Region-by-region previews for the 3A meets that begin on Friday.
3A-1 Preview
Chiles senior Rachel Givens had a great performance at the Panhandle Championships going sub 18 minutes. That was only her fourth meet of the year, so it will be interesting to see how she runs at regionals after winning her district championship in 19:32. Rachel Kling of Pace won the 3A-1 championship in 18:30 and was second to Givens at the Panhandle Championships. This one should be won in around 18:30 and beside Givens and Kling the Fort Walton Beach duo of freshman Emma Rudman and senior Ivy Chastain will be in the mix. Rudman was second to Kling at that meet. Elizabeth Mulford of Ocala Vanguard should be a contender as well. Nicknamed "racehorse" she finished first in 3A-4.
Could this be the year Chiles doesn't hoist the regional trophy? The virtual meet has a shootout between Fort Walton Beach and the Timberwolves. This race could come down to Chiles number four and five runners. FWB is projected to win, but Coach Gowan's girls don't know how to lose. Bartram Trail, Creekside, Nease, and Niceville should all move onto the state finals next week.
Seven guys under sixteen minutes means Sunny Hill Farms is going to be burning this weekend. Thomas Howell and NIck Morken have been bouncing back and forth betwen the first and second spots all season. Last week, Howell beat his teammate at districts. In 3A-2 it was a photo finish and hundredths of seconds that separated Chiles Cade Zimmerman from Leon's Sukhi Khosla. Gutsy races by both guys. Zimmerman and Khosla are good runners, but I think Morken and Howell are in the top ten in the state regardless of class. Howell triumps over Morken for the second week in a row.
Fort Walton Beach has one of the best 1-5 spreads in the entire state, just sixteen seconds. Tim Bulger, Alex Godfrey, Charlie Shackleford, Trey LaNasa, and Brian Day should all finish in the top twenty and give the Vikings the regional title. Chiles is expected to finish as the runner-up with Leon, Creekside, Niceville, and Stanton Prep rounding out the top six.
Girls Individual Rankings - Girls Team Rankings
Boys Individual Rankings - Boys Team Rankings
3A-2 Preview
Harvard bound Nikita Shah leads a talented group of runners at 3A Region 2. The Wiregrass Ranch senior has ran consistently around 18:30 for most of the season and has a personal best of 17:48.50 that she set at the flrunners.com Race of Champions. Last year, she finished second at this regional and went onto place fourth at state. She should win this race fairly easy. University of Florida committ Taylor Tubbs of Sebring has a personal best of 18:53.10. Her biggest challenge will come from the younger sister of UCF freshman Anne-Marie Blaney, Catherine. Also in the top five should be Claudio Cancello of Mitchell and Angelina Grebe of Sarasota.
Shah and teammate Berlin Waters give Wiregrass Ranch the team title. The squad will place all five of its runners in the top thirty. Winter Springs guided by Rachel Singer should secure the runner-up spot. George Jenkins and Sickles look evenly matched and will fight it out for third and fourth. Three teams St. Clous, Sarasota, and Lecanto will fight for the final two spots.
The favorites from this race will come out of 3A District 6. The Land O'Lakes duo of Travis Nichols and Tyler Stahl have the fastest times coming into the year, but last week were out done by a pair from Sarasota. Zackery Summerall is coming off the district championship and Courtland Bernard a runner-up finish. After that performance they look like the two to beat, but don't count out Nichols and Stahl. Others to watch include Sickles senior Abdin Fator, Steinbrenner's Tyler Bess-Lima and Matt Magee, and Emias Bireda of Wiregrass Ranch. All have gone under 16:10 this season.
The team race will come down to Sarasota and Steinbrenner. It will be less than double digit points separating the two with the slight advantage to Sarasota based on the depth of their one thru five runners. Land O'Lakes, Wiregrass Ranch, and Sickles are sure bets to make the top five with Edgewater, Winter Springs, and George Jenkins battling it out for the sixth and final spot.
Girls Individual Rankings - Girls Team Rankings
Boys Individual Rankings - Boys Team Rankings
3A-3 Preview
Emily Edwards of Ft. Myers and Kacy Smith of Estero are cross-town rivals who will be going at it for the regional title. Kacy had been undefeated versus Emily for all of 2010 and 2011, but this season has been a different story. Edwards has stepped it up big time and beaten Smith five out of seven times they've faced this season, including a large margin of victory at the county championship two weeks ago. With personal bests of 17:43 (Edwards) and 17:47 (Smith) and the two peaking for this week and next... it should be a great one!
Three others have an outside shot to contend, but likely will be battling for the third spot. Kacy's teammate Katy G Solis, who recently joined Kacy in committing to attend Ole Miss next year, has been solid all season. So has Caroline Barlow of Gulf Coast, who has given Katy a share several times this season but not yet defeated her in six tries. And Amanda Spring of Northeast has been running really well these last few weeks including a district championship last week in a personal best 18:44 and second place to Alex Eaton at the St. Petersburg City Championship.
Estero should dominate the team battle and could have as many as six girls under 20 minutes and three or even four under 19 on an ideal day. Second through fourth place will be tight between Lakewood Ranch, Ft. Myers, and Gulf Coast. And the final two spots being anyone's guess: Northeast, Ida Baker, Cypress Lake, Naples, and Boca Ciega are all right there.
Despite the recent upset, for the boys Carlos Miranda of Palmetto Ridge will be the favorite over Tyler Bennett of Ft. Myers. Miranda ran his tail off at flrunners earlier in the season against most of the best competition in the state. Despite recent losses to Andrews Arroyo and Bennett, he is working on a November peak and hoping to be on the plane to Foot Locker Nationals in December.
Bennett and teammate Ace Brown will ensure the Green Wave starts out with five points or less after two runners. With Dean McGregor and a solid staff behind, Ft. Myers should slide into the regional championship position feet first. Naples, Estero, and Palmetto Ridge are pretty solid picks to advance to state in the two through four positions. But, just like the girls, then it gets a bit dicey. Based on recent performances, Osceola and Northeast are probably favorites to grab those last two qualifying positions over Lakewood Ranch, Ida Baker, or Charlotte.
Girls Individual Rankings - Girls Team Rankings
Boys Individual Rankings - Boys Team Rankings
3A-4 Preview
Last week at district, the Merritt Island girls went 1-2-3-5-6 to win with just 17 points. It may not look too incredibly different! Going into the season Elizabeth Harper was set to be Merritt's #1 runner after a very strong 2011-2012 cross country and track season, along with a strong start to this season. After a rough middle of the season, Harper is starting to get back into form. Could this week be hers to jump back on top? If not her, teammates Sarah Hammond and Nina Li have been running exceptionally well lately. Those three could all finish in the top five this week. Beth Hardcastle and Laurie Scott of South Fork, along with Rebecca Fleeman of Eau Galie will be hoping to break up the party though.
Merritt Island will finish things off with Julia Magill and Caroline Cubero, who I believe could both grab top 15 spots. South Fork is a pretty solid bet for third with Hardcastle, Scott, and freshman Emily Elkin up front perhaps all in the top ten. Cardinal Gibbons and Archbishop McCarthy have been running well and could grab three and four. Leaving two spots to battle between Melbourne, Jensen Beach, Marthin County, and Miami Northwestern. And those four are really too close to call.
On the boys side, the first place position doesn't get much clearer than this. Belen Jesuit will be looking at a potential 1-5 sweep with Avery Lopez, Fabian Tomas, Michael Magoulas, Ryan Rodriguez, and Alex Issac. Since October 15, they have nine guys with AVERAGE times of under 17 minutes. Game over.
The Martin County boys, led by junior Tyler O'Brien, have been next best consistently this year, though Pembroke Pines looked awfully good at their district meet. After that, look for Melbourne and Jensen Beach to be close at four and five. Most ways I cut the numbers Archbishop McCarthy takes the final qualifying spot, but depending on how it pans out it could also be Cardinal Gibbons (who actually defeated McCarthy at district on the sixth runner), South Fork, or even Merritt Island.
Girls Individual Rankings - Girls Team Rankings
Boys Individual Rankings - Boys Team Rankings