In the Title Hunt...
- Emily Edwards (Ft. Myers)
- Nikita Shah (Wiregrass Ranch)
- Kacy Smith (Estero)
- Rachel Givens (Chiles)
- Katy G. Solis (Estero)
Fighting for the Podium...
- Estero
- Fort Walton beach
- Chiles
Individual Analysis
Fort Myers junior Emily Edwards has gone head to head with Kacy Smith and Katy G. Solis of Estero seven times this season. Familiarity should not be a problem when the group hits Apalachee Regional Park for a state finals showdown. Edwards and Smith looks to be the favorites in this race, with Solis pushing hanging with them for the beginning of the race. Of the seven matchups, Edwards has won five. Her biggest win coming at the flrunners.com Race of Champions where she beat not just Smith and the best runners in 3A, but most of the top girls in the state. Her personal best of 17:43.80 from that meet still stands. That was the only meeting of the year, Edwards, Smith, and Solis had a chance to run against Wiregrass Ranch's Nikita Shah. Shah led a majority of the race before Edwards used those long legs to out kick her in the end. Smith's biggest win of the year might be one that plays a great role in how she finishes this weekend. The Estero senior won the FSU Invitational/Pre-State on the very same course she will run on Saturday. Her time of 18:06 was six seconds faster than Edwards and twenty-six seconds faster than Shah. Last year, Edwards had a rough state meet and finished 60th. Smith finished eighth and Shah was the top performer of the group finishing fourth.
Another runner, who looks to be in the mix is Rachel Givens of Chiles. She dipped under eighteen minutes at the Panhandle Championships and is coming off of a district and regional championship. Givens went 18:32.99 at regionals and looks to be peaking at just the right time. Coach Gowan has had a runner in the top five for the past several years with the likes of Lily Williams, Carly Thomas, and Givens. Never count out a runner in maroon and white. Other runners to watch out for who could place in the top ten are Ivy Chastain and Emma Rudman of Fort Walton Beach, Rachel Kling of Pace, Taylor Tubbs of Sebring, Elizabeth Mulford of Vanguard, and Caroline Barlow of Gulf Coast.
The 3A girls race might be one of the toughest regardless of class. Edwards, Smith, and Shah all can break eighteen minutes and I expect the final time to be right around eighteen. This one will be very close and I think it comes down to a kick at the end with Edwards edging out Shah, and Smith for her first state title and the second Green Wave girl to win the title joining Sarah Spann who accomplished the feat in 2010.
Team Analysis
This one is Estero's hands down. Coach Sommer has built a dynasty over there having won the last three state titles (2009, 2010 in 2A , 2011 in 3A). Last year, many people thought it would be Chiles winning their fourth in a row, but Estero had something to say about that. This year's team is as strong as last years led by Smith and Katy G. Solis. Those insane workouts they do down in southwest Florida usually have the girls peaking at the right time. Katie Slater, Bethany Jenkins, and freshman Daley Cline have been solid enough for the Wildcats this year, but I expect them to really step up on Saturday to give this senior class their fourth straight ring. Fort Walton Beach has a one-two tandem of senior Ivy Chastain and freshman Emma Rudman who figure to place in the top ten. They have a great 1-5 spread of just seventy-two seconds, but number four and five, Autumn White and April Polite will have to close the gap if they want a remote shot at Estero. Chiles and Wiregrass Ranch look to battle it out for third and fourth place.