The FHSAA Cross Country State Finals is this weekend, so let's see what our volunteer pollster's have to say after taking a look at all of the Region meets from this past week. Please keep in mind that all of these rankings are just for fun and I thank all of our pollsters for helping put together all of these rankings throughout the year! Great job to them, congratulations to everyone who qualified to state this weekend, and good luck on Saturday morning!
1A Girls Rankings
By: Mark Caulfield, Circle Christian School, markscaul@aol.com
Team Rankings:
Commentary: Holy Trinity looks solid to repeat and get their 9th State Title in 16 years. They have been strong throughout the season and show no letting up. The Runner-up podium spot seems to be shaping up with a 3-4 team battle that anyone of which could take between Circle Christian, Maclay School, Oak Hall, and Westminster Christian. After that, it looks like a good tight battle for 6th between Providence School, First Academy, and Community School of Naples. The final 2 Top 10 spots are also up for grabs between multiple teams including Boca Raton Christian, St. John's Country Day, Bishop Snyder, and Calvary Christian. The keys in most of these matchups remain the #4 and #5 runners where the most team points come. The meet should be exciting! Congratulations to all the qualifying teams and best of luck to everyone. Finish strong!
Rank. (Previous Rank) Team, Region = Comments
1. (1), Holy Trinity, 3 = Region 3 Champion with 19:29 team average (19:57 at FSU) on the fast and familiar HTA course. Has been the top 1A team wire to wire and should repeat as State Champion again this Saturday. Team could have 3 in the Top 10 and 4 in the Top 20 and has gotten stronger throughout.
2. (3), Circle Christian, 3 = Region 3 Runner-up with 19:50 team average on a shortened HTA course. Team has been consistent all season and is better now than their 20:20 average at FSU. Will need to be strong up front and maintain a tight pack with a small gap split to make it to the podium.
3. (2), Maclay School, 1 = Region 1 Champion with 20:30 (SB) team average at the fast Alligator Park course. A storied program with 5 State Cross Country titles and 4 Runner-up finishes in the last 17 years that is looking to add to those totals. Strong up front at #1 and #2 but the key may come at #5.
4. (5), Oak Hall, 2 = 1st Place in Region 2 with 20:44 team average on the moderate Holloway Park course. Season Best of 20:38 at FSU. Team is coming on at the right time and will once again look put it all together at ARP. Experience, talent, and tradition will be their strength on Saturday.
5. (4), Westminster Christian, 4 = Easy win in Region 4 with 36 points and a 21:52 team average on the slow Westminster course. Season Best 20:41 at FLrunners.com. Team has the potential to be on the podium but will need to put it all together in Tallahassee on Saturday.
6. (8), Providence School, Region 1, Region 1 Runner-up with 20:49 (SB) team average on the Alligator Park course. Team has a solid Top 3 and is capable of being in the Top 5.
7. (6), First Academy, 3 = 3rd Place in Region 3 with a 20:34 team average. Team sets up similar to Maclay where the top 2 need to run well and could come down to #5 to determine how high they place.
8. (7), Community School of Naples, 2 = 2nd Place in Region 2 with a 21:27 team average. Season Best 21:06 at FLrunners. A strong Senior led team looking to cap their career with a great team finish.
9. (11) Boca Raton Christian, 4 = 2nd Place in Region 4 with 22:04 team average on the slow Westminster course. Young and talented team that will need a big run from #5 to move up.
10. (14), St. Johns Country Day, 1 = 3rd Place in Region 1 with 21:17 (SB) team average. A strong run from #4 and #5 will secure Top 10 finish.
11. (9), Bishop Snyder, 1 = 4th Place in Region 1 with 21:21 team average. Solid team pack that just needs a little help at #5 to break into Top 10.
12. (13), Calvary Christian, 2 = 4th Place in Region 2 with 21:27 (SB) team average. Team had a great run at Regionals with strong efforts from Top 3. Helps to start meet with just 1-2 points at #1.
13. (12), Evangelical Christian, 2 = 3rd Place in Region 2 with 21:45 (SB) team average. Peaking at the right time with a great effort at Regionals.
14. (17), Kings Academy, 4 = 3rd Place in Region 4 with 22:35 team average on slow course just off their season best of 22:31 at Highlands Quad.
15. (19), Indian Rocks, 2 = 5th Place in Region 2 with 22:02(SB) team average. Balanced team with 1:10 Top 5 split is their strength.
16. (20), Canterbury School, 2 = 6th Place in Region 2 with Season Best 22:26 team average.
17. (18), Miami Country Day, 4 = 4th Place in Region 2 with Season Best 23:03 team average.
18. (16), Lakeland Christian, 2 = 4th Place in Region 3 with 21:38 (SB) team average.
19. (15), Father Lopez, 3 = 5th Place in Region 3 with 22:05 (SB) team average.
20. (NR), Benjamin School, 3 = 6th Place in Region 3 with 22:13 (SB) team average.
21. (NR), Westminster Academy, 4 = 5th Place in Region 4 with 23:48 team average.
22. (NR), Duval Charter School, 1 = 5th Place in Region 1 with 22:51 team average earning their first appearance at the State CC Meet.
23. (NR), Pensacola Christian, 1 = 6th Place in Region 1 with 22:53 team average.
24. (NR), Palmer Trinity Academy, 4 = 6th Place in Region 4 with 24:25 team average.
Individual Rankings:
Commentary: The run to the State Title could be an epic battle to the finish. An ever so slight edge to Hannah Brookover of Calvary Christian for the win over Rebecca Clark of Mount Dora Academy based on previous matchups (2-1). But after watching Clark run away from #4 ranked Shelby Smith of Holy Trinity at the Region 3 Meet it is hard not to go her way. Looks like a toss-up. Grace Blair of Oak Hall and Shelby Smith look to have a say in the matter following runner-up finishes to both in their respective Regions. Both have the talent and speed if it is close at the end. Lindsay Tomaini of Community School of Naples looks good at #5 and then after her is a host of talent looking to secure a Top 10 finish. Maya Espinosa of Baker looks to be the strongest in the group with former medalist Caroline Willis of Maclay and Samantha Folio looking to make their way back to the podium. There have been a lot of new faces and young talent emerging over the last half of this season making this such an exciting and eagerly anticipated event to see who will step up. Good luck to all the individuals as each looks close out this great cross country with an huge effort. Finish Strong!
Rank. (Previous Rank) Name, Grade -- Team = Comments
1. (1), Hannah Brookover, 12th, Calvary Christian = Region 2 Champion in 18:43 over the Holloway Park Course (Moderate). Season Best of 18:13 at FSU.
2. (2), Rebecca Clark, 9th, Mount Dora Christian = Region 3 Champion in 17:55 (PR). Season Highlights include finishing in the Top 10 in the Big "3" (UF, FLR, FSU). Young tough talented competitor.
3. (3), Grace Blair, 10th, Oak Hall = Runner-up in Region 2 in 19:00. Season Best 18:34 at FSU. She is running well late in the season and has the incentive of leading her team towards the podium.
4. (4), Shelby Smith, 12th, Holy Trinity = Runner-up in Region 3 in 18:27. Season Highlights includes 18:45 at FSU and a Season Best of 18:25 at West Orange.
5. (5), Lindsay Tomaini, 12th, Community School of Naples = 3rd Place in Region 2 in 19:27. Season Best of 18:55 at FLrunners. Talented Senior looking for a big finish to the season.
6. (6), Maya Espinosa, 8th, Baker School = Region 1 Champion in 19:09. Season Best of 18:58 at FSU. Finished 5th in 2014 and could easily be back into the Top 5 with another great race.
7. (8), Kaytlyn Buschman, 10th, Pensacola Christian = Runner-up in Region 1 in 19:14 (PR). Has been running strong through the State Series positioning herself for a potential Top 10 finish.
8. (13), Lindsay James, 7th, Maclay School = 3rd Place in Region 1 in 19:23. Season Best of 19:05 at FSU. Looks to cap off a great year with a strong showing on Saturday.
9. (11), Audrey Woods, 9th, Providence School = 4th Place in Region 1 in 19:24 (PR). Consistent every race. Her 16th place State finish last year has her eyeing a medal this time around.
10. (9), Sydney Smith, 12th, Holy Trinity Academy = 3rd Place in Region 3 in 19:03 (SB). Looking to improve upon last season's 19th place State finish and cap off a great year.
11. (7), Caroline Willis, 11th, Maclay School = 5th Place in Region 1 in 19:33. Ran 19:11 at FSU and has the talent and big race experience to improve upon her 9th Place State finish in 2014.
12. (12), Jasmine Hinapie, 8th, Boca Raton Christian = Region 4 Champion in 20:37. Season Best 19:46 at Martin County. Has finished in the Top 3 in every race run this season.
13. (10), Samantha Folio, 11th, Holy Trinity = 4th Place in Region 3 in 19:14. A medalist in last year's State Meet with the talent and drive to repeat once again.
14. (17) Josie Garba, 9th, Tampa Prep = 4th Place in Region 2 (Holloway Park) in 20:07. Season Best of 19:44 at Indian Rocks Open. Looks to continue strong showings in the State Series.
15. (18), Olivia Rovin, 11th, Shorecrest Prep = 5th Place in Region 2 (Holloway Park) in 20:08. Season Best of 19:50 at FSU. Looking to improve upon last year's 13th Place State finish.
16. (15) Sinkenesh Parker, 7th Circle Christian = 5th Place in Region 3 in 19:21 (PR). Talented young and competitive runner looking to finish season strong on November 7.
17. (27), Mackenzie Glenn, 6th, St. John's Country Day = 6th in Region 1 in 19:55. Talented 6th grader is coming on strong at the end of the season with two big efforts after a month layoff.
18. (NR), Moriah Oliveira, 8th, Evangelical Christian = 6th Place in Region 2 in 20:16 (SB). Finished 29th in last year's State Meet in 20:06.
19. (26) Karah Hammontree, 12th Circle Christian = Finished 6th in Region 3 in 19:28 (PR). Getting healthy and looking to finish her Senior season strong.
20. (25), Marcella Perez, 11th, St. Francis = 7th Place in Region 2 in 20:21. Season Best of 20:06 District 11 Meet. Looking strong in the State Series.
21. (23), Isabel Crist, 8th, First Academy = 7th Place in Region 3 in 19:44 (PR). Has showed up big this season and continues to improve while looking for a big finish at State.
22. (28), Kenzie Farrish, 11th, Holy Trinity = 8th Place in Region 3 in 19:45. Great Region run helps solidifies top ranked team in State for a repeat.
23. (NR), Stephanie Fries, 12th, Calvary Christian = 8th Place in Region 2 in 20:32 (PR). Big Region run has the Senior looking to finish cross country career with a bang.
24. (NR), Helena Cummings, 8th, St. Johns Country Day = 7th place in Region 1 in 20:13 with big showing.
25. (NR), Courtney Barber, 10th, The Pine School = 9th Place in Region 3 in 19:48. Big late season jump shows the talent coming forward at the right time.
26. (16), Andrea Zumpano, 12th, Westminster Christian = 2nd Place in Region 4 in 21:20. Season best of 20:06 at FSU. Looking to lead her team to Top 5 Finish.
27. (NR), Megan Brais, 8th, Westminster Christian = 3rd Place in Region 4 in 21:22 at Region 4. Season Best of 20:43 at FLrunners.
28. (29), Kyra Wells, 8th, Westminster Christian = 4th Place Finish in Region 4 (Westminster) in 21:22. Season Best of 20:27 at FSU.
29. (24), Caroline Crist, 10th, First Academy = 10th Place in Region 3 in 19:52 (PR). Big District win and Region PR has her looking good to improve on last year's 24th place finish.
30. (NR), Michaela Scurti, 12th, Bishop Snyder = 8th Place in Region 1 in 20:28.
Athletes to Watch for:
Molly McCann, 11th, Maclay; Kathleen Whitworth, 12th, Maclay; Lindsay Rosenbery, 9th, Oak Hall; Lauren Perry, 11th, Oak Hall; Viola Barquilla, 6th, Providence School; Jaden Ault, 9th Circle Christian; Brooke McEwen, 8th, Circle Christian; Claire Kennedy, 7th, Westminster Christian; Natasha Strump, 11th, Westminster Christian; Sophie Barry, 12th, Community School of Naples.
2A Girls Rankings
By: Mike Becker, multiple high schools
Team Rankings:
Commentary: If this were Fantasy Cross Country (like fantasy football) I would have won some money last week, but did not go 24/24…20/24 not bad though…. several surprises…. In my home base of region 4, Pine Crest has been hit by injuries to the Yareds. PC won handily without Tsion finishing, but will need her in top 10 to even have a shot at Bolles… Lincoln Park, Cardinal Gibbons and North Broward Prep all were seeded out of the top 6 with a virtual meet, showing once again that South Florida courses are the longest and hottest, and are MUCH slower than Central Florida courses. Perhaps the maligned wheeler Raposo has a point about courses in the Central Part of state being short? Anyway, adding in a hot day and some home turf cooking …. two Broward teams emerged from the sauna.. Prognostications did get Region 2 correct with Eastside strutting its feathers. Lemon Bay squeaks out of Region 3 going 1,2,3,9, 41 (with three runners sub 20:00) and region 3 predictions go 5/6….oh for a 5th runner…. Immokalee close but out…..Region 1 went by the books with Bolles only missing sweep by a couple of spots. 5/6 on prognostication here with South Walton edging Wakulla. Solid second for a peaking Episcopal squad.
- Given recent performances, history, course and fact that the Yareds didn't complete Region 4 race, Bolles is a prohibitive favorite this week. Their depth and experience is tremendous. That being said, if the planets align, Pine Crest can win. After these two teams, Ransom is in the driver's seat for 3 with a very outside shot to be close to second if their freshman step up. If anyone can knock Ransom out of third it is either Lemon Bay or young kids from Episcopal. Here are the top 24 in an educated order based not on times or season performances, but where they are now.
Rank) Team- Comments
1) Bolles- will be very hard to beat them
2) Pine Crest- they are undefeated this year at all levels though
3) Ransom -- Always tough at State
4) Episcopal- young team performs great last week
5) St Brendans- don't be fooled by slow times in sauna in region 4
6) Eastside- best team ever?
7) Lemon Bay- with a top 4 that could have been close to podium and can be clos eif 5th personal bests herself by a minute
8) Bishop Kenny
9) Lake Highland
10) Tavares
11) Academy of Holy names
12) Trinity Prep
13) North Broward Prep
14) Lincoln park
15) Bishop Moore
16) Frostpoof
17) Berkeley Prep
18) West Florida tech
19) Villages
20) Lely
21) Cardinal Gibbons
22) labelle
23) FL HS
24) South Walton
Prediction: I will go on a limb and predict Bolles 40, Pine Crest (assuming a healthy Tsion Yared) 48….. Ransom 132
Individual Rankings:
Commentary… a few surprises last week but basically top kids showed little drama. Possible drama this week… as there are several state track and cross country champions and runners up lurking in the field… this includes and is not limited to Caitlin Collier, Tsion Yared, Lauren Archer, Skye Zeller, Beatriz Ruan, Julia Montgomery, Mackenzie Wilson,.. Certainly the best AA field in recent history…
Rank) Name- Comments
1) Caitlin Collier -- Solid favorite who is untouched by AA runners in track and cross country for a year now. Odds are she will have a gold medal around her neck Saturday….. and scary is that she is only a sophomore
2) But if anyone has a real shot at an upset…its Alyssa Pujals who dominated the best region field in a steam bath . Crystal ball gives Pujals a silver medal.
3) Not knowing where to place Yared makes this murky… if she is healthy enough to be her best, she belongs here at 3… So I will leave her here. But if she unable to defend her throne.. it's a grab bag between
4) Leigha Torino who has proven herself to be a big meet performer
5) Amanda Beach -- Melbourne- who ventured into the steam bath and performed so well
6) Lauren Archer -- Ransom 6 time podium already
7,8) Mackenzie Wilson( Bolles) , Julia Montgomery( Pine Crest) … experienced harriers who need every point for their teams. Of course they will be neck and somewhere down the stretch as they always are in big races
9) Natalie Varela- Gulliver.. Coach Ward will have her ready for the big stage
10) Nicole Matisyk- inconsistent but can be as high as 1 actually… Her 18:37 shows she is capable of a top 3 medal
11) Skye Zeller- Space Coast
12) Ally Hajda Bolles
13) Suzanne Danheim -- Bolles late season runner evidently
14) Grace Gerry -- Bishop Kenny
15) Maggie Rice- Newberry
16, 17) Abby Welch or Weinfeld from lemon Bay who seem to have run together last week?
18) Rachel Shapirto- Bolles
19) Katie Pinnell- North Broward Prep
20) Beatriz Ruan -- Ransom Everglades
3A Girls Rankings
By: Steve Farnsworth, Lecanto HS, farnsworthfarm@yahoo.com
State Meet Team Rankings:
Commentary: The rankings are much easier this week as all the teams ran hard at regionals and there are only four courses and conditions to evaluate. Only the times and performances from regionals meets are listed, although head to head competition and consistency in performance have been considered in making the rankings. Course adjustments: Region 2 (Ocala Horse Park) seems to be a very average course and will not be adjusted. Region 1 (Alligator Lake) may be slightly fast, and Region 4 (South Fork HS) may be slightly slow -- no adjustments for these courses but Region 1 times may be slightly discounted, while Region 4 times may be given slightly more emphasis. Region 3 (Holloway Park) was slow as usual but not as much in warmer weather -- 20 seconds will be deducted from times on this course.
Rank, Team, Regional Team Average and Place/Comments
1. Chiles, 19:41, R1 #2. The Timberwolves are probably not the top team in 3A on a neutral site. But the state meet is not on a neutral site, and it is on Chiles' home course at Apalachee Regional Park, where the Timberwolves always run well. Chiles beat Niceville here at Pre-State earlier this year and is favored to do it again.
2. Niceville, 19:36, R1 #1. If the state meet was held at Alligator Lake, the Eagles would be the favorite. They beat Chiles at the regional meet there for the second time this year. Unfortunately, the state meet is at ARP, and Niceville will likely have to settle for the runner-up spot.
3. Ponte Vedra, 19:57, R1 #3. The Sharks ran strong again at regionals, but don't quite have the firepower to overcome Chiles and Niceville.
4. Ft. Myers, 20:26 (-20), R3 #1. The Green Wave's freshmen have kept them near the top of the rankings, but it's too much to ask them to deliver a state title.
5. Creekside, 20:14, R1 #4. The Knights are peaking at the end of the season, but will likely have to settle for a top five finish.
6. Columbia, 20:16, R1 #5. The Tigers ran very well at their regional, but will be hard pressed to move any higher.
7. Merritt Island, 20:38, R4 #1. The Region 4 champs Mustangs are expected to finish in the top ten.
8. Ft. Walton Beach, 20:23, R1 #6. The Vikings have been up and down all year, but did not expect to finish sixth in their region, even if it was the toughest.
9. Seabreeze, 20:31, R2 #1. The Sandcrabs were the surprise winners of Region 2, with their best performance of the year as a team and as individuals.
10. Osceola (Seminole), 20:52 (-20), R3 #2. The Warriors should cap off a great season with a top ten finish.
11. Ocala Vanguard, 20:47, R2 #3. The Knights lost a tiebreaker for second in Region 2 when their No.4 runner had a bad race, but could rebound and finish in the top ten.
12. Estero, 21:14 (-20), R3 #3. The Wildcats struggled a bit at Pre-State and will find it hard to crack the top ten.
13. Palmetto Ridge, 21:17 (-20), R3 #4. The Bears should finish in the top fifteen.
14. Land O'Lakes, 20:59, R2 #2. The Gators had their best race of the year at regionals and are definitely top-fifteen material.
15. Miami Northwestern, 21:21, R4 #2. The Bulls ran surprising strong at their regional and are a top fifteen contender.
16. East Lake, 21:44 (-20), R3 #5. The Eagles should cap a good season with a top-20 finish.
17. South Fork, 21:34, R4 #3. The Bulldogs have worked their way up into top-20 contention.
18. Charlotte, 21:59 (-20), R3 #6. The Tarpons won the battle for the last spot in Region 3 and a chance for a top-20 finish.
19. Mater Academy, 21:29, R4 #4. The Lions have a strong 1-2 punch, but not enough depth to move much higher.
20. Dwyer, 21:53, R4 #5. The Panthers are the last of the projected top-20 finishers.
21. Matanzas, 22:06, R2 #4. The Pirates should be happy to make the state meet and not expect much more.
22. Harmony, 22:08, R2 #5. The Longhorns have a strong top two, but lack the depth to finish any higher.
23. West Shore, 22:17, R4 #6. The Wildcats came on strong at the end of the season to qualify for the state meet and should just enjoy it.
24. Mitchell, 22:34, R2 #6. The Mustangs squeaked out the last spot in Region 2 over three other teams and shouldn't expect anything other than to enjoy the state meet.
Individual Rankings:
Commentary: The regional times and the course adjustments are being used in the same way as in the team rankings. Regional time is listed, but is not the sole factor in rankings - head to head competition, and consistency in times is also considered.
Rank, (Previous Rank) Name, Grade, Team, Regional time and place / Comments
1. (4) Kristlin Gear, 11, Ft. Myers, 18:46(-20), R3 #1. Ran well at Pre-State earlier this year and looked strong at her regional. Will likely go out hard up front and challenge the even-pacers to catch her.
2. (1) Brittany Gill, 12, Dillard, 18:39, R4 #1. Wasn't pushed at regional, will likely run with Gear until one of them drops off.
3. (5) Kara Funke, 11, Leesburg, 18:34, R2 #1. Won from the front at Region 2, could win here if she doesn't get too far behind the leaders.
4. (2) Claire Moritz, 10, Ponte Vedra, 18:44, R1 #1. Very consistent runner that doesn't have bad meets.
5. (3) Bridget Morse, 10, Columbia, 18:46, R1 #2. Another consistent runner that should be in the top five.
6. (7) Emma Tucker, 12, Chiles, 18:54, R1 #3. Could go much higher if she can repeat her Pre-State performance.
7. (8) Kelly Aponte, 12, St. Augustine, 18:55, R1 #4. Peaking at end of season, but hasn't got back to 2014 form yet.
8. (NR) Vanessa Bolen, 9, Harmony, 19:00, R2 #2. Up and down runner had tremendous race at Region 2, but may not be able to hang on to top ten spot.
9. (17) Natalie Abernathy, 9, Land O'Lakes, 19:01, R2 #3. Got new PR at Region 2, but didn't run as strong at Pre-state.
10. (16) Maddie Fulmer, 12, Ft. Walton Beach, 19:00, R1 #5. Up and down runner got her best 5K time of year at regionals.
11. (20) Kayla Easterly, 11, N. Ft. Myers, 19:21 (-20), R3 #2. Another up and down runner with a great regional run and a good race at Pre-State.
12. (22) Kianna Bonnet, 12, Seabreeze, 19:06, R2 #4. Had best race of season at regionals and is peaking at the right time.
13. (14) Hannah Evans, 11, Ocala Vanguard, 19:11, R2 #5. Has been improving every meet.
14. (11) Maggie Parrish, 12, Chamberlain, 19:34 (-20), R3 #3. Had her best race of the season at Pre-State.
15. (NR) Hannah Schneidewind, 10, Niceville, 19:17, R1 #6. Set a new PR at regionals.
16. (13) Alexandra Wallace, 12, Chiles, 19:17, R1 #7. Will likely run much better on home course.
17. (NR) Carter Page, 12, Gainesville, 19:17, R2 #5. Set a significantly better PR at regionals.
18. (NR) Claudia Howes, 12, Niceville, 19:17, R1 #8. Also got a big PR at regionals.
19. (12) Haley Kling, 11, Pace, 19:17, R1 #9. Up and down runner is looking for a top-20 finish.
20. (15) Jennifer Lima, 11, East Lake, 19: 37 (-20), R3 #4. Has a shot at a top-20 finish.
21. (23) Emma Grantges, 12, Osceola (Seminole), 19:38 (-20), R3 #5. Still in contention for a top-20 spot.
22. (25) Tara Openshaw, 10, Creekside, 19:19, R1 #10. Up and down runner could finish higher or lower.
23. (24) Lauren Stanford, 11, Bartram Trail, 19:20, R1 #11. Should finish in the top 25.
24. (18) Abby Reimer, 12, Ponte Vedra. 19:20, R1 #12. Has been rebounding from mid-season slump.
25. (6) Rahyah Andressohn, 8, Mater Academy, 19:29, R4 #2. Did not run well at regional without someone to run with, but should place much higher at state meet.
On the Bubble:
Shelby Lindsay, 11, Choctawhatchee, 19:21, R1 #13
Brooke Crane, 12, Ft. Walton Beach, 19:22, R1 #14
Kaitlin Rocker, 12, Creekside, 19:27, R1 #15
Tyra Boyd, 12, Pine Ridge, 19:29, R2 #7
4A Girls Rankings
By: Ryan Raposo, John A. Ferguson HS, ryanraposo@gmail.com
Team Rankings:
Commentary- I've been looking at and crunching all kinds of numbers throughout the season and especially the last few days. Rather than keep it all to myself, I am going to provide a few different rankings for everyone so they all can see what I've been looking at. Starting with the least relevant and working my way to the most relevant it shall be a Database Virtual Meet (based on the extremely polluted flrunners database,) to Virtual Rankings based on Region Results (without and with course adjustments, because some regions are running close to a 3 mile, while others are running a true 5k. Either way, I provided both just so the course length deniers can get their hopes up before coming back down to reality on Saturday), to a full-on State Mock Meet based on Region Results (with course adjustments and a Mock Meet Score), to finally my final Overall Team State Rankings based on all of the above, with commentary. So take each with a grain of salt and remember it really doesn't matter anyway! Good luck on Saturday everyone!
Side Note: Coach Caulfield, the 1A pollster, pointed out to me that I correctly identified 22 of the 24 teams that qualified to state (the top 6 teams in each Region), tied with himself for 1A Girls and Coach Pino for 3A Boys. And even more impressive, I correctly identified 32 of the top 32 teams in my Region rankings (the top 8 teams in each Region). Good to know I'm getting something right after doing these rankings the last ten years!
Database Virtual Meet, based on Season Bests (Flrunners Database):
#) Team- Score: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
1) Winter Park - 43: 1, 5, 10, 13, 14
2) Dr. Phillips- 114: 4, 6, 33, 34, 37
3) Sarasota- 129: 12, 16, 25, 31, 45
4) Wharton- 141: 15, 21, 23, 40, 42
5) West Orange- 165: 3, 17, 18, 56, 71
6) HB Plant- 199: 24, 28, 46, 47, 54
7) Mandarin- 230: 9, 20, 38, 72, 91
8) Winter Springs- 241: 11, 19, 49, 55, 107
9) St. Thomas- 243: 2, 8, 59, 79, 95
10) Newsome- 260: 26, 50, 58, 61, 62
11) Sarasota Riv.- 282: 29, 43, 60, 73, 77
12) Lourdes- 284: 44, 48, 52, 66, 74
13) Steinbrenner- 298: 22, 41, 53, 85, 97
14) Hagerty- 374: 7, 39, 90, 117, 123
15) Ferguson- 382: 36, 68, 79, 100, 101
16) Vero Beach- 465: 64, 83, 92, 110, 119
17) Wellington- 475: 32, 51, 111, 131, 152
18) Douglas- 506: 70, 76, 91, 134, 139
19) Boca Raton- 522: 35, 77, 128, 137, 147
20) Coral Reef- 540: 63, 66, 105, 128, 141
21) Martin County- 547: 82, 89, 113, 133, 135
22) Park Vista- 565: 69, 97, 126, 132, 146
23) Cooper City- 666: 57, 139, 145, 161, 166
24) Braddock- 693: 114, 123, 141, 157, 162
Virtual Ranking, based on Region Results (No Adjustments):
1) 1 Winter Park High School Average: 18:51.45, Spread: 2:02
2) 2 Dr. Phillips High School Average: 19:54.97, Spread: 2:03
3) 3 Mandarin High School Average: 20:20.60, Spread: 2:15
4) 1 Sarasota High School Average: 20:26.95, Spread: 1:24
5) 4 Winter Springs High Schoo Average: 20:28.77, Spread: 2:09
6) 5 West Orange High School Average: 20:35.85, Spread: 1:45
7) 6 Paul J. Hagerty High Scho Average: 21:01.14, Spread: 3:46
8) 2 Newsome High School Average: 21:03.14, Spread: 1:36
9) 3 Wharton High School Average: 21:03.08, Spread: 1:20
10) 4 Sarasota Riverview Average: 21:09.73, Spread: 0:50
11) 5 H.B. Plant High School Average: 21:12.31, Spread: 1:18
12) 6 Steinbrenner High School Average: 21:21.39, Spread: 1:22
13) 1 Vero Beach High School Average: 21:22.46, Spread: 1:01
14) 1 Ferguson Senior High S Average: 21:33.01, Spread: 1:22
15) 3 Saint Thomas Aquinas High Average: 21:38.64, Spread: 3:13
16) 2 Martin County High School Average: 21:41.54, Spread: 1:20
17) 3 Wellington Community High Average: 21:42.16, Spread: 2:43
18) 2 Our Lady of Lourdes Acade Average: 21:44.26, Spread: 0:52
19) 4 Marjory Stoneman Douglas Average: 21:46.58, Spread: 2:08
20) 6 Park Vista Community High Average: 21:59.96, Spread: 2:26
21) 5 Boca Raton Community High Average: 22:02.98, Spread: 2:13
22) 4 Coral Reef Senior High Sc Average: 22:54.82, Spread: 2:08
23) 5 Cooper City High School Average: 23:16.04, Spread: 3:43
24) 6 G Holmes Braddock Senior Average: 23:21.17, Spread: 2:46
Virtual Ranking, based on Region Results (With Adjustments):
Time Adjustments- Region 1: +30s, Region 2: -10s, Region 3: +30s, Region 4: No Change. Adjustments made based on: Region 1 = 16s faster than FSU, Region 2 = 31s slower than FSU, Region 3 = 36s faster than Spanish River (76.5 meters short), Region 4 = 21s slower than FSU, and slightly slower than Spanish River.
1) 1 Winter Park High School Average: 19:21.45, Spread: 2:02
2) 1 Sarasota High School Average: 20:16.95, Spread: 1:24
3) 2 Dr. Phillips High School Average: 20:24.97, Spread: 2:03
4) 3 Mandarin High School Average: 20:50.60, Spread: 2:15
5) 2 Newsome High School Average: 20:53.14, Spread: 1:36
6) 3 Wharton High School Average: 20:53.08, Spread: 1:20
7) 4 Winter Springs High Schoo Average: 20:58.77, Spread: 2:09
8) 4 Sarasota Riverview Average: 20:59.73, Spread: 0:50
9) 5 H.B. Plant High School Average: 21:02.31, Spread: 1:18
10) 5 West Orange High School Average: 21:05.85, Spread: 1:45
11) 6 Steinbrenner High School Average: 21:11.39, Spread: 1:22
12) 6 Paul J. Hagerty High Scho Average: 21:31.14, Spread: 3:46
13) 1 Ferguson Senior High S Average: 21:33.01, Spread: 1:22
14) 3 Saint Thomas Aquinas High Average: 21:38.64, Spread: 3:13
15) 2 Our Lady of Lourdes Acade Average: 21:44.26, Spread: 0:52
16) 1 Vero Beach High School Average: 21:52.46, Spread: 1:01
17) 2 Martin County High School Average: 22:11.54, Spread: 1:20
18) 3 Wellington Community High Average: 22:12.16, Spread: 2:43
19) 4 Marjory Stoneman Douglas Average: 22:16.58, Spread: 2:08
20) 6 Park Vista Community High Average: 22:29.96, Spread: 2:26
21) 5 Boca Raton Community High Average: 22:32.98, Spread: 2:13
22) 4 Coral Reef Senior High Sc Average: 22:54.82, Spread: 2:08
23) 5 Cooper City High School Average: 23:16.04, Spread: 3:43
24) 6 G Holmes Braddock Senior Average: 23:21.17, Spread: 2:46
State Mock Meet, based on Region Results (With Adjustments):
Rank. (Prev.) School, Region- Mock Score = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, (6, 7); Team Avg., 1-5 Spr.
1. (1) Winter Park, 1- 33 = 1, 2, 7, 10, 13, (26, 34); Avg: 19:21.45, Spread: 2:02
2. (4) Sarasota, 2- 109 = 5, 8, 16, 36, 44, (64, 139); Avg: 20:16.95, Spread: 1:24
3. (2) Dr. Phillips, 1- 137 = 3, 12, 30, 31, 61, (75, 79); Avg: 20:24.97, Spread: 2:03
4. (9) Newsome, 2- 197 = 15, 22, 23, 59, 78, (92, 101); Avg: 20:53.14, Spread: 1:36
5. (3) Wharton, 2- 202 = 24, 29, 32, 37, 80, (131, 133); Avg: 20:53.08, Spread: 1:20
6. (6) Mandarin, 1- 206 = 6, 17, 43, 55, 85, (95, 99); Avg: 20:50.60, Spread: 2:15
7. (14) Sarasota Riv., 2- 218 = 25, 35, 40, 58, 60, (65, 162); Avg: 20:59.73, Spread: 0:50
8. (12) Winter Springs, 1- 220 = 14, 18, 42, 48, 98, (108, 135); Avg: 20:58.77, Spread: 2:09
9. (5) H.B. Plant, 2- 234 = 28, 33, 38, 54, 81, (121, 126); Avg: 21:02.31, Spread: 1:18
10. (NR) West Orange, 1- 251 = 11, 49, 51, 69, 71, (110, 112); Avg: 21:05.85, Spread: 1:45
11. (11) Steinbrenner, 2- 257 = 19, 21, 67, 74, 76, (109, 114); Avg: 21:11.39, Spread: 1:22
12. (15) Ferguson, 4- 326 = 41, 45, 47, 93, 100, (106, 113); Avg: 21:33.01, Spread: 1:22
13. (NR) Hagerty, 1- 348 = 4, 39, 77, 96, 132, (151, 153); Avg: 21:31.14, Spread: 3:46
14. (7) St. Thomas, 4- 364 = 9, 20, 83, 123, 129, (142, XX); Avg: 21:38.64, Spread: 3:13
15. (8) Lourdes, 4- 370 = 53, 68, 73, 87, 89, (94, 154); Avg: 21:44.26, Spread: 0:52
16. (17) Vero Beach, 3- 402 = 57, 66, 84, 91, 104, (116, 145); Avg: 21:52.46, Spread: 1:01
17. (18) Martin County, 3- 466 = 62, 72, 97, 117, 118, (127, 134); Avg: 22:11.54, Spread: 1:20
18. (19) Wellington, 3- 466 = 27, 88, 90, 124, 137, (163, 167); Avg: 22:12.16, Spread: 2:43
19. (21) Douglas, 3- 479 = 50, 56, 111, 122, 140, (141, 147); Avg: 22:16.58, Spread: 2:08
20. (22) Park Vista, 3- 522 = 52, 82, 103, 136, 149, (152, 155); Avg: 22:29.96, Spread: 2:26
21. (20) Boca Raton, 3- 534 = 46, 105, 115, 130, 138, (144, 146); Avg: 22:32.98, Spread: 2:13
22. (16) Coral Reef, 4- 607 = 63, 125, 128, 143, 148, (150, 159); Avg: 22:54.82, Spread: 2:08
23. (24) Cooper City, 4- 609 = 70, 102, 120, 156, 161, (165, 166); Avg: 23:16.04, Spread: 3:43
24. (23) Braddock, 4- 627 = 86, 107, 119, 157, 158, (160, 164); Avg: 23:21.17, Spread: 2:46
Overall Team State Rankings:
Rank. (Previous Rank) Team, Region- Comments
The Team to Beat:
1. (1) Winter Park, 1- Their dominance is as good as it was back in 2009, so these comments will be very similar to back then! This is the Wildcats meet to lose for the 2nd year in a row as they are the heavy favorite. Why they'd win: This is still the only team who has regularly shown they can put 5 runners in the top 15-20. How'd they lose: They all fall down a couple of times while another team decides to PR by over 30 seconds.
Shooting for the Podium:
2. (4) Sarasota, 2- After bouncing around the 2-3-4 spots all year and after dealing with a couple of apparent injuries, the Sailors are poised to make their first podium finish in Class 4A. However, if they don't put it together again, DP will gladly take the #2 spot from them. How they'd win: They have a great day and Winter Park has a horrible day.
3. (2) Dr. Phillips, 1- The Panthers have also been bouncing around the podium positions all year long, but didn't show the depth in the 5-6 position at Region that would put them on the podium. They need to have everyone on the same page if they want to make the podium. How they'd win: They have a really great day and Winter Park has a horrible day.
Shooting for Top 5:
4. (6) Mandarin, 1- Although off the radar for most of the season and although ranked 6th in the virtual, I truly feel like the Mustangs are going to bring it most when it matters most. They ran amazing in the FSU Pre-State Select race and if they can repeat that performance, top five will be a piece of cake.
5. (3) Wharton, 2- The third team on this list that has been bouncing around the top five all year long, on the right day, they have a shot at the podium. The Wildcats haven't been the most consistent, but on the right day, they can surprise many teams that are ranked ahead of them.
6. (9) Newsome, 2- If there is a sleeper team on this list, this is it. Although I have them ranked 6th because I am trying to compare an entire season's worth of performances, the truth is that their race at Region has them poised to crack the top five, but if they have the right day, they could even squeeze into the top three.
7. (5) HB Plant, 2- Although the virtual meet has these Panthers pegged for ninth place, I feel like they just had an off day at the Region meet. They should easily make the top ten and truly have a shot at the top five.
8. (14) Sarasota Riverview, 2- Between a great Region race, the best pack in the state, and solid coaching, the Rams get the performance of the week for last week and if they repeat that, they should easily be top 10.
Shooting for Top 10:
9. (8) Lourdes, 4- The trickiest team to rank is the Bobcats. Two years ago the virtual meet ranked them 8th for state, yet they finished 4th dropping 52 second per girl. Last year's virtual meet ranked them 12th, yet they finished 3rd, dropping 72 seconds per girl. This year's virtual ranks them 15th, with their team average being 70 seconds slower than what they ran at Pre-state. Considering they have a 17 year long top ten streak, I'm pegging them for the 9th position and estimating around a 45 second drop per girl. If their #1 on paper has a good day, she'll pull their tight pack through and they could easily finish even higher. Their pre-season rank had them listed as 4th, so don't be surprised if they even manage to jump into the top 5 again like last season.
10. (12) Winter Springs, 1- The last team slotted in the coveted top ten position, the virtual meet has them listed in a tight bunch of teams that could be anywhere from 5th through 11th. The Bears had a good Region meet, but with a weaker #5, they will have work to do if they want to stagger into the teams listed above.
11. (NR) West Orange, 1- The Warriors have a definite shot at top ten this Saturday, but they're hurting on the #2-3 positions compared to many of the schools listed just above them. They have a front runner which helps, but to make the top ten, they'll need a full effort performance from their top five.
12. (13) Steinbrenner, 2- The last team that looks like they have a legitimate shot at the top ten, these Warriors have a sizeable gap between their #2 and their 3-4-5 pack. If that back half of their team can work together as a unit, they have a possibility of finishing a few places higher than they are ranked.
Shooting for Top 15:
13. (7) St. Thomas, 4- Although not quite as tricky as Lourdes, the other big private school on this list is tricky to rank as well. Although they have two big front runners, and although they typically run their best when it matters the most, unfortunately a DNF by one girl at the Region meet and a couple of missing (injured?) girls from the back half of their varsity from earlier in the season makes me think they haven't shown us their best race yet. Although lower than I thought from the last couple of weeks, they should still easily make top 15.
14. (15) Ferguson, 4- Although they've shown that they've been the best South Florida school all year long, that's not what it takes to keep them in the top 10 as they've done the previous five seasons. Although this young group has had the ability to progress and move up a handful of positions, they've yet to do it all season and they're running out of time to show they're disciplined enough to contend with the best of the best.
15. (NR) Hagerty, 1- Making it out of the Region of Death in the tough sixth position is an accomplishment in itself. The Huskies are poised to be a top 15 team unless the back half of their varsity can make some big gains to be able to catch a couple of the squads above them. Although they have a great front runner, they're dealing with the largest spread in the state which will make it difficult for them to move up at State.
16. (17) Vero Beach, 3- Coming off the win the Region victory, the Fighting Indians will have a lot of work to do to catch the top fifteen. There really is, and has been, a distinct gap all season between the bottom three in Region 4 and all of Region 3. They hurt without a front runner, but they do have one of the best packs in the state. If they all peak at the right time, they might be able to work on closing the gap.
17. (19) Wellington, 3- Although tied in the virtual meet with Martin County and losing to them at Region, based on season bests I'm giving the nod to the Wolverines for their state ranking. They have a top front runner, but a large spread is their Achilles heel versus the teams coming after them.
18. (18) Martin County, 3- Definitely poised for a top 20 finish, the Tigers are a ways away from top 15. They had a good Region meet and have a shot at catching a couple of teams ahead of them, but having no front runners hurts them. Their advantage over the teams below them is they have a better overall spread.
Shooting for Top 20:
19. (16) Coral Reef, 4- The Barracudas have been a top 20 team all season long, with hopes of top 15, unfortunately losing their top girl to her second stress fracture has them falling a few places. Top 20 is still in sight, but the virtual meet has them pegged as low as 22nd. They need to have a good day at State.
20. (21) Douglas, 3- The Eagles are listed at the final team in the top 20, but will have fierce competition around them if they want to make the top 20. They hurt by having a far back 5-6-7 off their front pack.
21. (20) Boca Raton, 3- Based on season best performances, the Bobcats could easily place in the top 20, but it's going to be difficult with a large spread if the back half doesn't work together to pass other squads.
22. (22) Park Vista, 3- Although they're ranked 20th in the virtual meet, they're listed as 22nd based on season best performances for 2015. If the back half of varsity has a great day, they could easily move up a few spots.
23. (24) Cooper City, 4- They had a strong enough finish in region to get them to the state meet, but having four girls in the bottom 12 and a spread of 3:43 has the Cow[girls]boys battling to not get last place.
24. (23) Braddock, 4- The Bulldogs squeezed into the state meet and have very similar concerns like Cooper City; four girls in the bottom 11, and a large spread of 2:46 has them battling to also not get last place.
Individual State Rankings:
Commentary: Using the previously mentioned time / course adjustments (Region 1: +30s, Region 2: -10s, Region 3: +30s, Region 4: No Change), here's the top 55 girls (everyone 21:00 or sub) based on the Region results. Note: These aren't the specific time performances I am predicting, I think everyone could easily be 10-20 seconds faster depending on the weather, this is just based off of the Region performances.
Rank. Name Grade School Time, Scoring
1. Gibbons, Rafaella 10 Winter Park 17:57.15, 1
2. Urzua, Daniela 11 Lake Mary 18:14.31, --
3. Delay, Kayley 11 Fletcher 18:26.75, --
4. Hertenstein, Bailey 10 Riverview 18:33.15, --
5. Herndon, Hana 11 Winter Park 19:13.54, 2
6. Bartczak, Isabela 10 Dr. Phillips 19:24.29, 3
7. Worrell, Nicolette 11 Hagerty 19:25.25, 4
8. Rogers, Daesha 11 North Miami 19:26.68, --
9. English, Emily 11 George Jenkins 19:26.71, --
10. Jung, Victoria 12 George Jenkins 19:28.62, --
11. Lyons, Sage 11 Sarasota 19:38.34, 5
12. Grzeszczak, Anna 12 Mandarin 19:42.36, 6
13. White, Melanie 10 Winter Park 19:43.33, 7
14. Wright, Allison 12 Sarasota 19:45.30, 8
15. Cruz, Alexa 12 Saint Thomas 19:52.75, 9
16. Jenkins, Elizabeth 11 Winter Park 19:53.38, 10
17. Hannah, Megan 10 West Orange 19:53.70, 11
18. Sison, Janet Annika 12 Dr. Phillips 19:58.93, 12
19. Kuhn, Katherine 12 Winter Park 19:59.82, 13
20. Grace, Shannon 12 Lyman 20:00.85, --
21. Cobb, Elizabeth 12 Winter Springs 20:09.71, 14
22. Somrah, Maria 10 Newsome 20:12.74, 15
23. Barbaccia, Julian 11 Palm Harbor Uni. 20:13.49, --
24. Kilduff, Aubrey 11 Sarasota 20:14.44, 16
25. Cowart, Madison 11 Mandarin 20:16.22, 17
26. Rivera, Jenycha 12 Gateway 20:16.55, --
27. Hawkins, Jaina 11 Winter Springs 20:18.30, 18
28. Villatoro, Valeri 10 Saint Cloud 20:20.38, --
29. Santiesteban, Bro 10 Steinbrenner 20:24.01, 19
30. Kloepfer, Lily 12 Saint Thomas 20:25.53, 20
31. Straumann, Alex. 9 Steinbrenner 20:30.03, 21
32. Benner, Marcella 11 Newsome 20:30.37, 22
33. Somrah, Juliana 9 Newsome 20:30.95, 23
34. Deschenes, Alisha 10 Wharton 20:32.53, 24
35. Kracht, Emily 11 Sarasota Riverview 20:33.11, 25
36. Nix, Emily 12 Winter Park 20:33.62, 26
37. Lopez, Caitlin 9 Wellington 20:34.90, 27
38. Jones, Laura 11 H.B. Plant 20:35.83, 28
39. Rivers, Bryanna 11 Wharton 20:36.23, 29
40. Walker, Alison 10 Dr. Phillips 20:36.39, 30
41. Waddell, Hannah 10 Dr. Phillips 20:37.43, 31
42. Lettiero, Rachel 10 Wharton 20:38.23, 32
43. Stratton, Nadia 11 H.B. Plant 20:39.63, 33
44. Coddington, Jenn. 9 Winter Park 20:40.97, 34
45. Natherson, Robyn 12 Sarasota Riverview 20:42.89, 35
46. Brown, Mackenzie 11 Sarasota 20:44.06, 36
47. Samhouri, Rania 11 Wharton 20:46.10, 37
48. Crowder, Abigail 12 H.B. Plant H 20:46.95, 38
49. Murillo, Elly 10 Palm Beach Gardens 20:54.40, --
50. Tucker, Lauren 10 Hagerty 20:55.13, 39
51. Sabin, Payton 12 Sarasota Riverview 20:55.43, 40
52. Alfaro, Kaylee 11 Ferguson 20:58.46, 41
53. Butterfield, Brooke 12 Winter Springs 20:59.70, 42
54. Slack, Meaghan 11 Mandarin 21:00.37, 43
55. McConnell, Nicole 10 Monarch 21:00.40, --
1A Boys Rankings
By: Mark Caulfield, Circle Christian School, markscaul@aol.com
Team Rankings:
Commentary: With two State runner-up finishes over the past 3 years, Maclay School looks to move up one spot and secure a 6th State title for their records list. With a strong front running interchangeable pack of 4, the Mauraders look tough to beat at this time. Should they stumble, a host of three schools look to give them a run with Father Lopez, Bishop Snyder, and Shorecrest Prep likely to give them ready. Both Father Lopez and Shorecrest boast Senior dominate teams looking for one last chance at the podium. Westminster Academy looks to be coming on strong at the end of the season with an impressive win in Region 4 and could contend as well with their tight pack. Following the Top 5, it looks like a great battle of at least 10 teams tight enough to contend for a Top 10 Finish. Good luck to all the teams and congrats on an outstanding season!
Rank. (Previous Rank) Team, Region = Comments
1. (2), Maclay School, 1 = Region 1 Champion with 17:24 team average on the fast Alligator Park course. Season Best 17:06 at the Panhandle Championships. Strong Top 4 capable of scoring low while #5 holds the key to how close the score will be.
2. (2), Father Lopez, 3 = Region 3 Champions with a 17:41 (SB) team average on the ultra-fast HTA course. Strongest season in school history has Senior led team looking to go out with their best. Key to success will need to come from a strong showing from their Top 3.
3. (3), Bishop Snyder, 1 = Region 1 Runner-up with 17:38 (SB) team average. Team has been in the shadows of the top 2 all season but is capable of getting to the podium with a strong team performance.
4. (4), Shorecrest Prep, 2 = Region 2 Champions with 18:31 team average on moderate Holloway Park course. With 6 Seniors that have been together through impressive 3rd and 4th place State finishes in 2013 and 2014, this team is looking get to the podium.
5. (6), Westminster Academy, 4 = Region 4 Champion with 18:34 (SB) team average. WA consistently finishes strong at the State Meet and this team looks to continue that tradition. #5 finish might hold the key to a Top 5 team score.
6. (5), Trinity Christian Academy (Jacksonville), 1 = 3rd Place in Region 1 with 17:55 (SB) team average. A balanced team much like Bishop Snyder capable of a Top 5 finish.
7. (8), Seffner Christian Academy, 2 = 4th place in Region 2 with 19:04 team average without #1 runner and only 5 runners. If Noah Perkins can go on Saturday, team looks to be a likely Top 10 finisher.
8. (11), Providence School, 1 = 4th Place in Region 1 with 18:26 (SB) team average. If this tight pack running team can each move up a few spots, so will the team.
9. (9), The Pine School, 3 = Region 3 Runner-up with a 17:57 (SB) team average. A team that has come on strong through the State Series that has two runners capable of being in the Top 15.
10. (12), Indian Rocks, 2 = Region 2 Runner-up with an 18:41 (SB) team average. A strong run in at Regionals boosts this team to a potential Top 10 State finish.
11. (13), Oak Hall School, 2 = 3rd Place in Region 2 with 18:57 (SB) team average.
12. (19), Marathon MS/HS, 4 = Region 4 Runner-up with 19:07 (SB) team average.
13. (17), Windermere Prep, 3 = 3rd Place in Region 3 with 18:20 (SB) team average.
14. (NR), The First Academy, 3 = 4th Place in Region 3 with 18:21 team average.
15. (NR), Lakeland Christian, 3 = 5th Place in Region 3 with 18:25 team average.
16. (14), The Geneva School, 3 = 6th Place in Region 3 with 18:32 (SB) team average.
17. (7), Miami Country Day, Region 4 = 5th Place in Region 4 with 19:32 team average. Team should be better than their Region finish.
18. (10), Pensacola Christian, 1 = 5th Place in Region 1 with 18:44 (SB) team average.
19. (15), Cottondale HS, 1 = 6th Place in Region 1 with 18:49 team average. Season Best 18:31 at Panhandle Championships.
20. (16) St. Stephens Episcopal, 2 = 5th Place in Region 1 with 19:10 (SB) team average.
21. (NR), Palmer Trinity School, 4 = 3rd Place in Region 4 with 19:27 team average.
22. (NR), First Baptist Academy, 2 = 6th Place in Region 2 with 19:18 team average.
23. (NR), The King's Academy, 5 = 4th Place in Region 4 with 19:32 team average.
24. (18) Highlands Christian, 4 = 6th Place in Region 4 with 19:32 team average.
Individual Rankings:
Commentary: One of the big stories going into the Boys State Championships is whether Noah Perkins, the Senior from Seffner Christian is going to be able to compete. A late season stress-reaction (a precursor to a stress fracture) to this foot kept him out of the Region 2 Championships. Most likely, a race time decision awaits. If he is able to give it a go, he remains the favorite, in part because of the drive and confidence he has displayed while battling the State's best this season and partly because he is 40 seconds faster than the closest competitor with his 15:20 personal Best. If Perkins can't go or struggles, a chase group of 5 look strong to battle for the top 3. Chase Hyland of The Pine School looked strong at Region 3 and will battle Seniors Luke Peterson of Shorecrest , Tucker Hindle of Boca Raton Christian, and Guilherme Pereira of Divine Savior, and Sophomore Ryan Szklany of Highlands Christian for the coveted spots. After the top 6 their remains a tight battle for the remaining medals with Jackson Neri of Bishop Snyder leading the way following a strong win at Region 1. Congrats to all the Class 1A State qualifiers and best of luck in the finale. Finish Strong!
Rank. (Previous Rank) Name, Grade, Team = Comments
1. (1), Noah Perkins, 12th; Seffner Christian = Did not Region 2. The talented Senior has 5 sub 16:00 efforts this season highlighted by a 4th place 15:25 effort at FSU and a 15:20 (PR) win at FLrunners.
2. (2), Luke Peterson, 12th, Shorecrest Prep = Region 2 Champion in 16:48 on the moderate Holloway Park course. Has a Season Best of 16:02 at FSU.
3. (3), Tucker Hindle, 12th, Boca Raton Christian = Region 4 Champion in 16:40 on the slow Westminster course. Has a Season Best of 16:26 with his District 13 win at Quiet Waters. Coming on strong through the State Series.
4. (5) Chase Hyland, 11th, Pine School = Region 3 Champion with a 30 second win in 15:56 on the fast HTA course. Has run 16:26 at FSU and 16:25 at UF. One to watch.
5. (6), Guilherme Pereira, 12th, Divine Savior = Region 4 Runner-up in 16:49. Has run 16:30 at Larry and Penney at the Jr. Orange Bowl.
6. (4), Ryan Szklany, 10th, Highlands Christian = 3rd Place in Region 4 in 17:41. Has a Season Best of 16:18 at FSU and a close 16:32 finish to Hindle in District 13.
7. (14), Jackson Neri, 12th, Bishop Snyder = Region 1 Champion in 16:34 (PR) on the fast Alligator Park course.
8. (10), Josh Skielnik, 10th, Jupiter Christian = Region 3 Runner-up in 16:28 on the Holy Trinity course.
9. (9), Gabriel Curtis, 9th, Mount Dora Christian = 3rd Place in 16:36 at Region 3. Has a Season Best of 16:33 at FSU.
10. (16) Ryan Scott, 11th, Trinity Christian Academy = Region 1 Runner-up in a Personal Best 16:46 on the fast Alligator Park course. Running strong in the State Series.
11. (18), Clayburn Milford, 9th, Maclay School = 3rd Place in 16:47 (PR) at Region 3.
12. (11), James McClure, 10th, Maclay School = 4th Place in 16:56 at Region 3. Has Season Bests of 16:43 at Panhandle Championships and 16:59 at FSU.
13. (13), George Gwynn, Maclay School = 5th Place in 17:03 at Region 3. Has Season Best of 16:47 at FSU.
14. (8), Drew De Armas, 11th, First Academy = 4th Place in 16:58 at Region 3. Has a Season Best of 16:28 at West Orange.
15. (21), Cooper Labrant, 10th, Indian Rocks Christian = Strong Runner-up finish at Region 2 in 17:02 on the moderate Holloway Park course has the talented Sophomore ready.
16 (7), Hunter McCann, 12th, Admiral Farragut = 3rd Place in 17:14 at Region 3. Has Season Best of 16:48 at the St. Petersburg Championships.
17. (19), Jack Pironti, 10th, Carrollwood Day = 4th Place in 17:19 at Region 3. Has a Season Best of 17:02 at the Indian Rocks Invite.
18. (12), Jake Mazziotta, 11th, Maclay School = 9th Place in 17:19 at Region 1. Has Season Bests of 16:55 at FSU and 16:43 at the Panhandle Championships.
19. (NR), Gatlin Nennstiel, 11th, Aucilla Christian = 6th Place in 17:06 at Region 1.
20. (NR), Gabriel Moran-deleon, 12th, Trinity Christian = 7th Place in 17:06 at Region 1.
21. (NR), Christopher Textor, 10th, The Pine School = 5th Place in 17:14 at Region 3.
22. (24) Matthew Roof, 12th, Father Lopez = 6th Place in 17:18 at Region 3. Has a Season Best of 17:14 at Bale-n-Trail.
23. (15), Nick Theriault, 12th, Father Lopez = 11th Place in 17:29 at Region 3. Has a Season Best of 17:01 at FSU.
24. (25), Blake Burchett, 12th, Seacrest Day School = 5th Place in 17:37 at Region 2. Has a Season Best of 17:19 at FLrunners.
25. (22), Garry Barnes, 11th, Cottondale HS = 8th Place in 17:15 at Region 1. Has a Season Best of 17:10 at the Panhandle Championships.
Athletes to Watch for:
Justin Nunamaker, 11th, Northside Christian; Kyle Lantz, 12th, Sarasota Christian; Timothy (Hunter) Stewart, 11th, Pensacola Christian; Kaio Valle, 8th, Windermere Prep; Patrick Sastre, 11th, Westminster Academy.
2A Boys Rankings
By: Bryan Garcia, H.B. Plant High School, bcgfalcons@yahoo.com
Team Rankings:
Commentary: With the Regional Championships over, we advance to the State Meet! Trinity Prep reigned supreme at Region 2 and is in the driver's seat to win a State Championship this Saturday morning. They are the most balanced team, and sweeping the region did not hurt their chances. The main question is who else will finish on the podium? I think it will come down to a four team race between Bolles, Bishop Kenny, Labelle, and Pine Crest (2014 Runner-up). Bolles edged a good Bishop Kenny team to take the Region 1 title. Labelle pummeled Region 3 running away with the team title. Pine Crest poured it on in Region 4 to win convincingly. It will be a dog fight for that final piece of hardware. And you can never count out something crazy from Immokalee and Satellite teams, both of whom finished runner-up's in Region 3 and Region 4. Region 4 proved to be the toughest region with Calvary Christian, Titusville, and Ransom Everglades taking places 3rd, 4th, and 5th and rounding out the top 10. Episcopal School of Jacksonville and Lely took 3rd in Region 1 and Region 3 to be on the edge of that top 10. Lake Highland Prep, West Florida Tech, Wakulla and Hernando all have a shot to climb into the top 15 with good races. The race for the top 20 looks like it will come down to Eastside, South Walton, Bishop Moore, Monsignor Pace, and Lemon bay. The final three spots in the State Championship appear to be coming down to teams that will return everyone next year from their top 7! Frostproof, Mount Dora, and the McKeel Academy are all building programs off young talent. This Saturday should be very exciting as it all ends this weekend where a champion will be crowned!
Rank. (Previous Rank) Team, Region = Comments
2015 PROJECTED TEAM STATE CHAMPION:
1. (1), Trinity Prep, Region 2 Champions = Trinity Prep perfect scored Region 2 going 1-6, rolling to a third consecutive Regional Championship. They had a 20 second 1-5 split and a 16:30 team average. If they win Saturday, it will be their third State Championship in a row. That does not seem like a reach as they have proven to be an elite team and they best in 2A.
IN THE HUNT FOR THE PODIUM:
2. (2), Bolles, Region 1 Champions = Bolles snuck by a good Bishop Kenny team 30-35 and ran to a Regional Championship this past week with a 16:42 team average. It was their first Regional Championship since 1999 in an impressive win in which they established themselves as the biggest threat to Trinity Prep. This Bolles team is in a good spot to finish on the podium, which would be their first time since 1989.
3. (7), Bishop Kenny, Region 1 Runner-up = Only 5 points back of Region 1 Champion Bolles, Bishop Kenny finished 2nd in Region 1 with a 16:51 team average. BK was last on the podium placing 2nd in 2013, with 2012 and 2011 ended with them being state champions. They were 5th in 2014, but are in a position to make it 4 out of 5 years with top 2 finishes.
4. (4), Labelle, Region 3 Champions = Labelle made it back to back Region 3 Championships on Saturday winning in convincing fashion with 5 in the top 10 and a 16:48 team average. Labelle makes this their fourth straight appearance at the State Championship, with their best finish being 4th last season. They are in a similar spot this year, but could, with a good race, find themselves on the podium.
5. (5), Pine Crest, Region 4 Champions = Pine Crest pulled off an impressive win in Region 4 landing them into the top 5. Crest looked strong and their front pack of guys keeps them in the mix for a podium spot. Last season, they had their best finish at the State Championship with a runner-up finish. They will be making their fourth straight appearance, and will hope to make history again with their second straight top 2 finish.
IN THE HUNT FOR A TOP 5 FINISH:
6. (10), Immokalee, Region 3 Runner-up = Immokalee packed 5 into the top 20 in Region 3 to making a late season push into a position to finish in the top 5. They had a 17:18 team average. Immokalee placed 7th last season at the State Championship, their fifth straight top 10 finish. 2015 won't be any different and they will look to add their third top 5 finish in the past 4 seasons.
7. (3), Satellite, Region 4 Runner-up = Satellite was 2nd to Pine Crest with a 17:16 team average last week. It's Satellite's first State Championship appearance since 2008 when they finished 15th. They have had 2 top 10 finishes in school history coming in 1999 and 2002, finishing 9th both times. They will be in position to make school history on Saturday as they are on course for their best finish ever.
IN THE HUNT FOR A TOP 10 FINISH:
8. (8), Calvary Christian, Region 4 3rd Place = Calvary Christian finished just 14 points behind a very good Satellite team this past week to finish 3rd with a team average of 17:33. Calvary finished 8th at the State Championship last year, their best finish to date. They are in a similar spot this year, but could be looking at a school record consecutive top 10 finish.
9. (6), Titusville, Region 4 4th Place = With a 4th place finish, Titusville qualified for State Meet with a 17:43 team average, where they were ironically just 14 points behind Calvary Christian. Titusville made it back to the State Championship after a 7th place finish in 2013. If they can finish in the top 10 Saturday morning, it will be only the third time since 1986.
10. (14), Ransom Everglades, Region 5 5th Place = Ransom showed up huge last week with a 5th place finish and a 17:47 team average to make it back to the State Championship. They put their 2-5 11 seconds apart and looked like a top 10 team. They will look for their second straight top 10 finish as it was their thirty first straight State Championship they have qualified for; they finished 30 of those 31 times in the top 10.
11. (9), Episcopal School of Jacksonville, Region 1 3rd Place = Episcopal finished with a 17:43 team average and 5 guys in the top 40 at the Region 1 Championship to finish behind Labelle and Immokalee. Advancing to their first State Championship since 2012, Episcopal will be looking for their best finish this decade.
12. (16), Lely, Region 3 3rd Place = This was a breakthrough season for Lely, who finished 3rd overall in their Region with a 17:42 team average. Lely made this their first State Championship appearance since 2006, where they finished 22nd. This year looks like it could be even more special than it already is as they eye a top 10 finish, their first since 2000.
IN THE HUNT FOR A TOP 15 FINISH:
13. (17), Lake Highland Prep, Region 2 Runner-up = Lake Highland Prep ran to its fifth straight State Championship appearance finishing behind powerhouse Trinity Prep with a 17:38 team average, placing spots 3-5 8 seconds apart. This was LHP's fifth straight runner-up at Region 2 as well, and will look to make finish in the top 15 as they were top 20 from 2011-2013 and 12th last season.
14. (11), West Florida Tech, Region 1 4th Place = Finishing 8 points back of Episcopal, West Florida tech had a 17:47 team average last weekend, placing 3 guys from spots 30-39. This makes seven straight years that Tech has made it to the State Championship. They finished 16th last year and will be searching for their first top 15 finish since 2012.
15. (23), Wakulla, Region 1 5th Place = Wakulla made it 3 straight State Championship appearances finishing 11 points back of West Florida Tech with a 17:53 team average placing all 5 guys between spots 20 and 34. Wakulla has placed 22nd and 23rd the past two years at the State Meet, but this year could be one of the best in school history as they contend for a top 15 finish.
16. (20), Hernando, Region 2 3rd Place = With a 3rd place finish and a 17:55 team average, Hernando advances to the State Championship in 2015. This team has come on strong as they head into Saturday. Hernando has not qualified for the State Meet since 2008 when they finished 15th and they could be looking at a similar result this weekend.
IN THE HUNT FOR A TOP 20 FINISH:
17. (25), Eastside, Region 2 4th Place = Picking up their second consecutive State Championship appearance and, Eastside placed 4th with an 18:05 team average. They were able to put their top 3 within 15 seconds of one another and all 5 guys in the top 51. They were 21st at the State Meet last year and will be looking for a top 20 finish this Saturday.
18. (15), South Walton, Region 1 6th Place = With a big surge in Region 1, South Walton picked up the last place to advance to State Championships. They had an 18:01 team average placing their 3-5 9 seconds apart. It makes They qualified for their first State Meet since 2006 when they placed 10th. They are in position for a top 20 finish on Saturday.
19. (NR), Bishop Moore, Region 2 5th Place = Bishop Moore emerged from Region 2 with a 5th place finish and an 18:18 team average. They pushed themselves into the State Championship for the fourth time since 2010 after missing it last season. They have placed in the top 20 twice in the last 5 years and will be in position to do the same thing Saturday morning.
20. (NR), Miami Monsignor Pace, Region 4 6th Place = Grabbing the last spot in Region 4, Monsignor Pace had an 18:11 team average on the way to the State Championship. They were able to make it behind a youth movement with 2-5 all returning next year. They last qualified for the State Meet in 2012 and with their young athletes, could be propelled to a top 20 finish.
21. (19), Lemon Bay, Region 3 4th Place = Lemon Bay qualified for the State Championship placing 4th with an 18:16 team average. They put 5 guys into the top 60 in Region 3 to make it to 3 State Meet's in a row that they have qualified for including a 23rd place finish last year. Lemon Bay is looking at an improvement there as they on in contention for a top 20 finish.
THE FINAL 3 TEAMS:
22. (21), Frostproof, Region 3 5th Place = Coming in behind Lemon Bay, Frostproof took 5th with an 18:29 team average. Frostproof was able to prevail behind some strong running up front and all 5 guys in the top 80. They were last at the State Meet in 2011, and on a team that brings all 7 runners back next year, they are going to be looking to build on the momentum from this Saturday as they plan on making a trip to Tallahassee a habit.
23. (24), Mount Dora, Region 2 6th Place = Mount Dora took the final spot in Region 2 advancing to the State Championship with an 18:20 team average. This is a bit of history for Mount Dora as it appears it is their first time making it to the State Meet in school history! They are hoping to leave their mark and get a boost for the future of the program as they also return all 7 runners next season.
24. (22), McKeel Academy, Region 3 6th Place = McKeel snagged the final spot out of Region 3 with an 18:38 team average. They were able to put all 5 guys into the top 65 putting 3-5 11 places apart. McKeel has now made it to four consecutive State Championships including a 3rd place finish last season, the best in school history. They have built a winning tradition that will continue long past Saturday as they too return all 7 runners next season.
Individual Rankings:
Commentary: The Regional Championships produced the best picture we have had of our individual finishers. Chas Cook has taken the top spot in the state following a statement victory at Region 2. He is my prediction to win the State Championship this Saturday morning. Charles Hicks, Gabriel Correa, Caleb Pottorff, Danny Ferro, and Chase Rivera all moved up into state medalist positions. Nathan Jubran, Kayamo Galloway, Joshua Clethen, and Jesse Millson round out the individuals that I believe will medal. When Saturday morning rolls around and they toe the line, who knows what will really happen but I expect a great race across the board with a State Title on the line in Tallahassee.
Rank. (Previous Rank) Name, Grade -- Team = Time / Comments
2015 PREDICTED INDIVIDUAL STATE CHAMPION
1. (2), Chas Cook, 12th -- Trinity Prep = Cook takes the top spot going into Saturday's State Championship meet with a Region 2 individual championship in a time of 16:18. He has never medaled in cross country, although he has medaled twice in the 3200 in track. Cook has been a big part of Trinity Prep's State Championship teams and will hope to contribute with a 1 point finish this weekend.
IN THE HUNT FOR A TOP 2 FINISH:
2. (4), Charles Hicks, 9th -- Bolles = The freshmen stud took a close victory (2 tenths of a second) over fellow freshmen and teammate Chase Rivera en route to a Region 1 individual title with a time of 16:12. He is ready for his moment to establish himself as one of the best runners in the state this Saturday as he has his eyes set on his first state medal.
3. (7), Gabriel Correa, 12th -- Ransom Everglades = Correa comes in with a Region 4 championship in a time of 16:20 slipping by Caleb Pottorff. Correa finished in 3rd last season at the State Championship and will be looking for his third state medal in cross country (his seventh including track) and could be looking at his best finish yet if he can finish in the top 2.
4. (10), Caleb Pottorff, 11th -- Lincoln Park = The runner-up in Region 4, Pottorff finished just .02 behind Correa, 16:20.60 to 16:20.62! Pottorff has one state medal from cross country from 2013 and has two more from track in the 3200. It was a crazy close race as indicated and Pottorff will be competing for a top 2 finish.
IN THE HUNT FOR A TOP 5 FINISH:
5. (11), Danny Ferro, 10th -- Calvary Christian = Ferro was seconds behind Correa and Pottorff with a time of 16:23 to finish 3rd in Region 4. Ferro's best finish at the State Meet came last season when he was 14th and he will be looking for his first state medal this Saturday.
6. (16), Chase Rivera, 9th -- Bolles = The freshmen duo at Bolles took the Region 1 championship down to the wire as Rivera finished just behind teammate Hicks with a 16:12. In just his first season of running, Rivera finds himself one good race away from having two freshmen finish in the top 5 as he will be in top contention for a state medal this weekend.
7. (3), Nathan Jubran, 10th -- Bishop Kenny = Jubran finished 3rd in Region 1 this past week in a time of 16:27. It is also Jubran's first season of running cross country and he should be taking home a state medal and potentially a top 5 finish.
PREDICTED FINAL 3 STATE MEDALISTS:
8. (17), Kayamo Galloway, 8th -- Trinity Prep = Finishing as the runner-up just behind teammate Chas Cook, Galloway had a time of 16:19. As an 8th grader, Galloway has established himself as an elite runner stepping onto the stage and is looking at his first state medal among many to come.
9. (9), Joshua Clethen, 12th -- Monsignor Pace = Clethen followed up a strong district performance with a 4th place showing at Region 4 in a time of 16:25. He is also in first season of running and the senior has to make the most of it as it is his first and last chance to snag a state medal.
10. (8), Jesse Millson, 12th -- Trinity Prep = Millson placed 3rd last weekend in the Region 2 championship in a time of 16:38. He has one state medal from cross country last season when he finished 7th and was the runner-up in the 3200 in the spring as he looks like he will try to grab the last state medal at his last State Meet.
IN THE HUNT FOR A STATE MEDAL:
11. (13), Trent Mandato, 11th -- Trinity Prep = Mandato was among a wave of Trinity Prep runners finishing 4th in Region 2 with a time of 16:38. He was 4th last cross country season at the State Meet and has another state medal placing 3rd in the 3200 in the spring. He will have to fend off good competition to get back into the top 10 this weekend.
12. (21), Enrique Jiminez, 12th -- Labelle = In his first season of cross country, the senior took the Region 3 championship in a time of 16:27. Jiminez is gunning for his first state medal and will need to bring it this weekend if he wants to finish in the top 10.
13. (24), Ryan Welch, 12th -- Pine Crest = Welch took 5th place in a stacked Region 4 with a time of 16:25. He has never medaled in cross country, but took 8th in the 3200 at the State Championship in the spring. He is someone to keep an eye on as he looks to get into the top 10.
14. (6), Mason Jones, 11th -- Titusville = Jones finished in 6th place this past week in Region 4 in a time of 16:28. Jones has been known to come up big. He was 12th in the region his freshmen year, but took 10th at the State Meet; he followed that up finishing 4th in the region last year before finishing 6th at the State Meet. He also has another state medal from the 3200 in the spring and will be looking for his third straight state medal.
IN THE HUNT FOR A TOP 15 FINISH:
15. (5), Egan Kattenberg, 10th -- Satellite = Kattenberg placed 7th at the Region 4 Championship last week in a time of 16:29. The sophomore has finished 15th and 16th the past two seasons at the State Meet and will be aiming for another top 15 finish.
16. (12), Michael Kennedy, 11th -- Pine Crest = Finished in 8th place in Region 4 in a time of 16:31. Kennedy was 9th last cross country season picking up his first state medal and finished 5th in the 3200 in the spring to grab another, so you can never count him out as the junior will be in a battle for a top 15 spot in 2015.
17. (15), Trevor Kattenberg, 10th -- Satellite = Kattenberg took 9th in Region 4 in a time of 16:41. He picked up his first state medal his 8th grade season in 1A with a 5th place finish and was 5th last season as well as a freshmen. He also has two state medals from the 3200 in track. Watch for this young man as he could pop one out this Saturday.
IN THE HUNT FOR A TOP 20 FINISH:
18. (18), Antonio Gomez, 10th -- Frostproof = Gomez was 2nd at Region 3 in a time of 16:35 just edging out. Berkeley's Leo Ochoa. He was 13th last season at the State Meet and will be looking for another top 20 finish this Saturday.
19. (NR), Leo Ochoa, 11th -- Berkeley Prep = Ochoa finished just behind Gomez in a time of 16:35 to finish 3rd in Region 3. The junior has had some injury troubles in 2015, however he is clearly healthy now. He finished 16th last season at the State Meet and will be in contention for another top 20 finish.
20. (NR), Omar Figueroa, 12th -- Labelle = Finished 4th in Region 3 in a time of 16:40. Figueroa is one of those guys who has consistently come on strong late in the season including an 18th place finish at the State Championship last season after finishing 4th in Region 3 as well. He has another top 20 shot this Saturday.
IN THE HUNT FOR A TOP 25 FINISH:
21. (20), Beau Butler, 12th -- Bishop Kenny = Butler was 4th at Region 1 in a time of 16:43. He was 53rd last season at the State Meet, progressing throughout his time at Bishop Kenny. He will be hoping to finish off his high school cross country career with a top 25 finish.
22. (19), Mason Gerry, 12th -- Bishop Kenny = Behind teammate Butler at Region 1, Gerry finished 5th in a time of 16:46. He was 29th last season at the State Meet and is looking to hold down a top 25 finish.
23. (NR), Yoan Prado, 11th -- Labelle = Another first year runner, Prado placed 5th in the Region 3 Championship in a time of 16:44. Prado will look to finish off his first cross country season with a top 25 finish this Saturday.
24. (23), Patrick Salas, 11th -- Trinity Prep = Salas placed 6th at Region 2 in a time of 16:39. He was 43rd at the State Meet last season and is in a position to finish in the top 25 this weekend.
25. (NR), William Shine, 11th -- Archbishop McCarthy = The junior finished 10th at the Region 4 Championship last week in a time of 16:50. Shine was 56th last season at the 3A State Championship and ran 16:01 last season at Footlocker. He has a shot to finish in the top 25 this Saturday.
3A Boys Rankings
By: Eric Pino, Christopher Columbus HS, epino@columbushs.com
Team Rankings:
Commentary: I see Belen as a notable favorite followed by Creekside & Chiles with realistic chances to knock them off. Leon, Ocala, and G'ville could end up victorious if everything went right for them but have a much more realistic opportunity to snatch a podium spot. BT & FM a definite top 10s but are limited on their upside to get on the podium. All these teams seem to be coming together as planned (easier said than done). Look for Leon to show me up again…
Being completely wrong so often is humbling. Hours of research and still being so far off-base regularly is a compliment to these kids & the time they dedicate and their ability to push limits as well as a well thought out coaching program. It's embarrassing yet encouraging and makes me proud (even though I couldn't put a face to more than 5 of these kids/coaches).
Rank. (Previous Rank) Team, Region = Comments
1. (1) Belen Jesuit, 4 = Belen was in the #1 spot from start to finish. They lost only once to a 3A team this year. With their entire roster back on the course, I think it would take a substantial collapse for them to falter. Zayas was their 7 @Regions, perhaps breaks into the top 5 to solidify another title for the program. They should have the fastest 4 & 5 in the race, which is where they typically blow their opponents out. They were 20s slower on avg this year as compared to last year at the same location. A slower classification than a stacked 2014.
2. (3) Creekside, 1 = They ran without Deal at PreStates and came in 12th, 6s avg slower than Belen & Chiles. Deal has improved every race this season most recently being their 3 at 16:40. The handedly won their region by nearly doubling up Chiles and doing so to BT. 3 in the top 10 (Chiles also did that) their and 5 in the top 20. Fastest 4 & 5 at regions gives them the 2nd spot.
3. (2) Chiles HS, 1 = Defeated Belen on the state course a month ago by 8 points. Belen was running without Zayas but if he remains their 7th and Chiles runs perfectly, then Chiles could repeat. @Regional their #4 ran 57s slower than their #3 at FSU he ran 30 secs slower. This is crucial to their success on Saturday.
4. (4) Leon HS, 1 = I have them in the #4 spot but as I said last time 'they keep moving up and making me look foolish" (15th at preseason rankings). [Broken record] Best 1-2 punch with 2 in the top 10 gives them hope. #3 just ran 5 secs faster on the ARP than at pre-states and has seemed to be fluttering around 17:10 for a month now. They seem to have the slowest 4 & 5 out of the top 10 teams. With all that said, they keep proving that rankings are educated guesses and that I'm not so educated.
5. (7) Ocala Vangaurd, 2 = What a pack. 27s split at region. Joey Fitz. Coming in as their 3rd and continuing to improve gives them an outside chance at the win and contention for the podium. Their score would be doubled if missing 1:5. They lost to Gainesville @regionals but like some other teams, I think the nature of the state meet benefits them b/c of the tight pack, and strong 4 & 5 where you can get an athlete and a half every second.
6. (8) Gainesville, 2 = They were victorious at regional by 3 points. Their 1-2 contend with Leon's for fastest 1-2 in the division (state?). Brolin's appearance (injury?/new?) this post season really bumps them up the list unexpectedly. Their #5 PRing (82secs improvement on the same course from a month & a half ago) last week bodes well for another drop on Saturday.
7. (5) Bartram Trail, 1 = Creekside beat them at every man 1-7 at regional. Having their 4-5 right at 17 is impressive but their 2-3 just 15 secs ahead of them at regional will hold them back a little. They've showed the ability to do much better, which is what it'll take to get on the podium.
8. (6) Fort Myers HS, 3 =Ran away with their region. They were 2 points off of BT at PreState. They lost to them at 2,3, & 4 and this is where they can see it slip if they haven't made up ground. The gap between 1s is only 8 seconds and at a state meet that only a 3-4 spots and the middle of the pack is where you see 1.5 people per second at times.
Teams contending for 9-12
9. (12) Merritt Island, 4 = 1 point victory over Viera @ regionals after I thought that the power of their #1 wouldn't manifest itself. Their 5 has closed an amazing gap on Viera's so this puts them ahead of them, especially for a race that "runs" like a state meet.
10. (10) Niceville, 1 = 24 sec spread like they've done all season. Their #1 comes in at 17 flat and this is in the thick of the pack at a state meet.
11. (11) Viera, 4 = Lost to Merritt Island 2 weeks in a row. Once by double digits and the more recent by 1 pt. But as mentioned before, the gap b/w 1s will grow and the gap b/w 5s seems to be shrinking.
12. (9) New Smyrna Beach, 2 =Holding strong with a sub 17 avg at regional within 30 of Ocala Van. 3 guys under 17 should have them in the top 10.
Remaining team:
I'd be wildly guessing on the remaining teams. The remaining teams are typically fighting to make a name for their programs and start a trend/culture shift. This is also a great position to surprise the heck out of people by putting together a few massive PRs, which is more realistic because of the placement of most of the athletes on the roster.
Individual Rankings:
Commentary: Region 1 allows for clear comparisons with 7 of the top 16 coming from there. Their use of ARP allows for historical comparison. The remaining athletes being thinly spread out between the 3 other regions begs for a lot of guessing which leads to a lot of wrong guesses. Besides Cross, each pocket of 5 runners can shuffle easily. Some of those individuals I mentioned early on this year seem to be making moves. 10/15 athletes listed come from 4 teams--Chiles, Leon, Belen, Creekside. I feel that athletes sometimes are limited in their progress in a race because of that unexplainable trend to stay in order for your team (just an observation). If I forgot someone, I apologize. This is the hardest part for me.
Rank. (Previous Rank) Name, Grade -- Team = Time / Comments
1. (1) Steven Cross, 12-- Merritt Island HS = Winner winner. Fastest in the State. 1 loss all year.
2. (2) Matthew Clark, 11 -- Creekside HS = 2nd @Regionals. He was also the 2nd 3A athlete across the line at PreState. Made huge strides since coming in 34th at last years state meet and being the 11th fastest returner.
3. (9) Marshal Dillon, 12 -- Charlotte HS = Won his last 3 races. Seems to be in control of all the races as well. #2 3A athlete at FSU. 5th ranked returner from last years state meet. Dropped 60 secs last year Regional to State.
4. (6) Matthew Cashin, 11 -- Leon HS = Regional champ over #2 ranked Clark. Only 2nd win against him in any high school race including track. Lost to him by 7secs at PreState.
5. (5) Blake Lowery, 12 -- Gainesville HS = A.K.A. Thomas Lowery? Another win @ Regionals.
6. (4) Joshua Collins, 10 --Belen Jesuit Preparatory School = 45sec improvement from last year. Came in 2nd to Cross @ Regionals. Been steady all year.
7. (7) Jaime Lopez, 12 --Belen Jesuit Preparatory School = closed the Gap to his teammate Collins to 15-20 after returning from a few weeks off mid season.
8. (9) Adam Wallenfelsz, 12- Leon = 3rd @ regional and closing the gap on Clark. 15:49 at PreStates. Should really lay it down on Saturday after laying down a great time at regional.
9. (13) Joseph Storey, 11 -- Creekside HS = Strong showing at Regionals. Seems to get a little stronger every race. Closed the gap on local challenger Wallenfelsz.
10. (8) Austin Dodson, 12 -- Chiles = 3rd @ Districts just behind Storey and the 2 Chiles boys.
11. (14) Jordan Bubar, 12 -- Bartram Trail = 8 secs off Storey at Districts and seemed to "tempo" regionals.
12. (11) Nicholas Roca, 12 -- Belen Jesuit Preparatory School = Had what seems 2 off races back to back with his only 2 runs in the 17s since his run on the notable slow DDD.
13. (16) Matthew Newland, 10 -- Chiles HS = Team mates working together 7 secs away from his PreState time.
14. (12) Michael Phillips, 10 -- Chiles HS = Team mates working together 7 secs away from his PreState time. Dead heat with Dodson @ Districts.
15. (N/A) Austin Camps, 10 -- West Shore = Getting faster all year. 3rd at region, splitting the Belen boys.
4A Boys Rankings
By: Jorge Fleitas, Dr. Phillips HS, jfleitas28@gmail.com
Team Rankings:
Commentary: Regionals really shook things up in 4A. I thinks this
is the hardest year to predict who will deliver the blow to STA for state
meet... It's hard to be a favorite in 4A there are so many good teams... Im
gonna call an upset... My gut tells me there will be an upset... But this is
how I'm going to rank them for now... I think Region 1 ran surprisingly slow
but I'm still adding 15sec per team average.... In Region 2 I believe the
course ran slow -15 sec per team average.... In Region 3 I believe the course
ran fare... So +-0 sec.... In Region 4 Larry and Penny I removed about 20 sec
on team average....
Rank. Team- Comments
1. St. Thomas Aquinas- 1st
Region 4 16:58... New Team average16:38
2. Lyman- 4th Region 1 16:41... New Team average 16:56...It's been only 336 days since the Greyhounds won a
state title but I feel we've already forgotten how good they were on that day
and are... If Le Grand performs as good as he did last year they pool the upset
and win... Hodges has been consistent all year and will be Lyman's 5 not there
4...
3. Sarasota- 1st Region 2 17:13... New Team
average 16:58- The more I look at this team the more I
like them as a favorite in 2015. But I can't pull the trigger because it will
be there first rodeo in 4A... Trust me it's not the same as 3A...
4. Mandarin- 1st Region 1 16:48... New Team
average 17:03- Put a really good romping on Region 1.
The Mustangs are doing their thing, and seem to be a possible favorite in 2015.
On a side note the Mustangs finished 10th in the select race at FSU.... That's
the only reason I don't have them as a favorite or on the podium
5. Coral Reef- 3rd Region 4 17:26.. New Team
average 17:06.. The reef did not run its #5 last week
and that's the only reason I jumped them over WS, Columbus, and Ferguson...
Redondo performed last year at states and ran a 16:51 that's
replacing an 18:09.... If Reef puts it together they
have the potential to finish 2nd... If not they can drop out of the top 10...
They need Cameron, and Redondo to run well to have a shot at a podium finish.
6. Winter Springs- 2nd Region 1 17:00... New Team
average 17:15- Ran hard and gave the Mustang's a run for
their money. It's absolutely ridiculous to think that they might not make
a podium finish! I had them favorited to win back in August but they never
recovered when they lost their #5... Unfortunately that loss put them off the
podium and lands them here at the #6 slot...
7. Ferguson- 2nd Region 4 17:20... New Team
average 17:00- Stomped on Reef and Columbus, but we
didn't move them up much because both teams had key runners missing in their
top 5... If Ferguson can put it together like they have been doing it at Larry
and Penny they can squeeze into a podium finish.
8. Columbus- 4th Region 4 17:32... New Team
average 17:12.. If Humberto leads the charge the
Hellions have the talent to finish on the podium... The real deciding factor
will be whether or not Deshay can perform on a big stage like he did in
Track... If Humberto and Deshay don't perform the Hellions drop out of the top
10... If they do they can finish on the podium.
9. Freedom- 3rd Region 1 17:00... New Team
average 17:15- The Patriots crew has ran every race in
the post season amazing. They keep getting better because McKee is now there
#5... If McKee performs like he has the potential to do.... We could see a
sleeper in Freedom to finish on the podium!
10. George Steinbrenner- 2nd Region 2 17:43 New
Team average: 17:28... There's no shame in losing to a
better team like Sarasota.. Unfortunately, if they can't get there 4
& 5 running sub 17:20 about 6 teams behind them will
be shooting for that 10th spot!
11. Lake Mary- 5th Region 1 17:07..New Team
average 17:22 -After this weekend you would likely
suggest that this team will provide very little in terms of intimidation but do
not be fooled the Rams have not put together that perfect race all season and
if they do they may be able to crack into the top 7.
12. Dr. Phillips- 6th Region 1 17:14... New Team
average 17:29- Youth and inexperience but plenty of
explosion in this team... If it's number 3 And 5 run what they are capable of I
have them in the top 10. But for now this is where the panthers will fall!
13. HB Plant- 5th Region 2 17:47... New Team
average 17:22... Look legit up front with 3 great
runners... The the 4&5 is putting points up and that's what made them
fall out of the top 10 in my book. I kinda feel bad about shunning them
before...but I reserve the right to retract my original statement if they
perform as they did at Regionals.. They have the potential to finish on the
podium but it will be really hard to bounce back after last weeks run...
14. Newsome- 3rd Region 2 17:49... New Team
Average 17:34... They have the potential to climb up the
rankings pending where there pack falls... This spot may be a stretch for
Newsome but I don't see any other team that can potentially knock them out of
the top 15....
15. John I Leonard- Region 3 17:29- I
believe John I Leonard is the only team in their Region 3 that seems to
have it together enough to place in the top 15.... I could be wrong but that's
my gut...
16. Bloomingdale- 4th Region 2 17:47 ... New Team
average 17:36
17. Vero Beach- 2nd Region 3 17:3
18. North Port- Region 2 17:54.. New Team average
17:39
19. Spanish River- 3rd Region 3 17:49
20. Cypress Bay- 5th Region 4 18:06... New Team
average 17:46
21. Martin County- 4th Region 3 18:05
22. Coral Glades- 5th Region 3 18:11
23. Melbourne- 6th Region 3 18:09
24. Braddock- 6th Region 4 New Team average 17:56
Individual Rankings:
Rank. Name, Flrunners Profile Link
1. Joshua Jacques<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/2824889-joshua-jacques>
2. Adam Bradtmueller<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/2884459-adam-bradtmueller>
3. Jordan Armstrong<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/2824733-jordan-armstrong>
4. Carlin Berryhill<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/1791253-carlin-berryhill>
5. Justin Pacifico<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/3142483-justin-pacifico>
6. Dominic Williams<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/2836583-dominic-williams>
7. Andrew Stivers<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/3632828-andrew-stivers>
8. Haftom Fliegelman<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/5489852-haftom-fliegelman>
9. Humberto Freire<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/3192862-humberto-freire>
10. Paris Williams<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/2850610-paris-williams>
11. Sanchez, Ilio<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/2821951>
12. McFetridge, Calum<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/3670670>
13. Sessoms, Terrance<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/3678152>
14. Doyle, Timothy<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/4540745>
15. Pruim, Cole<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/3648443>
16. Fuller, Evan<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/4517737>
17. Figueroa, Jan<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/2878274>
18. D'Haiti, Jean M.<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/3153870>
19. Breslin, Sean<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/3612716>
20. Granberg, Joseph<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/2880778>
21, Statham, Pierce<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/3612715>
22. Hill, Brady<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/2884479>
23. Leverone, Rob<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/2889616>
24. Salerno, Joseph<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/4557354>
25. Rojas, Guillermo<http://fl.milesplit.com/athletes/2980649>
Note:
- Please remember that all of these rankings are done by volunteers and are meant to increase the overall enjoyment of the sport for athletes, coaches, parents, and fans. They are just for fun and should not have a lot of weight put on them. But if you have issues (such as a missed athlete or team), please email the individual pollster for your classification / gender.
- Please direct any major concerns to Flrunners Administrator / FACA Rankings Representative: Coach Ryan Raposo- ryanraposo@gmail.com