 6 | |
3) Penney, Sammie | 2010 | 20:33.13 | 13 | |
4) Sonier, Katie | 2011 | 20:52.00 | 16 | |
5) Leffew, Jen | 2010 | 21:14.69 | 25 | |
Average Time: 20:12.44 -- Total Time: 1:41:02.2 -- 1-5 Split: 2:44.31 | ||||
6) Lapointe, Gabi | 2011 | 21:23.90 | 28 | |
7) Voerhoeven, Paige | 2010 | 23:38.00 | 71 | |
8) Loewendick, Kaley | 2011 | 24:25.00 | -- | |
9) Ferretti, Lia | 2010 | 25:51.00 | -- | |
10) Dietzen, Kristen | 2009 | 25:53.00 | -- | |
2 | FL Melbourne HS | 99 | ||
1) Mann, Helen | 2009 | 19:18.00 | 4 | |
2) Atkinson, Michelle | 2010 | 20:00.08 | 7 | |
3) Wassmuth, Sarah | 2009 | 21:10.00 | 24 | |
4) Shockley, Allison | 2009 | 21:19.00 | 27 | |
5) Beaudoin, Alexis | 2011 | 22:06.00 | 37 | |
Average Time: 20:46.62 -- Total Time: 1:43:53.08 -- 1-5 Split: 2:48 | ||||
6) Baker, Elle | 2011 | 22:39.00 | 44 | |
7) Hamilton, Lindsay | 2011 | 22:43.00 | 48 | |
8) Lott, Morgan | 2011 | 22:46.00 | -- | |
9) Trout, Katie | 2010 | 24:37.00 | -- | |
10) Faulkner, Michelle | 2009 | 26:43.00 | -- | |
3 | FL Lakeland HS | 127 | ||
1) Devore, Sydney | 2009 | 19:4.00 | 3 | |
2) Lewis, Alex | 2009 | 21:07.70 | 22 | |
3) Anderson-Otten, Mariah | 2010 | 21:15.18 | 26 | |
4) Bryant, Kayla | 2009 | 22:05.69 | 36 | |
5) Flynn, Trafenia | 2009 | 22:19.00 | 40 | |
Average Time: 21:10.31 -- Total Time: 1:45:51.57 -- 1-5 Split: 3:15 | ||||
6) Andresen-otton, Mariah | 2009 | 23:29.25 | 67 | |
7) Muiselaar, Ariel | 2009 | 23:39.51 | 72 | |
8) Aranjo, Camila | 2010 | 24:40.52 | -- | |
9) Craven, Nicole | 2010 | 26:07.25 | -- | |
4 | FL Sickles HS | 138 | ||
1) Wehunt, Emily | 2010 | 20:49.89 | 15 | |
2) Owens, Caitlin | 2010 | 21:07.46 | 21 | |
3) Mitchell, Samantha | 2010 | 21:07.77 | 23 | |
4) Sivitz, Sydney | 2010 | 21:24.00 | 29 | |
5) Innocent, Celine | 2011 | 22:46.02 | 50 | |
Average Time: 21:27.03 -- Total Time: 1:47:15.14 -- 1-5 Split: 1:56.13 | ||||
6) Watson, Grace | 2010 | 23:11.72 | 60 | |
7) White, Brittney | 2010 | 24:18.00 | 86 | |
5 | FL Sarasota Riverview HS | 152 | ||
1) Mahoney, Colleen | 2010 | 20:05.55 | 9 | |
2) McGinn, Kathryn | 2010 | 20:42.00 | 14 | |
3) Stein, Taylor | 2010 | 20:59.08 | 19 | |
4) Chase, Marissa | 2011 | 21:2.14 | 20 | |
5) Karlstrand, Kelsey | 2010 | 24:34.08 | 90 | |
Average Time: 21:28.57 -- Total Time: 1:47:22.85 -- 1-5 Split: 4:28.53 | ||||
6) Fuller, Este | 2010 | 26:01.00 | 126 |
Top Returning Individuals Based on 2007 Performances (full list)
4A REGION 3
Wellington beat out Cypress Bay by one point at last year's regional championship: 69-70. This year Wellington returns six out of seven from that team. Cypress Bay returns five out of seven, but one of those seven is Foot Locker Nationals qualifier Emilie Amaro.
So, I look for this to be pretty well in the bag for Wellington. They of course are lead by her magesty, Queen Ashley. I had the pleasure of seeing the reigning national champion running up the final hill after passing former national champion Jordan Hassay (of California) and crossing the finish line victorious at Foot Locker Nationals in San Diego last year. Wow! What a magical moment that was!
I can't say enough about Ashley. She is arguably the greatest female distance runner ever in the state of Florida. In her senior year, she is likely to put all arguments to rest. Right now the only one who could be considered in her league is Betty Jo Springs, a 1970s star who still holds the 2 mile/3200 state record in track. An athlete like Ashley only comes along in Florida once in a generation and she is ours... she doesn't run, she glides like a gazelle. Okay, I'm done being a marveling Ashley fan.
Back to the teams.... Wellington has a nice 2-4 pack behind their leader. The split for that pack is only 30 seconds. I think that's enough to allow them to take this regional title, but if they want to make a mark at the state meet it's going to take cutting about 30-45 seconds each. If they do that they can possibly compete for a top five spot at state... as it is they are sitting around 7th or 8th.
Coral Springs and Spanish River are looking really close for that second and third position. They both lack the firepower up front, but have good enough depth to get the job done.
Those two teams might have some company though. Stoneman Douglas had a nice surprise this summer. St. Thomas Aquinas starlet junior Lauren Ross is transferring in with her 18:42 PR. That gives them obviouslly a huge boost and shaves about 50 points from their team score at region and is even more significant at state. Doing the math, it still puts them behind Spanish River and Coral Springs... but within striking distance. And it could be a situation where Douglas is 4th in the region but beats all, but Wellington at state the next week.
Cypress Bay has the benefit of leaders Mariana Lucena and Ashley Lesnik, which means they're not scoring very much on the front end. They'll need to develop some more depth to be able to compete with the top four in this region, but should finish in 5th or 6th in the region with little problem.
Top Returning Teams Based on 2007 Performances (full list)
1 | FL Wellington HS | 58 | ||
1) Brasovan, Ashley | 2009 | 16:43.00 | 1 | |
2) Ingram, Sofie | 2011 | 20:41.56 | 9 | |
3) Murphy, Nicole | 2010 | 20:59.00 | 13 | |
4) O'Boyle, Megan | 2010 | 21:1.00 | 15 | |
5) Hoskins, Nicole | 2009 | 21:11.00 | 20 | |
Average Time: 20:07.11 -- Total Time: 1:40:35.56 -- 1-5 Split: 4:28 | ||||
6) Hoskins, Emily | 2010 | 22:37.14 | 35 | |
7) Wilga, Evelina | 2010 | 24:39.00 | 73 | |
8) Boudreau, Danielle | 2010 | 24:45.00 | -- | |
9) Moskowitz, Lyndsey | 2010 | 28:13.00 | -- | |
10) Terry, Alyssa | 2011 | 28:46.00 | -- | |
2 | FL Coral Springs HS | 74 | ||
1) Patrick, Candice | 2010 | 20:27.00 | 8 | |
2) Shreffler, Samantha | 2010 | 20:58.60 | 11 | |
3) Porter, Jenevah | 2009 | 21:4.00 | 16 | |
4) Benckenstein, Sarah | 2009 | 21:5.00 | 17 | |
5) D'Angelo, Gabriele | 2011 | 21:24.33 | 22 | |
Average Time: 20:59.79 -- Total Time: 1:44:58.93 -- 1-5 Split: 57.33 | ||||
6) Charlassier, Erika | 2009 | 23:00.36 | 41 | |
3 | FL Spanish River HS | 78 | ||
1) Irwin, Danielle | 2010 | 20:12.00 | 5 | |
2) Woodhouse, Skye | 2009 | 20:59.00 | 12 | |
3) Woodhouse, Katherine | 2010 | 21:00.00 | 14 | |
4) Murry, Latisha | 2010 | 21:28.00 | 23 | |
5) North, Allie | 2011 | 21:35.00 | 24 | |
Average Time: 21:02.8 -- Total Time: 1:45:14 -- 1-5 Split: 1:23 | ||||
6) Gabrielle, Lisa | 2011 | 21:40.74 | 25 | |
7) Siegel, Renee | 2011 | 21:55.45 | 27 | |
8) Fagerli, Kirsten | 2009 | 22:45.00 | -- | |
9) Main, Nichole | 2010 | 23:58.23 | -- | |
10) Green, Jaclynn | 2010 | 23:59.00 | -- | |
4 | FL Douglas HS | 149 | ||
1) Cordero, Daniella | 2010 | 20:51.00 | 10 | |
2) England, Sara | 2010 | 21:10.00 | 19 | |
3) Tyrie, Kristen | 2011 | 22:12.92 | 32 | |
4) Raaf, Karissa | 2009 | 22:59.14 | 40 | |
5) Solomon, Jamie | 2010 | 23:21.75 | 48 | |
Average Time: 22:06.96 -- Total Time: 1:50:34.81 -- 1-5 Split: 2:30.75 | ||||
6) Choi, Eunji | 2009 | 23:22.37 | 49 | |
7) Thomson, Alexa | 2009 | 24:05.00 | 61 | |
8) Senechal, Roxanne | 2009 | 24:19.00 | -- | |
9) Goldring, Rebecca | 2009 | 24:55.00 | -- | |
10) Stanislaw, Elizabeth | 2011 | 25:04.93 | -- | |
5 | FL Cypress Bay HS | 182 | ||
1) Lucena, Mariana | 2009 | 19:7.00 | 2 | |
2) Lesnik, Ashley | 2011 | 19:57.00 | 3 | |
3) MacConnie, Lindsey | 2009 | 22:42.00 | 37 | |
4) Germain, Monique | 2009 | 23:58.65 | 57 | |
5) Bonilla, Katie | 2011 | 25:26.98 | 83 | |
Average Time: 22:14.33 -- Total Time: 1:51:11.63 -- 1-5 Split: 6:19.98 | ||||
6) Berry, Giuliana | 2010 | 26:22.97 | 95 | |
7) Natareno, Jennifer | 2010 | 26:52.01 | 101 |
Top Returning Individuals Based on 2007 Performances (full list)
4A REGION 4
Our Lady of Lourdes is legendary. Year after year they put together dominating teams. They beat you from all angles... up front with stellar individuals and from behind with depth anyone would envy all the way through their JV. The maestro of all of that success, Coach Ary Montavlo, stepped down this year. Obviouslly he has left big shoes to fill, and Coach Rebecca Rodriguez-Michalak is just the woman for the job! She was the head track coach for the Bobcats. And Ary, though retired, is still making his presence known in the background.
If the Lourdes Legacy is going to fall away, it certainly isn't going to be this year!
On paper, they are hands down the best team in the 4A and have a great argument that they are perhaps the best of any classification. In reality, the 4A is going to be much closer. As mentioned earlier, in Region 1 Bartram Trail manufactured a great track season that spells an awesome war for the 4A title at state.
Lourdes is lead by Cristina Brea and Alessandra Valdes--an amazing one-two punch. And with just a 45 second 1-5 split... wow! Look at the mock regional score there below--18 points! No offense to anyone else, but they can run the region meet at half speed and still win... and that's probably just what they'll do.
South Dade has the second position wrapped up for now, but they are looking pretty vulnerable. If Braddock can manage to find someone to step up for them in the five spot or if Ferguson's pack continues to progress with their times like they have been they will easily displace South Dade for 2nd in the region. But those are both sizeble ifs.
Miami Northwestern, AKA the best track & field team in the state, will be looking for a few more warm bodies on the squad and hope someone turns into a gem. They have track & field baller Skyler Blue Wallen, who had a fantastic spring at 800 meters, showing she can run a decent 5000 meters helping keep their point total down and keeping them ahead of a host of other teams around the same level who will be fighting for the last two qualifying spots.
Top Returning Teams Based on 2007 Performances (full list)
1 | FL Our Lady of Lourdes Academy | 18 | ||
1) Brea, Cristina | 2010 | 18:55.00 | 1 | |
2) Valdes, Alessandra | 2011 | 19:10.00 | 2 | |
3) Rodriguez, Nastasha | 2009 | 19:33.00 | 4 | |
4) Menendez, Melissa | 2009 | 19:37.00 | 5 | |
5) Ventura, Catherine | 2011 | 19:40.00 | 6 | |
Average Time: 19:23 -- Total Time: 1:36:55 -- 1-5 Split: 45.00 | ||||
6) Pedrayes, Vanessa | 2010 | 20:32.00 | 11 | |
7) Sanchez, Katrina | 2009 | 21:13.00 | 14 | |
8) Rudd, Alexis | 2009 | 21:58.00 | -- | |
9) Alfaro, Alejandra | 2009 | 22:12.00 | -- | |
10) Menendez, Astrid | 2010 | 22:20.00 | -- | |
2 | FL South Dade HS | 126 | ||
1) Bogan, Tianesha | 2010 | 20:26.10 | 10 | |
2) Charles, Michelange | 2009 | 22:14.00 | 23 | |
3) Grier, Latorria | 2010 | 22:42.00 | 29 | |
4) David, Tatiana | 2011 | 22:56.14 | 30 | |
5) Grier, Alexis | 2011 | 23:13.00 | 34 | |
Average Time: 22:18.25 -- Total Time: 1:51:31.24 -- 1-5 Split: 2:46.9 | ||||
6) Ousley, Tara | 2009 | 24:33.00 | 52 | |
3 | FL G. Holmes Braddock HS | 145 | ||
1) Valdivia, Maria | 2009 | 19:32.74 | 3 | |
2) Portugese, Angelique | 2010 | 21:59.00 | 20 | |
3) Benitez, Kathleen | 2009 | 22:08.00 | 22 | |
4) Perez, Ana | 2009 | 23:40.00 | 39 | |
5) Zamudio, Valentina | 2010 | 25:01.00 | 61 | |
Average Time: 22:28.15 -- Total Time: 1:52:20.74 -- 1-5 Split: 5:28.26 | ||||
6) Buergo, Arliss | 2010 | 26:44.00 | 80 | |
7) Izquierdo, Maryuri | 2010 | 31:13.00 | 112 | |
8) Alfonso, Monica | 2010 | 33:19.00 | -- | |
9) Perez, Charlene | 2010 | 33:28.00 | -- | |
10) Marin, Indira | 2010 | 36:45.00 | -- | |
4 | FL John A. Ferguson HS | 146 | ||
1) Castro, Heather | 2009 | 21:34.40 | 18 | |
2) Sanchez, Lizzeth | 2009 | 22:37.95 | 27 | |
3) Vazquez, Krysten | 2010 | 22:38.00 | 28 | |
4) Robbins, Ashley | 2011 | 23:01.00 | 32 | |
5) Herrera, Gabriela | 2009 | 23:53.00 | 41 | |
Average Time: 22:44.87 -- Total Time: 1:53:44.35 -- 1-5 Split: 2:18.6 | ||||
6) Rodriguez, Stephanie | 2011 | 24:45.00 | 58 | |
7) Torres, Christina | 2010 | 26:34.00 | 78 | |
8) Diaz, Melany | 2011 | 27:17.00 | -- | |
9) Adan, Melissa | 2010 | 27:36.00 | -- | |
10) Garvalosa, Liliana | 2011 | 27:36.00 | -- | |
5 | FL Miami Northwestern HS | 179 | ||
1) Wallen, Skyler Blue | 2009 | 20:20.00 | 9 | |
2) Williams, Naquia | 2009 | 21:52.00 | 19 | |
3) Streeter, Brianna | 2011 | 23:58.96 | 44 | |
4) Cooney, Sumaya | 2011 | 24:07.28 | 45 | |
5) Cooney, Nashamy | 2009 | 25:02.00 | 62 | |
Average Time: 23:04.05 -- Total Time: 1:55:20.24 -- 1-5 Split: 4:42 |
Top Returning Individuals Based on 2007 Performances (full list)