So the virtual meets were published, but those are just numbers. How about some subjective analysis? As I look over the list of competitors this year and these incredible teams... I am a bit in awe. This is the deepest that I ever remember Florida being EVER in my 14 years of being around the sport at least. The incredible depth of so many teams is just unbelievable and how many individuals are competing at national level caliber times is just stunning. GO FLORIDA! With that said, there can only be eight winners and tomorrow will decide just that. So here is my scouting report of what I am expecting to see out there at the Ranch.
State Meet Coverage Index « This is where everything will be posted to
Virtual State Meet Results « This is what the numbers say
Half Mile Timing Meet Page « Live results will be posted here by the great Scott Peters
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1A Boys
Trinity Prep, Holy Trinity... the rivalry and the history between these two is just crazy. For the past half decade it has been all-out war at the state meet between these two 1A squads whose schools are just an hour apart. This year Trinity Prep has been heavily favored after beating out Miami Columbus for the crown of the state's top boys team--and earning a national ranking. But just when you thought it might be less interesting this year, Holy Trinity blows by the other Trinity last week at the regional meet.
For sure this will be a battle. A big question mark might be Ryan Gousse, who reportedly is suffering from a groin injury that may sideline him, although some have speculated how much of that might just be a psych out strategy. It all will be decided tomorrow!
Unless something off the wall happens--Trinity Prep falling apart or Holy Trinity just blowing the doors off--I would still look for Trinity Prep to take this one. Their depth is just incredible, especially up front. On their squad alone they have three guys who could potentially win the state championship: Griffin Jaworski, Whitner Chase, or Ryan Gousse. And by season best at least, TP's #6 runner is faster than Holy Trinity's #5. So even if you take Gousse completely out of the virtual meet, Trinity Prep still wins it by four points. It's theirs to lose.
The individual battle in this one might be just as interesting, with the three guys from Trinity Prep previously mentioned, David Kilgore of Holy Trinity, and Patrick Swain of Maclay all with legitimate chances. Swain has taken the tape in the past and though he has been flying much under the radar by traveling to few big meets, he could do it again. But the pre-race favorite is definitely recently University of Colorado committee Kilgore.
1A Girls
This one is simply less interesting from a pick-the-winner perspective! Both the team and individual battles here are all but foregone conclusions!
Holy Trinity really has this thing wrapped up. They are one of the top four girls teams overall in the state--along with Estero, Lakewood Ranch, and Chiles--and really there is no one in the 1A who stands much of a chance to interupt their state title romp. That's not meant as a knock on the other 1A teams, because they're certain good ones, just that Holy Trinity is in a league of their own.
Providence School has really come out of obscurity the last few years and have turned into a very good girls team. And they do it with pack power. And as you see with a lot of 1A schools, they are very young. I would look out for Oak Hall though and pick them for the runner-up spot. Their leader is Brittney Olinger and she has had an amazing season. She has progressed right along with the optimistic path that Coach Edwin McTureous has laid out for her and that progression has lead her from being a 19-minute runner entering the season to now being someone who could join the 17-minute club this weekend. Her teammates have also seen steady gains and turned from a team that we placed as borderline for consideration in the flrunners.com ROC (which they proved they deserved) to one of the premier girls teams in Florida.
Individually, it would be an absolute shocker of Kathryn Fluehr did not win. She has not lost in Florida for the past two seasons, qualified for Foot Locker Nationals last year, is ranked #5 in the nation, and is just coming off of a 16:54 performance at region. Her twin sister, Erika, is coming off of a slow start to the season where she had a minor injury and took a little time to find her groove... but she seems to have found it now. Erika also qualified for Nationals last season and ran a 17:13 last week.
Look for Kathryn to pull ahead early and stay there. I seriously doubt if anyone will attempt to go with her, but you never know. There is a little more question of how Erika will play it. In past years, she has always stuck with her sister for as long as she could and maintained at least visual contact. However, this year has played out a little differently and at flrunners.com and Pre-State we saw Erika more mixing it up with the rest of the front pack. So now that she appears to be more back to form from her recent times and closeness to Kathryn what will play out? I would look for a replay of last year with these two pulling away early and not being caught.
But if anyone is going to try to get between the sisters it is looking like it is going to be eighth grader Julie Wolrath. She has burst on to the scene for Holy Trinity this year with some really impressive performances including a fifth place finish at Great American. She will be going in very fresh after laying low and pacing teammates last week at region. Her teammate Teresa Ristow is in a similar situation of being well-rested and Teresa has had some really incredible steady progress all season long... could the senior even upset Wolrath?
The wildcard may be Stefanie Kurgatt. Going into the year many considered her to be a potential Foot Locker Nationals qualifier and potentially the second or third best in the classification, behind the Fluehr twins. But the season hasn't really looked as impressive as many thought--though it should be said that (like Swain) she has remained very low key this year since Maclay has uncharacteristically away from most major meets. We shall see, but if it comes down to a kick double-down on Kurgatt and her 2:14 800/sub-60 400 speed.
2A Boys
The clear favorites are certainly the Estero boys for the team title and Bert Irigoyen of Ransom Everglades for the individual. It just seems like a done deal, but anything can happen!
The Estero boys decided this year that they didn't want their girls to have all the fun, so they really REALLY upped their game from day one. And they really surprised a lot of people--myself included. They are now one of the very best teams in the state--probably top five--and that is saying a lot since this is a very good year for Florida boys teams. They are lead by Aaron Rojas, but their top five has a very tight pack with only 20 seconds or so between their #2 and #5 runners.
Runner-up is a lot less certain. Nease and Berkely Prep are matched very evenly and who comes out on top is anyone's guess... I won't even attempt to prognosticate. At least on paper, there is a pretty big gap after that. I will say that have enjoyed seeing Bishop Kenny have sort of a come back year after faltering for a bit... can't wait to see them back on the podium like they have been year after year in the past. And the new school on the block, Steinbrenner, has really come into its own this year and it's great to see new stud programs be born.
2A Girls
This one is like the 1A Girls team-wise... there are some very good 2A teams in Bolles, Cocoa Beach, and Titusville who in other years would be very likely title contenders. It's just that Estero is in a league of their own here. Considering their sixth runner may potentially finish before any other team's #2 runner does not bode well for any hopes of upset. Not that Estero should get complacent--and I'm sure they won't--but this is more a "who's on second".
And that, my friends, is anyone's guess! Bolles, Cocoa Beach, and Titusville are all looking about dead even. These positions will likely be all decided on the #5 runner. Cocoa Beach and Bolles both start out with a head start with fantastic #1 runners in Shelby Davidson and Rebecca Chandler, but Titusville makes up for it with some solid depth and relatively narrow 1-5 split. The deciding factor swinging the runner-up title toward Bolles though is the 23 second difference between their #2 and #5 runners.
Individually... wow!?! This is one of those cases where if you run this race five times you are likely to have five different winners.
Stephanie Schappert is your defending state champion and she followed up last cross country season with a stellar spring on the track. Over the summer she was invited out to Nike Town to train at the Nike Elite Running Camp with 9 of the other top distance runners in the nation. But once the fall season hit she seemed to falter, even dropping out of the race after falling behind 2A rival Shelby Davidson at South Fork and finishing behind Smith and Davidson (7th overall) at flrunners 11. However, she's been looking very solid for the past month and has won every race she's competed in since October 14 including county, distict, and regional wins. Schappert is known for her get-back-up ferociousness (which has been literal on more than one occassion in the past) so certainly don't count her out of the repeat.
Going off of record, Kacy Smith is the favorite here. Smith has beaten Davidson the two times they've faced this year (Mountain Dew and flrunners) and Kacy went 2-1 against Nicole Carpio (beating her at FACA and Pre-State, but losing out at flrunners). The X-Factor may be Chandler who has only faced off against any of these girls once--and won out. She had a breakthrough race at Pre-State where she went under 18 for the first time with a 17:57 5th place finish that put her one spot ahead of Smith and well almost 20 seconds faster than an under-the-weather Carpio.
Expect these five girls all to be at each other's throats from the gun. I would say that this could end up being a tactical race, but knowing the personalities and intensive competitiveness of especially Davidson, Smith, and Schappert... I doubt they will be looking to leave it as a kicker's race. If it is a kicker's race then edge goes to Schappert. They should push each other all to well under 18 minutes, possibly even to 17:30 territory depending on the pace it goes out in.
3A Boys
Many people may be looking for a two-way battle here between Charlotte and Belen Jesuit, but really it may be three. Going into the year, I think a lot of people looked to Pensacola Washington as the third or fourth overall best team in the state. It hasn't totally panned out that way this year, but it's not how you start he season it's how you end it... and Coach Everett Whiteside has no doubt positioned them to finish it well.
The problem for both Charlotte and Washington, though, is that I believe traditionally Belen Jesuit is the best season-finishing team there is. I learned many years ago as the 2A pollster early last decade not to fret or drop the Wolverines in the rankings if they seem slow early in the season. They always seems slow early in the season, but when it counts... in the post season... they are ready. I expect little different on Saturday.
Charlotte has had their eyes firmly placed on Belen all season long and talked about "closing the gap", a feat which they achieved at Pre-State when they pretty solidly defeated Belen Jesuit. They are really a team that has exceeded all expectations and they have a one-two punch that is impressive even in a classification full of them: Kotick-Fricke of Washington, Doherty-Hazelton of Leon. Tyler Cardillo and Ryan Schnulle are described by Charlotte coach Chris George as mirror images of each other in their stride, work ethic and times. They will most likely be within 10 seconds of each other tomorrow.
Could Leon compete for the state championship? Most likely not. They have a solid shot at interupting one of the top three teams if they falter, but they will need some major help should they want to contend for the win. John Hazelton has been the savior here this year. The senior has stepped up to run side by side with classmate Riley Doherty and that gives them some real firepower up front. In the 3-5 positions though they will need to see something drastic to pull the major upset, such as the return of Will Stanford to prior form perhaps? Would love to see that!
Individually, it looks to be the Jimmy Clark show. Don't get me wrong it's going to be great and close for 80% of the race and not that anyone in this race is going to concede victory... but is pretty well established that Clark is one of the top three runners in the state and the other two are in the 4A race! Clark is currently ranked #24 in the country and ran the fastest time in the state this year with his 14:53 victory at flrunners 11. He suffered his only lost to Del Valle at Pre-State by just a second, beating all of the other guys in this race basically.
Fully expect a great battle up front between Clark, Elliot Clemente of Belen Jesuit and Tyler Cardillo of Charlotte. Clemente and Cardillo have faced each other three times this year and Clemente is up 2-to-1, with Cardillo finishing a second ahead at Pre-State and Clemente winning out with big margins at Mountain Dew and flrunners 11. In all likelihood it will be one of those two for second, but we should get to witness a legendarily huge pack for the first two miles probably. I'd expect Schnulle, Kotick, Fricke, Doherty, Hazelton, Will Bridges of Edgewater, Joe Lindsay of Belen, and freshman Thomas Howell of Niceville all to mix it up in a tight group not likely to string out much until at least half way through the race and likely not until they enter the infield.
I expect Clark to control the pace of this race, especially the last mile. I'd give the odds on Clemente as runner-up and Cardillo fighting to hang on to him for third. With that said, we saw Cardillo's 800 speed last spring and it's pretty impressive.. just how much will he have left in the tank after warring with Clark and Clemente for 2.5?
3A Girls
Classic. Team. Rivalry. This one has turned into a classic with Chiles as the perenial favorite and state champions many times over... with Lakewood Ranch being the young startup bursting on to the scene in 2009. Last year the incumbents from Tallahassee held on. But this year, though they have continued to improve dramatically, they have looked vulnerable. They lost to Holy Trinity early in the season and then suffered defeat to Lakewood Ranch (and Estero) at Pre-State.
Still we are talking two of the top four teams in the state doing battle with little weakness shown on either side.
Chiles has the distinct advantage of only scoring three runners (figuritively, not literally). Lily Williams and Carly Thomas might potentially go 1-2 in this race. Darroneisha Lott of Pine Forest might potentially add a point or two if she gets ahead of one or both, but that would take a big race from Lott. Grace VanDeGrift is also in this race, but as an individual she won't count toward the team score.
Lakewood Ranch for its part has a great 1-2 in Olivia Ortiz and Kristin Zarella (both sophomores by the way), but they just can't match Williams-Thomas. So Chiles has the edge at one and two. On a good day, Chiles has the edge at #3 in Jodie McGuff but its close and will certainly require the A-game which isn't a given. Lakewood Ranch, meanwhile has a 3-4 punch to go along with their 1-2 punch in Devin McDermott and Natalie Novak and that is what really starts to lean the tables in the favor of Ranch. In fact, it would not be altogether surprising to see Lakewood Ranch place their top four in the top ten and if that happens game-set-match. If it does not happen and one of both of those are more like middle to high teens, start looking for number five. And it's completely a toss-up between Ashley Platt of Ranch and Stephanie Reynolds/Sarah Lane of Chiles. So I fully expect this one to be decided by the third and fourth runners, which is rare.
Individually, it's likely a four way race between Williams, Thomas, Lott, and VanDeGrift. The favorite is clearly Williams, who has been extremely impressive all season just like she was last year. However, remember, that last season after being the #2 runner on her team all year long it was Thomas--not Williams--that ended up with the state champion! Lott, meanwhile, has been having a quiet and secluded (but GREAT) season way up there in Pensacola and not facing any top Florida rivals all year long unless last week when she finished between Williams and Thomas. Lott has SPEED so in a kicker's race look out! Don't count out VanDeGrift either... she started out slowly but has progressed through the season and looks ready.
Also look out for Anne-Marie Blaney, who has the tendancy to really come out of no where at state. You tend to forget about her since her team does not travel to big meets during the season and so she doesn't run fast times or race the big names.
4A Boys
While there is some buzz on the forum about the team battle here... it really should be in the hands of Columbus. If they execute it is theirs. Plain and simple no one has their depth. NO ONE.
Dr. Phillips has been doing its part to make it interesting, though. With the continued success of Josh Boggs, improvement from Daniel Millay, and breakout of new ace Logan Kruse they look SHARP through three. But Columbus answers tit for tat and leaves little doubt at 4-5-6. Colonial has also had a great year, lead by sophomore Andres Arroyo, but again just can't math the depth.
All indications are that the gold medal will end up around one of those two guys' necks. It would be a shock to see otherwise. But there are some guys who could do it... most likely are Max del Monte of Chamberlain, Phil Duncan of Boone or Eduardo Garcia of Mandarin. Kruse, Nick Posada of Winter Park, Chase Sutton of Seminole (who doesn't see much competition during the year to gauge well), or JL Hines of Boone could potentially have a career race and challenge, but not likely. No matter, those guys and others make this race absolutely stacked and should be fun to see how many head under 15:30 and 16:00. I expect to see the course record fall in this one, like it did at Pre-State. I'm calling it: top three in the 14s.
4A Girls
Lourdes and Plant. Two of the traditional female powerhouse teams of the past two decades. Back at it again! The virtual meet shows only two points between them. It's going to be intense!
The truly stunning thing about Lourdes is their DEPTH. I have said the word depth probably a dozen times already in this article, but only put it in all caps once. Lourdes has DEPTH (ok, now twice). 25 second 1-5 split at Pre-State and just 8 seconds 1-5 split by season best times! And their six and seven are just about even... in fact, they're so close they don't even know who their top five is. It's just a little ridiculous and plain showing off. (just kidding)
Plant, for its part, has really come on strong this year and returned to the Plant I remember from my high school days in the late 90s--just without Caroline Annis. They've got some great firepower up front with a 1-2-3 thumping that is just plain hard to compete with. But to compete with Lourdes' DEPTH (3 times) they are going to need big days from their 4 and 5 runners.
Sophomore Bridget Blake is far and away the favorite, after she has done crazy well this season following her stellar freshman track season (4:57 1600, 10:59 3200). She is expected to win big; however... there is a young lady named Vanessa Valetine, who is as tough as nails. She does not like to lose. And I don't mean just dislikes it but she HATES IT, like if she had to choose between losing and.... okay... it's 4AM and my creative writing skills are failing me. But the point is, if you have talked to Vanessa Valetine you know that she is a pit bull. And she is going to go after that state championship and be content with nothing less. Her partner in crime is sprinter-turned-distace-runner Elle Baker and she will likely try to keep touch with Valentine as long as she can giving Melbourne a nice combination up front.
Not to speak poorly of some of the other studs in this one, Emily Ahrens and Grace Thomas of Vero, Blake's teammate Dana Demsky, Mary Kate Ponder of Mandarin, or Rodriguez and Kissell of Plant... but I really don't expect anyone else to contend with Blake and Valentine for first. But that third place position will be a blood bath.
OKAY, THAS'ALL FOLKS! SEE YOU OUT THERE AT THE RANCH!!!