This has been a great year for Florida cross country! Kathryn Fluehr is currently ranked second in the nation and a few other girls may have a shot. It seems to be one of the deepest years we've seen on the boys side and many expect a number to make it through. But what is the reality? And who from other states stand in the way?
It always sounds easier than it is. Making it through the McAlpine Park course at Footlocker South against the best runners in 13 states is no easy task. It's a lot harder than just comparing times, which tend to favor Florida runners and inflate hopes with our flat coures.
Historically, it takes a performance of about 15:10 for the boys and 17:35 for girls to make it in the top ten that gets a plane ticket to San Diego. The course at McAlpine Park is a fast one where many athletes (especially from other states used to running hills) end up putting up big PRs. And of course the well known "gotcha" is that the leaders need to get out faster than they are used to for the first mile. That can be as quick as 4:30-4:35 for the boys and 5:15-5:20 for girls in some years.
After a lot of research and interviews with some of our state webmasters in the Region, here is what it looks like.
TOP TEN GIRLS FAVORITES
Carolyn Baskir (NC) - Winning Great American in 17:14 certainly puts her as a contender to win Footlocker South on a good day! She was second at her 4A State Meet in 18:14 (first place is not running Footlocker) and also won the hugely competitive Maymont meet in 17:42.
Emma Brink (KY) - Second place performance at the Midwest Meet of Champions (18:17) and state champ in Kentucky (18:45). Ninth best returner from last year.
Megan Ferowich (TN) - It looks like this is the sophomore's first cross country season. She has been a pretty consistent low 18s runner all year, though she has not ventured to large meets to face top national competition. She does have 5:01 mile speed which could be a big help. She absolutely dominated the Tennessee state meet with a 17:47 a few weeks ago. To compare, former national champion Kathy Kroeger ran times of 16:59 her sophomore year and 17:08 her senior year... so it's a relatively fast course. But still, Ferowich was something ridiculous like a minute and a half faster than second place... so needless to say she was not pushed! 10:26 recently for two miles in a time trial on the track... and even backed off the last 800.
Erika Fluehr (FL) - Erika has been in second place every meet this season! To her sister of course! Her fastest time was 17:17 (at region) and slowest was 17:56 (at Ft. Myers Optimist), so she's been pretty consistently fast all year... completing her season with a 17:35 time at State. A lot of what was said about Kathryn applies here as far as experience. Last year she beat her sister at NXN Southeast (their only out of state experience) and qualified in 10th place for NXN Nationals (but did not go).
Kathryn Fluehr (FL) - Kathryn has been nothing short of amazing this year! She has run under 17:30 in every race this season including 17:00 at flrunners, 17:16 at Prestate, 17:01 at Region, and a course record 16:59 at state. There is certainly a lot of reason to think she could be a national title contender out in San Diego. But then there is the one big "but". There is no doubt that she (and her sister) have had a breakthrough year and are among the best runners in the nation, BUT the lack of experience in major races is a big question mark. The have had a walk in the park all year long this year and it remains to be seen what will happen when suddenly Kathryn is among company. She'll need to get out quick the first mile also. With the 16:59 performance at state including a sub-11 two mile split though that has to be a big confidence booster. You just can't take qualifying at McAlpine for granted... just ask Ashley Brasovan.
Wesley Frazier (NC) - She is the best freshman in the nation and has burst onto the scene this year. She has been in the 17-minute range in every race this year including a dominating early season win at the adidas Seahawk Invitational over Carolyn Baskir 17:05 to 17:58! She was the 3A State Champ in North Carolina with a 17:36 win that put her over a minute in front of her cloest competitor.
Rachel Johnson (TX) - Second at the 5A State Meet in 10:48. 5K season best of 18:07 and a huge 18:18 victory at Nike South in October (over 40 seconds in front of Regan Tindell and Hillary Montgomery). She was also second at NXN South last weekend in 18:46.
Cory McGee (MS) - It's hard to get a good read on Cory because she doesn't run outside of Mississippi pretty much ever and just dominates in her own state. To make it even harder they run 4K in Mississippi so she hasn't run a 5K all year. She's run a couple of 4Ks in the 14:40 range, which is okay but not overly impressive. She qualified for nationals two years ago and just missed the cut last year. But she always seems to show up and run well at Footlocker South. Sixth returner from Footlocker South last year.
Amanda Russell (TX) - This girl is big on the #3!! Third at 5A State in 10:58 for two miles. Third at NXN South in 19:02. AND she is the third best returner from Footlocker South last year. Her 5K season best is 18:18, but she's only run one 5K. Qualified for Nationals last year.
Chelsey Sveinsson (TX) - She flies under the radar somewhat just because she doesn't race in that many big meets and when she does it's usually a two mile (standard in Texas for girls). Her one 5K this year was a 17:32 at the Chile Pepper Invitational in Arkansas. In June she swept the national titles in the mile and two mile with times of 4:40 and 10:04. She could certainly win it all in San Diego and she will be a seasoned vet out there... the junior already qualified for Nationals her freshman and sophomore years. Her best performance this year was a dominating 10:31 at the OSU Cowboy Jamboree in Oklahoma.
GIRLS WATCH LIST
Any of these girls could qualify on a good day...
Anna Bowles (GA) - 18:17 5K season best and 4A State Champ in 18:28. She is the 13th returner from last year's meet.
Malia Cali (LA) - What's up with all of these Gulf States and their weird distances? Louisiana still runs 3 miles and Malia has walked all over the competition there this season incluing a 17:26 three mile at her state meet (winning by 1:15). She came over to Florida once this year to the Gulf Coast Stampede and ran a 17:55 to win that one by a minute. In her best race this year she ran a 17:48 at the Mobile Meet of Champions where she beat studs Nicky Akande of Georgia (who will be at NXN SE instead of Footlocker or she'd be a favorite) and Carmen Carlos of Alabama (on watch list below). On a negative mark, she had a horrible race at NXN South last week and finished in 26th place in 20:17--not sure what was up with that.
Carmen Carlos (AL) - This freshman won her 6A State Meet by over a minute in 17:43 (personal best). She was also the Southeast Showdown champion in 18:22.
Nicole Carpio (FL) - Not sure if Nicole is running or not, she's not on the early entry list. She did well last year and would have an outside shot. Finish in third at state behind Schappert and Strasser. 6th place 17:55 at flrunners.
Kaitlyn Davis (VA) - 18:09 season best 5K. Was the top time at our Disney Classic heat fest in 19:00. And she was third at state in 18:21. 20th returner from last year.
Samantha George (NC) - 18:12 season best 5K, 12th place at Great American, third at the 4A State meet in 18:48.
Sophie Harkins (GA) - 11th at Great American in 18:25 (her PR). Has not performed well since then.
Shelby Hayes (FL) - Had best run of the year at flrunners.com where she hung on to Erika Fluehr and finished in third place 17:31. She'll need to do that again to qualify. She is certainly capable of sneaking in the top ten. State champ in 4A in 18:13.
Ashley Isham (TX) - Beat Amanda Russell early in the season at McNiel Invitational with a time of 18:04--her only 5K of the year. She is also the fourth best returner from Footlocker South last year and a former Footlocker finalist. With that said, she has not looked very impressive lately. She ran an 11:40 for 14th place at the Texas 5A State Meet and she was 18th at NXN South in 20:00.
Kim Kirby (TX) - 11:02 season best for two miles and 7th at 5A State in 11:24.
Sydney Marshall (GA) - 2nd at 5A State Meet in 18:34. 16th returner from Footlocker South last year.
Stephanie Schappert (FL) - Her top time came with her 4th place finish at flrunners in 17:50, she ran sub 18 three times during the season including her 2A state championship in 17:58. 21st returner.
Allie Schaich (GA) - 18:04 (4th place) in October at McAlpine, beating Laura Hoer (one of the top three runners in NC). She was third in the state of GA with 18:49.
Jana Stolting (FL) - Jana has had a really great year, capped off by a 17:51.60 performance at the state meet, her third trip under 18 this season. She would have been the state champ with that time in any other classification, but the Fluehrs got in her way and put her in third! 19th returner from last year.
Stephanie Strasser (FL) - Second in the 2A behind Stephanie Schappert in 18:02. Strasser was 7th place at the flrunners.com Invitational in 17:56.
Regan Tindell (TX) - Finished in fourth place last week at NXN South in 19:08 (not a fast course) after running two miles most of the year as is custom in Texas. Her best two mile time this year as 11:14. Fifth best returner from last year's meet.
Katherine Walker (VA) - 18:11 season best 5K. 4th at state in 18:24.
TOP TEN BOYS FAVORITES
Will fill in more for boys descriptions ASAP.
Brian Atkinson (FL) - Winning Great American (15:13) certainly bodes well for Atkinson's chances and he has big race experience... he won NXN Southeast last year and has twice raced Footlocker his freshman and sophomore years. Atkinson is the three-time 4A State champ, winning this year in 15:20--the fastest time of any classification in Florida.
Ryan Eaton (KY) - State Champ, Southeast Showdown Champ 15:40.
Kirubel Errassa (GA) - 5A State Champ 15:09, Gulf Coast Stampede Champ 15:24. 14:59 season best.
Jake Hurysz (NC) - #1 runner in NC. 5th at Great American in 15:25. State Champ 15:49. Ran a 9:08.5 3200m tune-up on 11/14.
Brandon Lord (TN) - State Champ, 2nd at Southeast Showdown 15:45. Word on the street is he is ready to blow up this weekend.
Craig Lutz (TX) - Nationally ranked by MileSplit US and DyeStat. 14:42 5K season best. Third at NXN South in 16:01.
Matt Mizereck (FL) - Matt is the #2 returner from last year's Footlocker South race. He won flrunners.com Invitational in 14:56 and took his third-straight 3A State Title in 15:21. His state meet performance seemed effortless... starting slow and picking through the pack. Having an "easy" race at state by not killing himself may pay off.
Ted Richardson (VA) - AAA State Champ 15:34, 6th at Maymont 15:46, top ranked runner in VA.
Donovan Torres (TX) - 5th at state 15:18.
Blake Williams (NC) - Maymont Champ 15:32. 15:19 at Wendy's (McAlpine), 9:20.8 in 3200m on 11/14.
BOYS WATCH LIST
Luke Baker (GA) - 1A State Champ 15:51, 11th at Great American 15:41.
Colin Barker (FL) - What a great looking win for the 2A State Championship! He is probably Florida's third best hope at qualifying. With a big day he'll be on the plane.
Jacob Benn (TX) - 6th at state in 15:20. Very good shot.
Mark Blackmon (SC) - 4A State Champ 15:47, 2nd at Wendy's (McAlpine) in 15:18.
Jimmy Clark (FL) - It's been a huge year for Jimmy, with the soccer player taking running really seriously for the first time. He beat Brian Atkinson at Bale-n-Trail in 15:15 in October, followed by a series of great battles with Matt Mizereck and times several times in the 15:20s. 3A State runner-up.
Elliot Clemente (FL) - Huge gutsy race at state that almost paid off in a state championship. He ran like a winner. It would take an awful big performance, but with his 15:28 third place performance last week he's peaking at the right time.
Patrick Crawford (NC) - State champ 15:47, 9:27 3200 on 11/14.
Tyler Davidson (FL) - Just like Clemente, he took the attitude of come big or go home. He lead the thing almost front to back, before falling to a respectable third between Montoya and Wallace in 15:25. Experience is his biggest enemy, but he'll need to get out fast he like did last week at McAlpine to have a shot at qualifying... check that one of the list. Has run some great times this year including a 15:19 at flrunners and a 15:19 solo at region. Big summers pay off don't they, Tyler?!
Kevin Dowd (VA) - AA 3rd place 15:47, 3rd at Maymont 15:37.
Thomas Graham (NC) - 3A State champ 15:38, 9:27 3200 on 11/14.
Max Holman (MS) - 6A State Champ 16:09.
Ty McCormack (GA) - 2nd at 3A State 15:47, 2nd at Great American 15:18
Erick Montoya (FL) - The seventh returner from Footlocker South in 2008. He hung tight to Mizereck and Del Valle at flrunners and finished in third with 15:06. At state he raced hard and was just outkicked by Barker for second place and 15:24.
Josh Morris (VA) - Indepdent State Champ 16:19, apparently has been running really well and giving top guys in VA a run for their money.
Drew Paisley (VA) - AAA 5th place 15:51.
Grant Pollock (VA) - AAA 6th Place 15:56.
John Sharpe (TN) - Tennessee State Champ, fastest time at state 15:50. Ran a 9:22 in a recent 3200 time trial.
Neal Smith (TX) - 12th at NXN South 16:28, 15:08 season best 5K.
Charlie Sparks (GA) - 3rd at 3A State 15:58, 3rd at Southeast Shodown 15:52
Blake Theroux (VA) - AAA Runner-Up 15:38, 13th at Great Ameriacn 15:43.
Michael Wallace (FL) - 13th returner from last year. Took fourth in a big pack of studs in the 2A State meet (15:30). 15:17 at Bale N Trail and 15:18 at flrunners.
This has been a great year for Florida cross country! Kathryn Fluehr is currently ranked second in the nation and a few other girls may have a shot. It seems to be one of the deepest years we've seen on the boys side and many expect a number to make it through. But what is the reality? And who from other states stand in the way?
It always sounds easier than it is. Making it through the McAlpine Park course at Footlocker South against the best runners in 13 states is no easy task. It's a lot harder than just comparing times, which tend to favor Florida runners and inflate hopes with our flat coures.