Coach Raposo's Outlook
Individuals
Just as we saw on the boys side, a meet with a huge amount of potential for fast performances, the same thing can be said for the girl's race. The past couple of years has seen just about two dozen female athlete crack that 19 minutes mark and this year shouldn't be any different.
Of course what I'm sure everyone wants to see is a big PR performance by Kathryn Flueher, Community School of Naples, seeing as how she hit 17 flat at last year's meet and ran 16:59 at last year's state meet. Could Ashley Brasovan's 16:41 meet / state record from 2006 be in jeopardy? I can't wait to watch and see!
Following Kathryn should be one heck of a competition between her sister Erika, last year's runner-up; Kacy Smith of Estero, the newly deemed stud queen after her tremendous 17:59 win at UF; Stephanie Schappert from Pope John Paul II, the reigning 2A State Champion; Nicole Carpio of Ransom Everglades who astounded everyone with her 17:50 performance last year; and I think the wild card here is Shelby Davidson of Cocoa Beach who just won the South Fork when Schappert dropped out for reasons unknown to me. I hope she's alright!
Teams
Now on the teams horizon, this should be a spectacular meet to watch unfold. Watching Lakewood Ranch and Estero go head-to-head at UF a couple of weeks ago was just remarkable as Lakewood Ranch took the early lead while Estero worked more from the back and pushed hard towards the front to get the win. Currently by virtual meet LWR has the edge, but by team average Estero still holds the best mark. But either way, these should be your top two teams as Holy Trinity is out-of-state at Great American.
Following the top two favorites will be the showdown between Lourdes and Plant who are the current 1-2 teams in Class 4A. Only one point separated them at FACA on opening weekend, so let's see whose training has put them over the top for this week! But if either one of them slip becareful as Fort Waton Beach or a young Cocoa Beach team might sneak up to snatch that third place trophy away. Top to bottom, both of the ROC races are going to be exciting to watch just as they are every year. Get ready for some racing!
Jason's Predictions
Over the past four or five years Florida's girls have been absolutely stellar on the national scene and so our Girls Race of Champions has seen some huge performances from national caliber and Foot Locker Nationals finalists like Ashley Brasovan, Kayla Hale, Emilie Amaro, Kathryn and Erika Fluehr, Shelby Hayes, Bona Jones, Brittany Koziara, Stephanie Schappert, and others. This year is going to be no different with most of the top females in the state in attendance.
Without any doubt Kathryn Fluehr is the favorite, she is about as much of a lock as you can get. Last year she was one of the top female distance runners in the country, being ranked in the top 5 in the nation for much of the cross country season and breaking into the 16s at state. Last spring she ran some pretty amazing amazing times on the oval: 10:18 3200 and 4:53 1600. Already this fall she cranked out a solo 17:18 where she was all alone from the gun... usually she at least has the benefit of having her sister, Erika, give her company for the first half of the race but the was all Kathryn and the clock.
Former Foot Locker national champion, Ashley Brasovan holds both the course and meet records. She ran the meet record of 16:41.42 back in 2006, when the race was under the lights at Ed Radice. Her course record was set in 2008 with a 16:46.66 stunner. That would be an awfully mighty feat to take down either of those, but it's possible!
Florida's other returning Foot Locker finalist is Erika Fluehr, who will be favored to do her part to repeat the 1-2 Fluehr sister finish from last season. Actually they finished 1-2 in every single race they competed in within the state of Florida last year!!! Erika had very impressive stats of her own last season... running in the 17s all year long, until Foot Locker Nationals when she ran an 18:34. That included a 17:17 personal best at regional, a 17:20 at Foot Locker South, and a 17:24 at the flrunners.com Invitational. It'll be tough for anyone to interupt this tandem.
Here is where it gets a little murky! Entering the season it was all Stephanie Schappert for the #3 returning female in the state. She followed a 2A state championship in cross country with a tremendous track season (bests of 10:49, 4:51, and 2:10) that earned her an invitation to the Nike Elite Summer Camp--only ten invitations were given out to who Nike considered to be the best high school distance runners nation wide! However, so far this year we have yet to get a solid picture of what kind of level she is at. After an impressive solo 18:22 at the Falcon Invitaitonal, she pulled out of the South Fork race last weekend, handing Shelby Davidson the uncontested victory. So what can she bring to the table this week? Time will tell, but if history is any indication she will be ready and will bring her A-Game. Schappert is competitive, tough, and plain out fiesty! Knock her down and she gets back up. She was fourth in the race last year with a 17:50, with three Foot Locker finalists in front of her. Look for her to be at that level or better on Saturday.
Next up... Kacy Smith, who has bolted up the charts this year with an undefeated season thus far. The sophomore has really just had her way with everyone that she has faced and frankly looks like she might have the guts to battle even the Fluehrs. Thanks to Doctor Bob's documentary we've come to know her personality as agressive and animated, which is just how she races. It's really going to be special to see what she can do against this field.
Another starlet whose stock has shot up like a rocket this fall is Shelby Davidson. After putting in an incredible summer, she has looked very impressive and is certainly going to position herself with the leaders and see what her legs can do. She was handed her only loss of the season at the hands of Smith at UF, where she ran an 18:21 PR--over a minute better than her 2009 season best. Even when compared to last track season, she's come extremely far and frankly is probably still learning how to race that fast! Don't be surprised to see another break-through performance.
Those five really appear to be at a level above the rest of the field. While there may be some sticking with them in the early goings, I would frankly be very surprised to see anything but Kathryn Fluehr separated out front and then this four-pack trying to break each other at the half way point.
The two others who may try to hang on and may even infiltrate this group are Nicole Carpio and Katherine Yost. Carpio has gotten off to a bit of a slow start this season, but that's really not anything abnormal for her... after all you don't win titles by running fast to start the season! If we're looking at history as a predictor of the future, Carpio has always come ready and put up a big day at flrunners! In fact, the last two seasons she has run her season best times at the flrunners.com Invitational, a 17:50 in 2008 and a 17:55 in 2009. So look for her to come swinging! Yost is kind of an unknown entity, being from Georgia and without an extensive career in the database to go on, but she's one of the top ranked runners in Georgia right now and I just kind of have a gut feeling she might be up there and try to challenge or at least see how long she can hang on.
The team battle will also be very interesting. You've got arguably the top two teams in the state in Lakewood Ranch and Estero going at it (although Holy Trinity would have something to say about that). On paper, Lakewood Ranch has the advantage. While they lack the firepower of Estero in the #1 position (Kacy Smith), they definitely make up for it with incredible 1-4 depth with the Lakewood Ranch #4 having a faster time this season than Estero's #2. Estero though only has 11 seconds between their #2 and their #5! I mean really... who knows?!? This is pretty much like what I said in the guy's race... it's all going to be decided on the #4 and #5 runners.
With all the attention solidly on the two favorites, Our Lady of Lourdes kind of has gotten a rare chance to hide back in the shadows... probably just the way they like it! But let's cast a little light on them! They've gotten out of the gate a little slow this year, but they have traditionally run very well at this meet. (And I might add are one of the very few teams who have been to all 11 years of the meet!!) It would take something fearsome from the entire pack, but to me it woudln't be a total shocker to see them steal the win.
Individuals
1. Kathryn Fluehr (Community School)
2. Erika Fluehr (Community School)
3. Kacy Smith (Estero)
4. Shelby Davidson (Cocoa Beach)
5. Stephanie Schappert (Pope John Paul)
6. Nicole Carpio (Ransom Everglades)
7. Katerine Yost (Norcross)
8. Emily Edwards (Canterbury)
9. Emily Ahrens (Vero Beach)
10. Sarah Spann (Ft. Myers)
Others to Watch:
Bridget Blake (Dr. Phillips), Grace VanDeGrift (Durant), Joanna McCoy (Coral Shores), Olivia Ortiz (Lakewood Ranch).
Teams
1. Lakewood Ranch
2. Estero
3. Our Lady of Lourdes
4. Norcross, GA
5. HB Plant
Others to Watch:
Ft. Walton Beach, Cocoa Beach, Niceville, Titusville.
Kacy Smith Video Interview
Last week after winning Ft. Myers Optimist... talking about flrunners.com Invitational.
Virtual Meet
Girls Team Rankings
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Rank Team Total 1 2 3 4 5 *6 *7 *8 *9
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1 FL Lakewood Ranch HS 95 7 9 18 19 42 112
Total Time: 1:37:39.81
Average: 19:31.96
2 FL Estero HS 111 2 22 25 30 32 59 60
Total Time: 1:37:08.79
Average: 19:25.76
3 FL Our Lady of Lourdes A 148 15 20 34 39 40 49 68 -- --
Total Time: 1:39:43.33
Average: 19:56.67
4 FL Fort Walton Beach HS 211 26 28 44 50 63 64 85 -- --
Total Time: 1:41:25.01
Average: 20:17
5 FL HB Plant HS 212 27 37 46 48 54 61 80 -- --
Total Time: 1:41:30.6
Average: 20:18.12
6 FL Cocoa Beach HS 212 4 21 53 57 77 87 106 -- --
Total Time: 1:40:28.05
Average: 20:05.61
7 FL Fort Myers HS 249 8 12 23 96 110 115
Total Time: 1:41:34.66
Average: 20:18.93
8 GA Norcross High School 249 6 38 47 75 83 111 132
Total Time: 1:41:38.14
Average: 20:19.63
9 FL Titusville HS 261 16 31 43 73 98 105 130
Total Time: 1:42:28
Average: 20:29.6
10 FL Niceville HS 282 29 55 62 66 70 74 117 -- --
Total Time: 1:43:11.88
Average: 20:38.38
Entries
Teams
Boone
Cocoa Beach
Community School of Naples
Dr. Phillips
Estero
Ferguson
Ft. Myers
Ft. Walton Beach
Geneva School
Hagerty
HB Plant
Lakewood Ranch
Lourdes
Naples
Niceville
Norcross, GA
Oak Hall
Ransom Everglades
Sarasota
South Fork
Spruce Creek
Titusville
Vero Beach
Individuals
Stephanie Schappert (Pope John Paul II)
Katelyn Greenleaf (Northside Christian)
Emily Edwards (Canterbury)
Joanna McCoy (Coral Shores)
Grace VanDeGrift (Durant)
Isabelle Amaro (West Broward)
Kelli Williams (Mitchell)
Laurel Brennan (North Broward)