GIRLS STATE RANKINGS
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1A Girls Rankings |
By: Nathan Means, Mount Dora Bible School, nathan.means@chbs.org | ||
Team Rankings: |
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| Commentary: Finally, the end to the futility!!! One last posting of pontifications and we'll finally get to see these girls head-to-head for all the cookies. I've run this list according to (my own secret formula of adjusted) regional performances, which aren't always indicative of a teams actual current state (though moreso than district outings) but there were a lot of good averages at the regional meets. Oak Hall still looks best, dominating on the slow Trinity Prep course. Providence appears solidly ahead of Holy Trinity on paper because of their #4 & #5 runners. Maclay is looking good for 4th. An apology to Community School of Naples. I ranked you #9 last week, then failed to mention you in my predictions of making it out of Region 3. I'll make it up to you by moving you up higher - you earned it with your 2nd place finish to Holy Trinity in your region. Westminster also looked strong on their slightly slow course. Truth be told, from #7 back, it's all up to who leaves it all on the course on Saturday. | |||
| Team Name, Region | (Prev.) | Comments: | |
| 1. | Oak Hall School, R2 | (1) | 19:22 average at Pre-State Elite race (20:08 at Region 2) |
| 2. | Providence School, R1 | (3) | 19:45 average at Region 1 |
| 3. | Holy Trinity Academy, R3 | (2) | 19:44 average at Holy Trinity (19:58 at Region 3) |
| 4. | Maclay School, R1 | (5) | 20:04 average at Region 1 |
| 5. | Community School of Naples, R3 | (9) | 20:36 average at Region 3 |
| 6. | Westminster Academy, R4 | (13) | 21:10 average at Region 4, CSN is within reach |
| 7. | Lakeland Christian, R3 | (11) | 20:51 average at Region 3 |
| 8. | Northside Christian, R3 | (6) | 20:38 average at Pre-State Elite race (20:49 at Region 3) |
| 9. | Shorecrest Prep, R3 | (12) | 21:05 average at Region 3 |
| 10. | Keswick Christian, R3 | (8) | 21:09 average at Region 3 (actually beat Shorecrest by 3, don't see it happenning at state) |
| 11. | Trinity Prep, R2 | (7) | 21:08 average at District 6 meet (21:20 at Region 2) |
| 12. | Circle Christian, R2 | (4) | 20:48 average at District 7 meet (21:12 at Region 2) |
| 13. | Benjamin School, R4 | (10) | 21:05 average at District 13 meet (21:50 at Region 4) |
| 14. | Seffner Christian, R2 | (15) | 21:26 average at District 8 meet (21:45 at Region 2) |
| 15. | Pope John Paul II, R4 | (NR) | 21:57 average at Region 4 |
Individual Rankings: |
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| Commentary: This list is tough and I'm glad we finally get to see them all run against each other. A lot of these are changed up from last week based on regional performances only. Several new girls popped in and a few are back after absences. They at least deserve some recognition for their achievments last week. Wollrath remains atop, Kurgatt's running strong as is Greenleaf, and I believe Seymour can actually give Julie a run for her money. Candiano's been off pace the last two weeks, but that may mean nothing. If she's 100%, this is going to be a truly great race up front. All five girls know what it takes to lead or hold back as necessary. The winner will run the smartest, gutsiest race of the lot. | |||
| Athlete Name, Grade – Team | (Prev.) | Time, Comments: | |
| 1. | Julie Wollrath, 9 - Holy Trinity Academy | (1) | 18:12 @ Region 3 |
| 2. | Stefanie Kurgatt, 11 - Maclay School | (4) | 18:16 @ Region 1 |
| 3. | Katelyn Greenleaf, 12 - Northside Christian | (6) | 18:22 @ Region 3 |
| 4. | Bryce Seymour, 11 - Circle Christian School | (3) | 18:35 @ Region 2 |
| 5. | Danielle Van Liere, 8 - Providence School | (7) | 18:34 @ Regoin 1 |
| 6. | Claire Snyder, 10 - Tampa Prep | (9) | 18:58 @ Region 2 |
| 7. | Adair Lyden, 8 - Westminster Academy | (12) | 19:21 @ Region 4 |
| 8. | Brittney Olinger, 10 - Oak Hall School | (5) | 19:12 @ Regoin 2 |
| 9. | Kristin Sweeney, 11 - Maclay School | (17) | 19:02 @ Region 1 |
| 10. | Kelly Fahey, 11 - Trinity Prep | (10) | 19:25 @ Region 2 |
| 11. | Sabrina Whiting, 10 - Seffner Christian Academy HS | (13) | 19:33 @ Region 2 |
| 12. | Emily Chapman, 9 - Brevard HEAT | (18) | 19:24 @ Region 3 |
| 13. | Caroline Pauls, 12 - Calvary Christian | (NR) | 20:01 @ Region 4 |
| 14. | Mallory White, 11 - Lakeland Christian | (11) | 19:30 @ Region 3 |
| 15. | Rebecca Eaves, 12 - Lakeland Christian | (NR) | 19:33 @ Region 3 |
| 16. | Brianna Wahy, 11 - Holy Trinity Academy | (22) | 19:35 @ Reigon 3 |
| 17. | Sarah Candiano, 9 - Evangelical Christian School | (2) | 19:38 @ Region 3 |
| 18. | Lauren Perry, 7 - Oak Hall School | (8) | 19:51 @ Region 2 |
| 19. | Emily Stallings, 10 - Providence School | (16) | 19:33 @ Region 1 |
| 20. | Lindsay Tomaini, 8 - Community School of Naples | (NR) | 19:42 @ Region 3 |
| 21. | Denae Chapman, 8 - Circle Christian School | (19) | 19:57 @ Region 2 |
| 22. | Camille Jackson, 11 - Providence | (NR) | 19:39 @ Region 1 |
| 23. | Victoria Camargo, 9 - Florida Christian | (NR) | 20:21 @ Region 4 |
| 24. | Olivia Rovin, 7 - Shorecrest Prep | (23) | 19:49 @ Region 3 |
| 25. | Sarah McBeath, 11 - Evangelical Christian | (NR) | 19:50 @ Region 3 |
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2A Girls Rankings |
By: Gerry Spring, Lake Highland Prep, gspring@lhps.org | ||
Team Rankings: |
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| Commentary: Another season has flown by and it is time for the state meet! Congratulations to all athletes and teams that qualified for the Ranch this season. This year is a tough one - I still think any one of four teams can take it all in 2A this year. These teams may have to go to to number 6 to decide it. After the top 4/5 team it is even more competitive to see who will make top 10. Good luck to all next week - Apologies to all who feel slighted or neglected ahead of time! | |||
| Team Name | (Prev.) | Comments: | |
| 1. | Bolles | (2) | Strong showing at district and region back to back - peaking at the right time |
| 2. | Cocoa Beach | (1) | Shelby will drop the 1 spot - can her team mates step up to support? |
| 3. | Bishop Kenny | (4) | On paper still the best 1-5 team in the field - but it wont be one in virtual space. |
| 4. | American Heritage | (3) | Also peaking at the right time - this group could pull off the upset. |
| 5. | Carrolton | (5) | This still seems to be the most solid group from the southern regions - can they drop enough to pressure the top 4? |
| 6 | Episcopal | (12) | Solid results - they keep improving |
| 7 | Pinecrest | (8) | Solid all the way around- strong region showing. |
| 8 | Bishop Moore | (7) | A little hiccup at region - Can they regroup for state |
| 9 | Gulf | (13) | Very impressive job at region - can do well at state led by Ms. Grippo |
| 11 | Immokalee | (14) | Solid result behind Cocoa Beach at Region. |
| 12 | Lincoln park | (6) | Any of these teams in these spots can move up at the ranch - Lpark may be one |
| 13 | Academy of Holy Names | (15) | My sleeper pick _ I think they will surprise many at State |
| 14 | Eastside | (NR) | Might deserve to be higher - good results from a tough region! |
| 15 | Lemon Bay | (NR) | Held off a solid Titusville team at region. |
| 16 | Titusville | (11) | Solid team all season - can they make a push at the ranch? |
| 17 | Ransom Everglades | (10) | Could be much higher as well - still improving - I think they will jump some teams |
| 18 | Pensacola Catholic | (NR) | Often left out of the conversation bc they run in the tough region 1. |
| 19 | Wakulla | (NR) | Also from region 1 - can they peak at the right time? |
| 20 | Robinson | (NR) | Solid 1 and 2 can lead them to a strong result for the team at the ranch. |
Individual Rankings: |
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| Athlete Name, Grade – Team | (Prev.) | Time, Comments: | |
| 1. | Shelby Davidson - C Beach | (1) | She is clearly the 2A leader- no pressure but clearly leads the pack! |
| 2. | Daesha Rogers - Am Heritage | Going shake things up and put the young gun here - good luck | |
| 3. | Kari Grippo - Gulf | Solid season - will rebound from the region meet | |
| 4. | Ashley Heitling- Mt Dora | My sleeper pick - looked solid at the region 2 meet | |
| 5. | Joanna McCoy - Gulliver | I think she rebounds from region at the ranch | |
| 6. | Savanna Gornisiewicz- P Crest | Holds on to 6th - but I think she is also a good pick to stir things up | |
| 7. | Kaysi Roberts- West Fl Tech | Big jump for the Region 1 champ - can she stay with the lead pack? | |
| 8. | Rachelle Alexander - Am Heritage | Strong 1-2 punch up front Am Heritage. | |
| 9. | Mackenzie Wilson- Episcopal | Another excellent race at region 1!!! | |
| 10. | Colleen Doherty AHN | My other "sleeper" pick - look for her to make a statement at dade city | |
| 11. | Maria Balcazar Carrolton | Leads a solid result for Carrollton - not too far behind AH | |
| 12. | Claire Castillo Titusville | Leads a solid Titusville team all season | |
| 13 | Christine Griggs - Episcopal | I think she will run with her team mate and do a great job! | |
| 14 | Mary Kate Thyfault BK | Still leads strong team effort - can they break through at the Ranch? | |
| 15 | Kelly Hensley - Lincoln Park | Helps keep Lpark in the hunt - can move up as well. | |
| 16 | Maleia Storm - C Beach | Still a key part for the CB puzzle for the state meet - how will the pieces fit? | |
| 17 | Mikayla Hodges - Arnold | Moves up after region. | |
| 18 | Ella Wurth- Pinecrest | A lot of faster results for her and team recently - can they keep it up? | |
| 19 | Julia Deyoung - Robinson | Another strong result at region. | |
| 20 | Madison Hull - Robinson | Led a strong 1-2 punch for Arnold at Districts! | |
| 21 | Lauren Archer RE | I think she can break in in the top 20- solid all season. | |
| 22 | Lilly Arnold _ Bolles | My other "sleeper" pick - look for her to make a statement | |
| 23 | Sarah Jones Bolles | Pack running!!!! | |
| 24 | Tia Rose Raymond Am Heritage | Will this be the year for a team from the south? | |
| 25 | Rachel Rice Bolles | Always remember - we look at times but it is all about place - solid group from Bolles!! | |
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3A Girls Rankings |
By: Andy Holmes, Seffner Christian Academy, aholmes@scacrusaders.com | ||
Team Rankings: |
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| Commentary: Estero is still my pick to win Saturday, but it will be closer than most people think. Chiles is not ready to be dethroned just yet. It will come down to, in my opinion, which school's number 4 and 5 runners perform the best. Creekside is not too far behind Chiles with their solid 1-5 pack. Any one of about 4 teams can grab the final 2 top 5 spots- Lakewood Ranch, St. Cloud, Fort Walton Beach, or Niceville | |||
| Team Name, Region | (Prev.) | Comments: | |
| 1. | Estero, 3 | (1) | 18:58; Can they win it all in 3A first year after making switch from 2A? I think they will, but it will not be easy |
| 2. | Chiles, 1 | (2) | 18:46; Usually perform well with their backs up against the wall. Do not be shocked if they pull the upset |
| 3. | Creekside, 1 | (3) | 19:12; Just a 1:001-5 split at Region met- could really make things interesting if #5 steps up |
| 4. | Lakewood Ranch, 3 | (4) | 19:31; Status of Zarrella unknown, may be tough to finish higher than 3, but no worse than 5 |
| 5. | St. Cloud, 2 | (6) | 19:57; Ran on very slow course this week, would not be shocked if they finish higher- just a :51 second 1-5 split |
| 6. | Fort Walton Beach, 1 | (5) | 19:30; Could have great showing if gap between #1 and #2 narrows; just 7 second split between those 4 at regionals |
| 7. | Niceville, 1 | (8) | 19:52; Have been looking up to FWB this year, but could keep it close |
| 8. | Wiregrass Ranch, 2 | (7) | 20:15; Very close with Niceville ;team has continued to drop time each week |
| 9. | Gulf Coast, 3 | (10) | 20:13; Also very close with Niceville and WR, could place as high as 7th |
| 10. | Fort Myers, 3 | (9) | 20:10; Tied with Gulf Coast at Region 3 meet, lost on tie breaker. Emily Edwards could really provide a lift |
| 11. | Nease, 1 | (12) | 20:03; This team continues to impress me each week; no real stars, but very consistent |
| 12. | Merritt Island, 4 | (11) | 20:51; Ran in the heat at Regional meet, won fairly easily, should be ready to roll |
| 13. | Northeast, 3 | (14) | 20:31; One of the top teams along the Suncoast; qualified out of a pretty tough Region 3 |
| 14. | Melbourne, 2 | (16) | 20:40; Good team average, key will be closing 2 minute gap between #4 and #5 |
| 15. | Osceola, 3 | (NR) | 20:36; Has run pretty evenly with Northeast this year, so moving up a few spots would be a strong possibility |
| 16. | Stanton Prep, 1 | (NR) | 20:32; Solid Region 1 team; I wouldn't be shocked if they finished much higher |
| 17. | East Ridge, 2 | (NR) | 21:22; Surprised even me with a great 3rd place finish at Region 2 |
| 18. | King, 2 | (19) | 21:26; Team is eyeing a top 10 finish, seems to be peaking at right time with emergence of Kolilas |
| 19. | Cardinal Gibbons, 4 | (23) | 21:09; 3rd place out of Region 4; could really make a push for top 15 |
| 20. | Lake Region, 2 | (NR) | 20:52; Seems to come together at the right time every year to get to state |
| 21. | Winter Springs, 2 | (NR) | 21:40; Another surprise finisher out of Region 2 |
| 22. | South Fork, 4 | (22) | 21:41; Has been duking it out with Martin County all year, one more time Saturday |
| 23. | Martin County, 4 | (21) | 21:46; Moving up a few spots still possible |
| 24. | Jensen Beach, 4 | (NR) | 22:12; Final qualifying spot in Region 4 |
Individual Rankings: |
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| Commentary: For this week's State Meet rankins, #1-#10 runners are the predicted order of finish at the meet. #11-#50 are based on regional meet results. Course variance dictating individual rankings quite a bit. Region 1 was the fastest course, Region 2 was very slow, while Regions 3-4 appeared to run moderate. I estimated Region 2 to be about 45 seconds slow, and Regions 3 and 4 to be between 25-30 seconds slow. Any of about 6 girls have a real shot to win. Ortiz is my pick to win, but there will be several others with a chance coming up the final hill | |||
| Athlete Name, Grade – Team | (Prev.) | Time, Comments: | |
| 1. | Olivia Ortiz, 11 Lakewood Ranch | (1) | 17:49; Has repeatedly beat the state's best this year. Can she do it one more time? She will have some real competition |
| 2. | Kacy Smith, 11 Estero | (4) | 17:55; Has not beaten Ortiz since week #1 of the season, but the last few meetings have been closer. Can she make it back-to-back titles, this time in 3A? |
| 3. | Lily Williams, 12 Chiles | (2) | 17:49; Last chance to take home the title, has come oh so close the last few years, do not count this Senior out |
| 4. | Anne-Marie Blaney, 12 Belleview | (8) | 17:52; The scary thing is she ran this time on a very tough course at Lecanto. She will be right up near the front with a chance to win it |
| 5. | Vanessa Valentine, 12 Melbourne | (3) | 18:02; My dark horse to win the race; has not faced any of the top runners on this list, but could be lying in wait |
| 6. | Nikita Shah, 11 Wiregrass Ranch | (9) | 17:55; Pushed Blaney to her limits at District and Regional; fully capable of taking home the title as well |
| 7. | Carly Thomas, 12 Chiles | (5) | 18:17; Took home the title 2 years ago as a sophomore, could be in the mix |
| 8. | Rachel Givens, 11 Chiles | (10) | 18:21; Has run well this year after taking last year off from cross |
| 9. | Ivy Chastain, 11 Fort Walton Beach | (7) | 18:23; 4th at 3A-1, really has a shot at pusing into the top 5 |
| 10. | Bethany Jenkins, 10 Estero | (NR) | 18:41; 3rd at 3A-3 behind only Ortiz and Smith |
| 11. | Marsel Mosley, 11 Niceville | (6) | 18:47; Had flu bug for region meet, could go much higher, beat Chastain at County and District |
| 12. | Allison Wilson, 11 Leesburg | (NR) | 18:37; Has come virtually out of nowhere to being ranked very high, defeated some very tough girls last week |
| 13. | Rachel Petrik, 12 Fort Myers | (13) | 18:57; Has been steady as #1 for FM all year, looks to close out stellar career with strong performance |
| 14. | Alexis Irwin, 12 Osceola | (20) | 18:59; Has raced at a high level the last few weeks, hopes to use stron kick to place high |
| 15. | Araceli Leon, 10 South Fort Myers | (14) | 19:02; Has not had the most notoriety racing as an individual mostly this year, but one of Southwest Florida's finest |
| 16. | Elizabeth Harper, 11 Merritt Island | (19) | 19:26; Time may not look fast, but has already proven earlier this year she can run with the elite |
| 17. | Octavia Gonzalez, 9 St. Cloud | (25) | 19:26; #1 runner for very steady pack of St. Cloud runners |
| 18. | Katy G. Solis, 11 Estero | (11) | 19:07; Has sometimes been #2 runner for Estero this year; Could have a breakout race and move up well higher |
| 19. | Caroline Barlow, 10 Gulf Coast | (16) | 19:15; 8th place at 3A-3, and leader of upstart Gulf Coast squad |
| 20 | Kaitlin Rodriguez, 12 Creekside | (12) | 18:51; Could really be ranked higher, was 7th in brutally tough 3A-1 Region |
| 21. | Maria Frank, 11 Estero | (NR) | 19:16; Will be counted on along with Curt or Slater to keep Wildcats title hopes intact |
| 22. | Morgan Rodriguez, 10 Cardinal Gibbons | (NR) | 19:37; One of the top runners in Region 4; chance to make a splash |
| 23. | Shannon Morris, 12 Creekside | (18) | 18:51; Knights pack a solid 1-5 punch with Morris part of it, small split |
| 24. | Amanda Spring, 11 Northeast | (NR) | 19:17; Has consistenly run close to Irwin this year, so could be ranked even higher |
| 25. | Sara Heisner, 9 Creekside | (NR) | 18:55; Has been #1 or #2 runner for Knights this year, so could have a strong showing |
| 26. | Ashlyn Stadtlander, 12 St. Cloud | (NR) | 19:41; First runner out of two Stadtlander twin-killings |
| 27. | Rachel Greer, 12 Melbourne | (NR) | 19:41; Everyone has heard of Valentine, but really helps Melbourne having another runner under 20 |
| 28. | Devin McDermott, 12 Lakewood Ranch | (NR) | 19:23; Wendy's High School Heismann Finalistwill need to come up big for the Ranch to keep a top 5 finish |
| 29. | Megan Dewitt, 12 Sarasota | (NR) | 19:45; Will be running as an individual for Sailors, but a top 5 showing on tough 3A-2 course |
| 30. | Sarah Hartman, 11 Sickles | (NR) | 19:50; Rebound year for school basketball star, has been solid the last several weeks |
| 31. | Taylor Tubbs, 11 Sebring | (NR) | 19:50; 7th place at 3A-2; has had a very consistent year |
| 32. | Chelsea Manning, 11 Cypress Lake | (NR) | 19:33; Another runner under the radar. 12th at 3A-3 |
| 33. | Rachel Singer, 10 Winter Springs | (NR) | 19:53; #1 runner for surprise qualifier out of Region 2 |
| 34. | Hannah Loder, 11 Matanzas | (15) | 19:10; Top 10 finish at 3A-1 |
| 35. | Natalie Novak, 11 Lakewood Ranch | (NR) | 19:37; Ditto what I said about McDermott, only 14 seconds behind her at 3A-3 |
| 36. | Emma Ryan-Walker, 10 Washington | (NR) | 19:11; 11th at 3A-1 |
| 37. | Anita Green, 9 East Ridge | (NR) | 20:00; Team is for real! Takes 3rd at 3A-2 on her shoulders |
| 38. | Amber Duncan, 12 Armwood | (NR) | 19:42; Battles through the flu at district and regional for qualifying spot |
| 39. | Danielle DeGreef, 10 Gulf Coast | (NR) | 19:45; Consistent #2 for Gulf Coast this season; 15th at 3A-3 |
| 40. | Karissa Solorzano, 10 St. Cloud | (NR) | 20:05; Top 10 finish at 3A-2 |
| 41. | Aja Curth, 11 Estero | (NR) | 19:49; Really helps Wildcats by deciding to continue cc this year- could be a key part of victory on Saturday |
| 42. | Katie Slater, 10 Estero | (NR) | 19:49; Almost identical finish as Curth- 2/100's of a second, couldn't rank any lower |
| 43. | Claudia Canello, 11 Mitchell | (NR) | 20:06; One of the top runners in Pasco County qualifies as an individual out of Region 2 |
| 44. | Katherine Lutton, 12 Hillsborough | (NR) | 20:06; Has been solid in Hillsborough County for years, looks to finish off her career strong |
| 45. | Katelyn Stadtlander, 12 St.Cloud | (NR) | 20:07; Hopes to get team to top 5 finish in final race |
| 46. | Autumn Wable, 11 Leon | (NR) | 19:25; Running as individual, makes it out of 3A's own Region of Death |
| 47. | Chelsea Davis, 11 Wiregrass Ranch | (NR) | 20:11; Top 15 finish at 3A-2; consistent #2 for WR |
| 48. | Rachel Solomon, 11 Stanton Prep | (NR) | 19:26; Team also qualifies, 13th at 3A-1 |
| 49. | Alyssa Weber, 9 Citrus | (NR) | 19:28; Individual qualifier ou of 3A-1 in 14th |
| 50. | Chloe Benoist, 11 Lecanto | (NR) | 20:13; Has been an individual qualifier the last several years, takes the final spot in 3A-2 |
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4A Girls Rankings |
By: Ryan Raposo, John A. Ferguson HS - rraposo@dadeschools.net | ||
Team Rankings: |
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| Commentary: This is by far the most difficult team rankings I've had to do in my six years as a pollster. There are so many factors that were involved in putting this list together, particularly with respect to the top 10 teams, and especially the top 5 teams. While many people might think there is a bias (particularly when it comes to thinking I am sand-bagging my own team) people need to look at certain factors over the past couple of weeks and read all of the information below to really understand why the rankings are the way they are. Again, this is no way indicative of what is going to happen, it all depends on which team's five girls have the best day, but this is what it looks like to me after Region week. Good luck to everyone on Saturday! | |||
| Region Week Note: Both St. Thomas and Plant both had relatively weak Region meets where they beat the second place team by 60 and 70 points respectively. This was not the case in the Region of Death nor in Region 4 (with Ferguson and Lourdes). So there is some assumption that these teams might not having been running to their full capacity, which again, plays a role in these final rankings. | |||
| Team Name, Region | (Prev.) | Comments: | |
| T-1. | St. Thomas Aquinas, 3 | (T-1) | 1st in R3, Mock State Score- 109; Avg: 19:32.08, Spread: 1:28 |
| Why they are ranked #1- The Raiders are undefeated in 4A this year. They beat Plant, Ferguson, and Olympia in a dominant fashion (by at least 18 points) at the Pre-State meet, plus they beat Ferguson head-to-head at Spanish River. They also had the biggest placing jump last year when they peaked for the state meet (moving up from a 12th place ranking to 5th place finish). | |||
| How they'd win- Racing to win. Just keep doing like they've done all season. Race out hard, compete with every girl, and beat people on hills (that's how they won Spanish River and finished 3rd at Pre-State; strong hill running is their strength). | |||
| How they'd lose- Not having a strong 5th. At both District and Region someone in their main top five girls had an off day. If anyone has an off day, they might not make the podium this year. The good news is, that it wasn't the same girl running as #5 both weeks. | |||
| T-1. | Plant, 2 | (T-1) | 1st in R2, Mock State Score- 100; Avg: 19:30.30, Spread: 46s |
| Why they are ranked #1- Plant is the only team that has shown they are truly seven girls deep. These Panthers have the team average, the spread, and the coaching all in their favor. Coach Harrison is looking for his 10th girls championship, and his 2nd in a row. Their only loss all year was to St. Thomas at Pre-State, they've beat Olympia at Pre-State, and have beaten Ferguson twice this season. | |||
| How they'd win- Depth and Spread. The complete opposite of last year, this season they are capable of putting 6-7 girls inside any other team's 5th girl. If they keep their spread low and tighten that pack, they'll get the win. I really feel as if this is Plant's meet to lose. | |||
| How they'd lose- If another team is just better than they are. 1) If they get out-raced by another team (like St. Thomas did at Pre-State), or 2) if they can't manage to keep their pack together in the top 30 finishers of the race. | |||
| 3. | Olympia, 1 | (4) | 1st in R1, Mock State Score- 103; Avg: 19:24.24, Spread: 2:15 |
| Why they are ranked #3- The Titans, by far, have the best 1-4 group in the state and they should expect four girls in the top 15 this weekend, but unfortunately four girls don't make up a team and that is what might keep them off the podium on Saturday. They've been the big underdog all season, and have been working their way up, so who knows what kind of race they'll bring on Saturday. | |||
| How they'd make the podium- Keep working the magic with the top four girls and hope #5 can have a break through day, or wait for someone else to slip up. Although if they slip up, they could be looking at a 5th of 6th place finish. It's that tough this year. | |||
| 4. | Ferguson, 4 | (3) | 1st in R4, Mock State Score- 126; Avg: 19:40.78, Spread: 1:22 |
| Why they are ranked #4- Although the computers love the Falcons, it doesn't take into account that their #2-3 from Flrunners ran 62 & 88 seconds slower at their Region meet, and that Ferguson's worst two spreads of the year (1:02 and 1:22) were run at District and Region. Also, they've lost twice to St. Thomas and twice to Plant this season, showing that they haven't made the transition into being a team that can race to win championships. | |||
| How they'd make the podium- Find some source of inspiration to be able to run the State Meet the same way they did for the majority of the season prior to the last three weeks. Although the podium is definitely a possibility, they're technically closer to 5th place right now than they are 3rd place. (I am most definitely my harshest critic.) | |||
| 5. | Hagerty, 1 | (7) | 2nd in R1, Mock State Score- 133; Avg: 19:47.22, Spread: 1:22 |
| Why they are ranked #5- The Huskies have a very good team average and spread that is very comparable to Ferguson's and they had dang good Region meet. They have put together a performance that is worthy of the top 5 and fairly good spread should be enough to hold off Dr. Phillips. | |||
| How they'd make the podium- For Hagerty to make the podium they would need a lot of things to happen in their favor, but they just might be able to squeeze into the top three if the above teams all burn themselves out by racing too hard too soon. With a meet like this, anything is possible. | |||
| Top Five Hopefuls: For any of these teams below to crack the top five they really need a lot to happen. For Dr. Phillips it's their 4-5 that need to close the team spread. For Spruce Creek and Lourdes it's not only the 4-5, but the entire team needs to move up in order to hang with Hagerty. Lourdes has been improving and getting healthier each week, but top five might be a long shot this season. | |||
| 6. | Dr. Phillips, 1 | (6) | 3rd in R1, Mock State Score- 158; Avg: 19:42.03, Spread: 2:21 |
| 7. | Spruce Creek, 1 | (9) | 4th in R1, Mock State Score- 177; Avg: 20:03.12, Spread: 1:01 |
| 8. | Lourdes Academy, 4 | (5) | 2nd in R4, Mock State Score- 187; Avg: 20:03.95, Spread: 1:30 |
| Top Ten Hopefuls: Led off by a couple of Region 1 teams (and there could easily be another two or three of them in this group that didn't make it to state) many of these teams do have a legitimate shot at top ten, yet with an off day, they might be hanging out closer to 15th. That's the curse of being hanging around the middle of the pack, anything could happen and one runner could make that much of a difference. | |||
| 9. | Boone, 1 | (8) | 5th in R1, Mock State Score- 223; Avg: 20:15.93, Spread: 1:59 |
| 10. | Oviedo, 1 | (NR) | 6th in R1, Mock State Score- 280; Avg: 20:36.50, Spread: 1:08 |
| 11. | Jupiter, 3 | (16) | 2nd in R3, Mock State Score- 331; Avg: 20:43.45, Spread: 1:56 |
| 12. | Sarasota Riverview, 2 | (12) | 2nd in R2, Mock State Score- 385; Avg: 21:02.08, Spread: 1:25 |
| 13. | Park Vista, 3 | (17) | 3rd in R3, Mock State Score- 413; Avg: 21:14.75, Spread: 1:45 |
| 14. | West Broward, 3 | (19) | 4th in R3, Mock State Score- 416; Avg: 21:14.05, Spread: 3:24 |
| 15. | Freedom (Tampa), 2 | (10) | 3rd in R2, Mock State Score- 436; Avg: 21:17.12, Spread: 1:10 |
| 16. | Seminole, 2 | (13) | 4th in R2, Mock State Score- 437; Avg: 21:19.48, Spread: 1:34 |
| Top 15 Hopefuls and Bottom Tier: A couple of these teams have a shot at making the top 15, but most of these teams are just content with the fact that they made it to the big show. Make sure to have fun, enjoy the meet, and get excited that your team made it to Dade City! =) | |||
| 17. | St. Petersburg, 2 | (NR) | 5th in R2, Mock State Score- 463; Avg: 21:27.96, Spread: 3:39 |
| 18. | Monarch, 3 | (NR) | 5th in R3, Mock State Score- 486; Avg: 21:37.32, Spread: 2:17 |
| 19. | Wharton 2 | (14) | 6th in R2, Mock State Score- 520; Avg: 21:41.56, Spread: 1:17 |
| 20. | Dwyer, 3 | (22) | 6th in R3, Mock State Score- 533; Avg: 21:44.14, Spread: 1:06 |
| 21. | South Dade, 4 | (18) | 3rd in R4, Mock State Score- 537; Avg: 21:57.91, Spread: 1:48 |
| 22. | Coral Reef, 4 | (21) | 4th in R4, Mock State Score- 584; Avg: 22:27.82, Spread: 3:10 |
| 23. | Varela, 4 | (23) | 5th in R4, Mock State Score- 595; Avg: 22:23.66, Spread: 2:47 |
| 24. | Coral Gables, 4 | (T-24) | 6th in R4, Mock State Score- 694; Avg: 23:07.34, Spread: 1:12 |
State Individual Rankings |
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| Commentary: Ranking the individuals is always a tricky process because kids always bounce around and it's hard to predict which young athletes will have big days. Keep in mind that their previous ranking is based on what many of them ran at Pre-State, while their current time is from Region week. I won't shift kids around based on their region times, but in an effort to please the Olympia hopeful with a human factor (shout out to Mr. Dey) let me say that I think Kaitlyn Campo (and Alex Eaton) is a top five state athlete, but just had an off day at the Region. Okay, time for the individual rankings! =) | |||
| Athlete Name, Grade – Team | (Prev.) | Time, Comments: | |
| 1. | Bridget Blake, 11 - Dr. Phillips | (1) | 1st in R1, 18:20.92 - She should once again be the 4A Individual Champion! |
| 2. | Mary Kate Ponder, 12 - Mandarin | (2) | 2nd in R1, 18:27.69 - She's been a solid #2 and should be the State Runner-up! |
| 3. | Emily Headley, 9 - Olympia | (48) | 3rd in R1, 18:32.05 - The freshman has performed well for most of the season, hopefully she'll conquer the hill this time. |
| 4. | Amy Ankli, 11 - Hagerty | (3) | 4th in R1, 18:48.36 - A strong #1 for her team, she's definitely a top five athlete. |
| 5. | Alex Payne, 11 - St. Thomas | (5) | 1st in R3, 18:58.66 - A fierce competitor, you know she's expecting to be up here. |
| 6. | Heather Classe, 11 - Boone | (8) | 5th in R1, 19:00.20 - Has run well all season long, she'll fight for a top five spot. |
| 7. | Lauren Gonzalez, 12 - Ferguson | (7) | 1st in R4, 19:01.95 - Looks like you've almost accomplished your individual goal; run fast, Sprinkle! |
| 8. | Alyssa Hamel, 12 - Olympia | (58) | 6th in R1, 19:02.98 - If she can manage a top ten finish, her squad make the podium this season. |
| 9. | Julia Rodriguez, 11 - Plant | (12) | 1st in R2, 19:07.30 - One of the top returnees from last year, she's no stranger to the top ten. |
| 10. | Charlotte Stephens, 10 - Winter Park | (9) | 7th in R1, 19:07.83 (Individual Qualifier) - On a good day she has a shot to crack the top five. |
| 11. | Regan Farrow, 11 - Lake Howell | (13) | 8th in R1, 19:08.32 (Individual Qualifier) |
| 12. | Annais Pena, 12 - Dr. Phillips | (21) | 9th in R1, 19:11.94 |
| 13. | Courtney Filliben, 11 - Lourdes | (NR) | 2nd in R4, 19:12.08 |
| 14. | Amber Johnson, 11 - Dr. Phillips | (10) | 10th in R1, 19:12.18 |
| 15. | Danielle Kissel, 12 - Plant | (15) | 2nd in R2, 19:14.90 |
| 16. | Taylor Watson, 9 - Olympia | (39) | 11th in R1, 19:18.22 |
| 17. | Kaitlyn Campo, 11 - Olympia | (6) | 12th in R1, 19:19.98 - Should be a top five competitor, watch for her. |
| 18. | Alex Eaton, 10 - St. Petersburg | (4) | 3rd in R2, 19:20.20 - Same as the girl above, a potential top five girl. |
| 19. | Meagan Schloss, 9 - St. Thomas | (16) | 2nd in R3, 19:20.60 |
| 20 | Elma Montero, 12 - Lake Howell | (NR) | 13th in R1, 19:20.83 (Individual Qualifier) |
| 21. | Chloe Sell, 12 - West Broward | (NR) | 3rd in R3, 19:20.93 |
| 22. | Stephanie de la Guarda, 10 - Ferguson | (14) | 3rd in R4, 19:22.29 |
| 23. | Courteney Zboyan, 9 - Jupiter | (NR) | 4th in R3, 19:24.54 |
| 24. | Cristina Figueras, 10 - Lourdes | (23) | 4th in R4, 19:25.65 |
| 25. | Brianna Rischar, 9 - St. Thomas | (42) | 5th in R3, 19:27.89 |
| 26. | Giselle Suarez, 12 - St. Thomas | (17) | 6th in R3, 19:28.75 |
| 27. | Jocelin Adona, 12 - Spruce Creek | (29) | 14th in R1, 19:29.28 |
| 28. | Emily Hernandez, 10 - Ferguson | (22) | 5th in R4, 19:30.99 |
| 29. | Topaz Brissett, 12 - Boyd Anderson | (NR) | 7th in R3, 19:33.11 (Individual Qualifier) |
| 30. | Kara Halfaker, 12 - Plant | (24) | 4th in R2, 19:36.20 |
| 31. | Scarlett Fox, 11 - Plant | (35) | 5th in R2, 19:39.20 |
| 32. | Kaley Schmick, 9 - Cypress Creek | (19) | 15th in R1, 19:40.60 (Individual Qualifier) |
| 33. | Courtney Jacobazzi, 11 - Coral Springs | (NR) | 8th in R3, 19:41.60 (Individual Qualifier) |
| 34. | Katherine MacNeal, 10 - Cypress Bay | (51) | 9th in R3, 19:47.94 (Individual Qualifier) |
| 35. | Brenna Johnson, 10 - Hagerty | (NR) | 17th in R1, 19:50.55 |
| 36. | Zoe Volenec, 12 - Spruce Creek | (NR) | 18th in R1, 19:52.36 |
| 37. | Erica Oosterhout, 9 - Plant | (27) | 6th in R2, 19:53.90 |
| 38. | Sarah Ankli, 12 - Sarasota Riverview | (20) | 19th in R1, 19:54.33 |
| 39. | Isabelle Amaro, 11 - West Broward | (28) | 10th in R3, 19:55.33 |
| 40. | Caroline Jackson, 10 - Oviedo | (52) | 20th in R1, 20:04.14 |
| 41. | Katrina Santiago, 10 - Ferguson | (37) | 6th in R4, 20:05.55 |
| 42. | Cassie Ketchum, 9 - Boone | (47) | 21st in R1, 20:06.09 |
| 43. | Alycia Loriz, 11 - Spruce Creek | (59) | 22nd in R1, 20:06.24 |
| 44. | Tiffany Gargiulo, 11 - Hagerty | (49) | 23rd, in R1, 20:10.74 |
| 45. | Taylor Johnson, 11 - Hagerty | (NR) | 24th in R1, 20:12.08 |
| 46. | Caroline Gibson, 11 - Plant | (36) | 7th in R2, 20:14.20 |
| 47. | Savanah Lacey, 11 - Oviedo | (NR) | 25th in R1, 20:14.99 |
| 48. | Qadeera Allen, 12 - Boyd Anderson | (NR) | 11th in R3, 20:15.95 (Individual Qualifier) |
| 49. | Tori Ehrhardt, 12 - Spruce Creek | (NR) | 26th in R1, 20:16.72 |
| 50. | Jacqueline Johnson, 12 - Monarch | (NR) | 12th in R3, 20:18.47 |
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BOYS STATE RANKINGS
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1A Boys Rankings |
By: Ray Romero, East Lee County HS, raycer131@aol.com | ||
Team Rankings: |
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| Commentary: So Holy Trinity hasn't lost all year in state and I don't see this week being their breakdown race. They should have all 7 in the top 25 making it tough to beat them. The race for the podium spot next to them all year has been PKY and TP, but at Regionals TP layed down the gauntlet and said we are not giving up our trophy to PKY the last team to take it from them. To be honest 4th and 5th ranked are close to one another and 6th-10th can finish in any order. The boys do run a bit later in the day, so if it's hot things out of the ordinary can happen. Good Luck to all the runners. | |||
| Team Name (Region) | (Prev.) | Comments: | |
| 1. | Holy Trinity (R-3 #1) | (1) | 15:55 AVG as close to a sure thing as you can get |
| 2. | Trinity Prep (R-2 #1) | (3) | 16:27 AVG not only did the close the gap, but they flat out beat PKY at Regionals |
| 3. | P.K. Yonge School (R-2 #2) | (2) | 16:22 AVG Need to be perfect to make it on the podium and be the first team since PKY to knock off one of the "Trinity" schools |
| 4. | Maclay (R-1 #1) | (4) | 16:59 AVG layed low most of the year trained hard for State Series and it shows |
| 5. | Circle Christian (R-2 #4) | (5) | 17:08 AVG gotta work really hard to take down Maclay for 4th place especially after getting 4th in their region |
| 6. | Bishop John J. Snyder (R-1 #2) | (7) | 17:27 AVG with a 1-5 Split of 50 seconds, they are moving well together as a group and the team is benefiting from it |
| 7. | Tampa Prep (R-2 #3) | (6) | 17:20 AVG Top 4 are solid pack running, # 5-7 need to step up to challenge for a top 5 finish |
| 8. | Pensacola Christian (R-1 #3) | (9) | 17:31 AVG 3rd at a tough region moves them up a spot |
| 9. | Seffner Christian Academy (R-2 #5) | (8) | 17:31 AVG listened to my rant last rankings, top 6 at region is piece of cake now |
| 10. | Mount Dora Bible (R-2 #6) | (12) | 17:50 AVG Made it out to States and earned the spot I gave them last week |
| 11. | McKeel Academy (R-3 #2) | (15) | 17:57 AVG great pack and 1-5 split but to contend they need to all improve together as a pack |
| 12. | St John Neumann (R-3 #3) | (10) | 17:34 AVG the 1-7 split of 1:40 is solid if they can all move together they can move closer to the top 5 teams |
| 13. | Keswick Christian (R-3 #4) | (11) | 17:40 AVG 3,4 &5 need to step up for this team to not get passed up and move back down the list |
| 14. | Community School of Naples (R-3 #5) | (14) | 17:54 AVG # 5 needs to step up or you can keep slipping down the rankings prior to State |
| 15. | Wewahitchka High School (R-1 #4) | (NR) | 18:05 AVG great regional race to lead up this week |
| Ranked Teams That Did Not Advance: | First Academy Orlando and Shorecrest Prep | ||
| Virtual State Meet Based On Teams Advancing Below (no individuals) Best Times of the Year used | |||
| Virtual State Meet Based On Teams Advancing Below (no individuals ) AVG Times of the Year used | |||
Individual Rankings: |
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| Commentary: Head to head once and for all the settle the score all runners on the same course. No one to blame but yourself if you don't run well. You should go into this race ready for anything expecting to run a great race. If you are on the line hoping for a good race or hoping someone ahead of you fails, then you have already lost. You train your body all year to make it perform on this one day for this one event. I don't think anyone will bear Moore, he hasn't lost this year, and doesn't show signs of choking on the big stage. Gousse and Salas shut me up and will be 2nd and 3rd unless Mutz has something to say about it, or will Westlake and Brown be the ones? I guess what I am saying is anything can happen after Moore, there is close to a 30 second gap between 2nd and 11th's AVG time for the year. | |||
| Athlete Name, Grade – Team | Prev. | Time, Comments: | |
| 1. | Daniel Moore,12 - Holy Trinity | 1. | 14:57 Come and get him |
| 2. | Ryan Gousse,12 -Trinity Prep | 3. | 15:42 Winner of the Friday night race at Prestate in a good time given the weather and an evening race |
| 3. | Daniel Salas,11 - Trinity Prep | 4. | 16:00 @ Disney and a great showing at Prestate Friday night keeps him slightly ahead of Mutz |
| 4. | Mark Mutz,12 - Lakeland Chrisitan | 5. | 15:50 @ Prestate not too far behind Moore at Regionals |
| 5. | Jordan Brown,12 - PKY | 7. | 16:05 @ Keystone J-boogey needs to have a heart to heart with his team for a trophy to go with his medal |
| 6. | Tristan Kattenberg,11 - Holy Trinity | 9. | 16:08 and an AVG of 16:31 for the year keeps him in the top 10 with 3 of his teammates |
| 7. | Joey Castagnaro,12 - Holy Trinity | 6. | 16:12 @ HT Classic he ran a new SB and I will not move him off his spot |
| 8. | Garrett Westlake,11 - PKY | 2. | 15:39 Bad race at Regionals, might still be a sleeper for top 5 but could also slip out of top 10 |
| 9. | Alex Brown,11 - Holy Trinity | 8. | 16:12 and an AVG of 16:28 for the year not too shabby for HT's #4 runner at Regionals |
| 10. | Derek Bolser,11 - PKY | 10. | 16:18 @ Alligator Lake all 5 PKY boys need to be perfect to get back the podium spot I thought they had |
| 11. | Travis Covert.11 - Maclay | 11. | 16:20 @ Panhandle moves him back close to the top (been training more than racing) look out top 10 |
| 12. | Sam Goldberg,12 - Trinity Prep | 12. | 16:32 @ Flrunners needs to close the gap on his teamates to keep his medal and go for the team title |
| 13. | Cole Oliver,11 - Holy Trinity | 14. | 16:29 @ HT Classic keeps him ranked in the top 15 as HT gear up and train hard for State |
| 14. | Scott Simpson, 11 - Kings Academy | 15. | 16:37 and just hard enough to win his Region |
| 15. | Alex Montgomery,12 - CSN | 16. | 16:37 @ Pre-State keeps him from dropping too far this week |
| 16. | Troy Clark ,10 - MDB | 17. | 16:39 @ West Orange Invite |
| 17. | Andrew Cacciatore,09 - Holy Trinity | 18. | 16:43 and is the top ranked freshman in this class if he can have a breakout State meet he can easily be on the podium |
| 18. | David Dolan,12 - PKY | 19. | 16:40 @ Kestone Heights |
| 19. | James Connor Daughton, 10 - Maclay | 20 | 16:44 @ Panhandle |
| 20 | Mario Ojeda, 12 - Northside Christian | 21. | 16:21, but a 17:06 and barely making States |
| 21. | Alex Hoffman,12 - Holy Trinity | 13. | 16:35 and 16:56 AVG for the year will keep him in 12th for this week again |
| 22. | Josh Keenan,11- Seffner Christian Academy | 23. | 16:30 @ Bay Conference |
| 23. | Jordan Foster,11 - Circle Christian | 24. | 16:49 time at Flrunners will drop him slightly with no time change over the last 2 weeks |
| 24. | Jakin Foster,12 - Circle Christian | 25. | 16:25 @ Flrunners, but a district loss to Clark and Jordan Foster drop him down |
| 25. | Jacob Edrulat, 11 - Keswick Christian | (NR) | 16:21 but 9th in his Regional race |
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2A Boys Rankings |
By: Mike Becker, Ransom Everglades, mbecker@ransomeverglades.org | ||
Team Rankings: |
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| Commentary: I have said from day one that I thought it might take a crow bar to separate Ransom and Bishop Kenny. It looks like either Kenny will win its 8th AA FHSAA title or that Ransom will win its 6th title. Its IMPOSSIBLE to compare regional courses or efforts ( despite Jason's attempts to equate them) , especially THESE region courses..... so we have to look at gaps, common opponents etc. In their only "head to head" Ransom wins... but Kenny did not run some of their top 7. Ransom 1-2 stronger ( but not by much) with Irigoyen and Scola. This is countered by the fact that Kenny has Ransom on paper at 4 and 5 "if" all are healthy. Kenny has more depth and Ransom is relyng on an 8th grader who finished 8th in Region 4 ( albeit a weak region). All this attention to Kenny and Ransom... but there are scenarios that play out to either Berkeley or Nature Coast. Berkeley did defeat Ransom at Deja Vu ( the only AA team all year to do so) , but that was without Ransom running its 3rd man (Bustmante) and was when Irigoyen ran without a chip (his name was inserted into a place that was not his). Even so, Berekely was dominant in their last several meets, and has the potential to put their top two right with Ransom's or Kenny's. It would not be the greatest upset of all time if Berkeley wins. The wee dominant in a strong region and their times are good. They have raced well at Great American in North Carolina and at Pre state; so they are battle tested. Nature Coast has the tightest pack, and finally had their top runners emerge from their comfortable pack in their region meet. If their 3 -5 runners follow Van Natter as closely as they did earlier in the year, and if Van Natter repeats his regional heroics, this group is capable of an upset. Before regionals, I would have put Immokallee in the mix. Immmokalee definitely can put a fifth man in before any of the three aforementioned teams. But that being said.... they are not a tested in "big" meets with only a fair showing at FL Runners under their belts. Though they do have the ability to finish in the top 3, I think they are a solid 5th. The "best of the rest"? Cocoa Beach, Robinson, Bolles and perennial powerhouse Tampa Jesuit all will challenge Immokalee for 5th. To round out the top ten..... let me go with hmmmmm..... Lake Highland Prep which is coming on real strong. I am sure that as region champions, they feel they should be closer to the top 5 . They could be . Although rounding out the top 10 could also be Pensacola Catholic, Eastside or Lehigh ( who I probably motivated by ranking them 15th) . If I get the top 10 right ( in any order) I am buying myself a steak dinner, and will think about doing this next year. Thanks for the feedback guys, especially from the middle of the state. I look foward to seeing a competitive race in 80 degree weather | |||
| Team Name | Comments: | ||
| 1a. | Ransom Everglades | Only loss to a AA school all year was a nailbiter to Berkeley at déjà vu | |
| 1b. | Bishop Kenny | Cofavorite…these guys have a great 5 man gap when all run well. Do not look at how much they lost to RE at pre state. That race was an eternity ago and some of top 5 did not run.. | |
| 3. | Berkeley Prep | Race tested; they may offer a challenge to the RE and BK, especially if that conference race they ran a few weeks ago was close to a real 5K; a scary team for BK and RE | |
| 4. | Nature Coast | Solid, solid pack all year ….. These guys run like a close team and you know what " close teams" can do. | |
| 5. | Immokalee | Slightly disappointing region finish, they look like at least a solid 5th if they run better than they did last week. Otherwise look out behind, as 5-8 ( and maybe Bolles too) on this list are very very close behind. | |
| 6. | Robinson | I had these guys underranked early in the year. They are a solid team with a chance at top 5 | |
| 7. | Jesuit | Tradition assures us that they will finish somewhere in the top 10, maybe as high as 5th | |
| 8. | Cocoa Beach | I had these guys ranked way too low in first ranking. You guys proved me wrong already | |
| 9. | Bolles | Hard to separate Immokalee, Robinson, Jesuit and Cocoa Beach who were almost inseparable last week. But Bolles is probably right with these teams. Appear to be peaking. | |
| 10. | Lake Highland | Regional runner ups probably thinking "what!" we are only tenth? Prove me wrong guys.. I wont take it personally | |
| 11. | Pensacola Catholic | Very competitive all year with a shot at the top 10 | |
| 12. | Eastside | First state birth and can crack the top 10 with a good day | |
| 13. | Lake Nona | Solid district and region finishes | |
| 14. | West Florida Tech | With Clark and Sortino they are strong enough up front to finish better than 14th | |
| 15. | Lehigh | I know, no respect… they probably should be higher than this… it wouldn’t shock me Lehigh if you are better… you have two studs up front in Camacho and Casiano | |
| 16 | Episcopal | Another team with two studs that can do better than 16th | |
| 17 | Lincoln Park | Runner up finish in weak region 4 but has strong number 1 runner. They have enough talent to be better than 15th. | |
| 18 | Jones | Finished well at regions | |
| 19 | Frostproof | A surprise qualifier? Who knows | |
| 20 | Gulf | Will finish in the top 20 somewhere | |
| 21 | St Andrews | An off day at region meet, but they are a well coached, good team and will likely go better than 20th | |
| 22 | Key West | These guys are used to long trips so they will be less affected by the "drive" . | |
| 23 | Doral | 3rd through 6th at Region 4 separated by a few points | |
| 24 | Gulliver | Certainly is capable of finishing a few places higher. | |
Individual Rankings: |
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| Commentary: Where do we start? There have only been three repeat AA champions since the present four classifications began. Nicolas Wilson from Paxon was the last to accomplish this feat in 2001. Irigoyen will face potential challenges from runners 2 -9 on this list. Palermo, though hard to predict, is the only one of them to have broken 16:00 on multiple occassions including doing so at this year's pre state race. Alex Main is on a roll, but has only been seconds apart from Brian Sharp. To make things more complicated, Main ( number two on this list) was defeated twice by Bily Scola. Shift up north. Michael Barr and Dillon Hodge have gone back and forth and have sandwiched Stanley Linton. Thus I am confident to predict that if anyone upsets Irigoyen, it wll be one of these 8 eight guys ( pretty safe bet huh) . I have not given due props to some of the guys who did not run in big invites this year. But now lets make mention that Erick Medina ( yes the Disney times are misleading), Dalton Shelton and Jacob Leuze all previosuly unranked guys, appear to have shots at getting on the medal stand, as does Chris Camacho, Leonel De La Cruz, Miguel Casiano among others. I get it guys... I have forgotten someone. But I gotta stop the list somewhere. Its a long drive to Little Everglades. Bring your sunscreen and drink lots of water for an 80 degree state meet. | |||
| Athlete Name – Team | Time, Comments: | ||
| 1. | Bert Irigoyen RANSOM EVERGLADES | Its time to see if he will be the first repeat AA winner in 12 years | |
| 2. | Alex Main - BERKELEY PREP | Region Champion and will almost certainly present a challenge. | |
| 3. | Brian Sharp - ROBINSON | Has gone "toe to toe" with Main; will be in the lead pack for sure | |
| 4. | Michael Barr - BISHOP KENNY | Region 1 champion, coming on strong, will be in that pack challenging Irigoyen | |
| 5. | Dillon Hodge - MENENDEZ | Has gone back and forth with Barr, and presents yet anotherlegitimate challenger for the throne | |
| 6. | Billy Scola - RANSOM EVERGLADES | Maybe underrated...has beaten ( at least once) everyone in the AA field that he raced except for Sharp who was only seconds ahead at pre state | |
| 7. | Nicolas Palermo - NORTH BROWARD PREP | On a slow Region 4 race, Palermo was "off". But he is one of the few who can run sub 16:00 at Little Everglades as he has proven already. In fact, he has broken 16:00 there as many times as Irigoyen has. Nicholas can be anywhere from 1st to 15th | |
| 8. | Stanley Linton - WAKULLA | Runner up in tough region race. Fewer head to head match ups with runners outside of Region 1 make this hard to call. He could be closer to the gold medal. | |
| 9. | Jean Deceus - IMMOKALEE | A little off at regionals but has proven he can run well at Little Everglades | |
| 10. | Nick Papa - LAKE HIGHLAND | Region champ again, ran on fastest of the 4 region courses, but has ability to finish better than 10th | |
| 11. | Erick Medina - LABELLE | I didn’t show Medina enough love but he surely belongs with the elite | |
| 12. | Patrick Maher - BISHOP KENNY | Hard to place him as he has struggled in last few meets, but has run very fast on this course, and his team will need him , so I expect a repeat of Pre state performance here. | |
| 13. | Shaun Majumdar - BERKELEY | Another Berkeley guy battle tested in big meets; will challenge for top 10 | |
| 14. | Austin Cox - LINCOLN PARK | Don’t be decieved by his slow time, his close finish third place to Irigoyen and Scola on a ridiculously SLOW Region 4 course means he might be better than 14th | |
| 15. | Tim O'loughlin - JESUIT | A strong region finish!! Appears to be peaking | |
| 16. | Don Kerrigan - PENSACOLA CATHOLIC | A solid 4th at region and has run well all year | |
| 17. | Patrick Maher - BISHOP KENNY | This guy hard to place… give me some slack here….his 16:02 at pre state appears to have been followed by illness or injury. If healthy he is top 5 material | |
| 18. | Alec Clark - WEST FLORIDA | Has been in top 20 most of year | |
| 19. | Taylor Hickey - ROCKLEDGE | He is a legit top 20 threat runner | |
| 20 | Jacob Leuze - SOUTH WALTON | An "unknown" moving up the ranks | |
| 21. | Dalton Shelton - LAKE PLACID | I know... I know…. I am showing no repect, actually putting him in this company is showing respect | |
| 22. | Jims Thimogene - AMERICAN HERITAGE | Yes…. he ran poorly in the slow region 4 course, as did entire field... but did run 16:19 at pre state | |
| 23. | Argishti Gazari - ANCLOTE | Appears to be struggling but early season success shows potential is there | |
| 24. | Cody Van Natter- NATURE COAST | Great region race as e breaks away from his teammates. If he continues to peak will be in top 15. | |
| 25. | Eddie Bustamante - RANSOM EVERGLADES | Rapidly improving… could be top 15 | |
| 26. Chris Sorrick - ANCLOTE | Along with Gazari, has had some great races | ||
| 27. Cecil Vignutti - BISHOP KENNY | If Kenny is to win the team title he is one of the guys that will be better than 25th | ||
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3A Boys Rankings |
By: Carl Egbert, Barron Collier HS, carl_egbert@hotmail.com | ||
| Commentary: Finally! The State Meet is this weekend and we can stop the nonsense of courses being short or not " RAPOSO CERTIFIED"! Everyone has to lace em up and bang heads on the same terrain Saturday whether they are ready or not. Many runners threw down some nasty times here in mid October and will be hoping to improve on that form in November when it really matters! Those September and October PRs no longer matter on Saturday as its time to strap on your big boy pants and Rock n Roll. Saturday is gonna be a Mans Race! I have included all the team qualifiers as well as individuals. | |||
| Region 1 | Score | Team Average | |
| 1. | Fort Walton Beach | 90 | 16:12 |
| 2. | Bartram Trail | 94 | 16:13 |
| 3. | Washington | 123 | 16:22 |
| 4. | Chiles | 154 | 16:34 |
| 5. | Leon | 154 | 16:31 |
| 6. | Matanzas | 221 | 16:50 |
| Individual Qualifiers | |||
| 1. Thomas Howell - Niceville 15:29 | |||
| 2. Nicholas Morken - Niceville 15:38 | |||
| 3. Mac Reynolds - Nease 15:42 | |||
| 7. Jacob Slupecki - Lincoln 15:55 | |||
| 9. Tim Wenger - Citrus 15:56 | |||
| 10. Emery Ramaswami - Vanguard 15:57 | |||
| Region 1 Commentary: This region was crazy competitive as there was an 11 second spread from #4 - #16! 32 runners broke 16:30 and 10 pts separated teams 6-9. Congrats to the 6 young men who ran Sub 16 just to make it out of the Region of Death on their own. I would not be surpised to see the Top 5 at States contain 3-4 of these teams and possibly 3 of these young men could be Top 5 in the individual race. | |||
| Region 2 | Score | Team Average | |
| 1. | Wiregrass Ranch | 57 | 16:46 |
| 2. | Sarasota | 91 | 17:00 |
| 3. | Chamberlin | 91 | 16:58 |
| 4. | Steinbrenner | 104 | 17:08 |
| 5. | St. Cloud | 167 | 17:30 |
| 6. | Land O Lakes | 193 | 17:44 |
| Individual Qualifiers | |||
| 1. Quincy O'Connor - Celebration 15:53 | |||
| 6. Jose Perez - Haines City 16:36 | |||
| 7. Matt Henning - Harmony 16:43 | |||
| 9. Chad Kirkman - Lakeland HS 16:45 | |||
| 13. David Piatt - Sickles 16:49 | |||
| Region 2 Commentary: O'Connor over del Monte a bit of a surprise here and along with O'Connor 4 other runners make it out of the region. All 6 of the teams qualify for states were correctly picked by your humble pollster but the only team place I had correct was Wiregrass Ranch winning. I still expect del Monte to be battling for the win on Saturday. | |||
| Region 3 | Score | Team Average | |
| 1. | Fort Myers | 57 | 16:29 |
| 2. | Estero | 72 | 16:33 |
| 3. | Naples | 75 | 16:37 |
| 4. | Palmetto Ridge | 95 | 16:43 |
| 5. | Charlotte | 144 | 17:11 |
| 6. | Ida Baker | 165 | 17:18 |
| Individual Qualifiers | |||
| 8. Canaan Meester-Kitterman - Bayshore 16:19 | |||
| 12. Bobby Ormsby - Cypress Lake 16:31 | |||
| 13. Julien Cuyeu - Barron Collier 16:32 | |||
| Region 3 Commentary: The men in green and white took apart another talented field last Friday on a cold and windy morning in Charlotte. Fort Myers put 4 runners in the top 15 and 5 in the first 22 places to handily beat Estero for the second time in 3 weeks and Naples for the second week in a row. Carlos Miranda stayed patient through an opening mile in 5:10 and then kept his cool when Buddy Gates towed the field throught the second mile which dwindled the lead pack to 6 runners. He eased away in the 3rd mile to take a 7 second victory over Rojas from Estero. Individually moving on will be Canaan from Bayshore, Bobby Ormsby from Cypress Lake and Julien Cuyeu from Barron Collier qualifies and continues to run well in spite of the coaching he receives. | |||
| Region 4 | Score | Team Average | |
| 1. | Belen Jesuit | 16 | 16:13 |
| 2. | Martin County | 127 | 18:02 |
| 3. | Melbourne | 133 | 18:06 |
| 4. | Jensen Beach | 150 | 18:18 |
| 5. | Cardinal Gibbons | 184 | 18:32 |
| 6. | Palm Bay | 201 | 18:41 |
| Individual Qualifiers | |||
| 5. Andrew Iglesias - Pembroke Pines16:34 | |||
| 8. Kelly Etienne - Pt. ST Lucie17:04 | |||
| 9. Samy Elabber - Forest Hill 17:06 | |||
| 12. Kevin Sapp - Pt St Lucie - 17:27 | |||
| 15. Jo Negron-Santiago - Pt St Lucie 17:39 | |||
| Region 4 Commentary: Just your run of the mill tune up for Belen Jesuit as they sharpen the edges for Saturday. 5 young men make it out without their teams in this region that ran the slowest of them all. | |||
Team Predictions: |
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| Commentary: This is just my not so humble opinion on how things will shake out Saturday. If you disagree please hold your emails until things are sorted out on Saturday. I base these predictions on how teams have run the last few weeks and not on the computer rankings. Just remember that everything will be sorted out by some fine young athletes on Saturday. | |||
| Team Name | Comments: | ||
| 1. | Belen Jesuit | Take it to the bank | |
| 2. | Fort Walton Beach | 23 second spread at Regions is handy when you run 16:02-16:25 | |
| 3. | Bartram Trail | Could easily be on podium if they run like they did at Region 1558-16:31 spread is silly good | |
| 4. | Fort Myers | Running as well as anyone right now! They gonna rock the white uniforms again? | |
| 5. | Washington | Top 5 is some really solid running this year! | |
| 6. | Estero | too well coached to finish any lower than this when it matters | |
| 7. | Wiregrass Ranch | running real well right now | |
| 8. | Naples | Herbie will need his teammates to run BIG this weekend | |
| 9. | Chiles | Can jump way up with good day | |
| 10. | Palmetto Ridge | 2 low sticks put them in top 10 | |
| 11. | Leon | can be much higher if they have a good day | |
| 12. | Steinbrenner | much better than their 4th place at regions | |
| 13. | Sarasota | ||
| 14. | Matanzas | ||
| 15. | Chamberlin | ||
| 16. | Charlotte | ||
| 17. | Ida Baker | ||
| 18. | St. Cloud | ||
| 19. | Land O Lakes | ||
| 20. | Melbourne | ||
| 21. | Martin County | ||
| 22. | Jensen Beach | ||
| 23. | Cardinal Gibbons | ||
| 24. | Palm Bay | ||
Individual Rankings: |
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| Commentary: Honestly after the first 5 you could throw 30 names out there and they all could be in the top 15 on Saturday. Some runners probably cruised through districts and regions and some had to throw down just to survive. Let's see who brings their A game and who is running on fumes. Good luck to everyone on Saturday! | |||
| Athlete Name – Team | Time, Comments: | ||
| 1. | Elliot Clemente - Belen Jesuit | Just too good for this field | |
| 2. | Carlos Miranda - Palmetto Ridge | Will chase Elliot all the way to the line this time | |
| 3. | Thomas Howell - Niceville | Again all this kid does is run well and this will be no different | |
| 4. | Max del Monte - Chamberlin | will not count him out | |
| 5. | Mac Reynolds - Nease | rebounds from 3rd at Regions for Top 5 here | |
| 6. | Nicholas Morken - Niceville | running so well right now | |
| 7. | Avery Lopez - Belen Jesuit | has been able to cruise through districts and regions | |
| 8. | Quincy O' Connor - Celebration | will be in the mix at 2 miles | |
| 9. | Aaron Rojas - Estero | running really well right now | |
| 10. | Ace Brown - Fort Myers | running so well right now for Green Wave | |
| 11. | Christian Buzzard - Chiles | great name and will run well Saturday | |
| 12. | Herbert Gates - Naples | patience young Jedi you must learn | |
| 13. | Josh Pelletier - Palmetto Ridge | will be top 10 on a good day | |
| 14. | Belen Jesuits # 3 runner will be here! | ||
| 15. | Will Henderson - Leon | fine race at Regions and will ride momentum to top 15 here | |
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4A Boys Rankings |
By: Jorge Fleitas, Columbus HS - jfleitas@columbushs.com | ||
| Team Rankings: | |||
| Team Name | (Prev.) | Comments: | |
| 1. | Colonial | (1) | Truly impressive win for the Colonial the past two weekends. With Andres Arroyo being the favorite it looks like they will be in great shape to bring home the trophy. |
| 2. | Columbus | (2) | This is a group that has showed up and are thinking and acting as one, look for them to have a dog fight with Colonial for the Trophy |
| 3. | HB Plant | (3) | By sweeping Districts and Regions, Plant has put themselves in the best position to being an underdog since head coach Boza took over. |
| 4. | Winter Park | (4) | The contending Park are an astounding fifth or better team, the state meet is where they usually shine. |
| 5. | Seminole | (8) | Seminole Jumps up 3 Spots? I must be crazy, or I must look at the fact the Seminole gained a lot of ground in the rankings, because they lost a close race to Regional rival Plant last week. |
| 6. | John I Leonard | (12) | John I Leonard is beginning to look like its old self after a big Regional Victory over St. Thomas. |
| 7. | Olympia | (6) | It’s really not fair to rank Olympia this low. Especially when they have the potential to roll out 3 guys sub 16:00, don’t count them out on Saturday. |
| 8. | St. Thomas | (5) | They can't dwell on the loss to John I Leonard with the State Meet on Saturday look for Aquinas to come out strong this weekend. |
| 9. | Mandarin | (9) | Mandarin has returned to the Ranch in style, they have the ability to finish at this 9th spot led by a couple of upper classmen. |
| 10. | Spruce Creek | (7) | The Creek is continuing to run hard and they may be able to string together a top 10 finish but the teams behind them are coming. |
| 11. | Lyman | (NR) | |
| 12. | Sunset | (10) | |
| 13. | Park Vista | (13) | |
| 14. | Vero Beach | (NR) | |
| 15. | John A Ferguson | (11) | |
Individual Rankings: |
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| Athlete Name – Team | (Prev.) | ||
| 1. | Andres Arroyo - Colonial | (1) | |
| 2. | Chris Godwin - Buchholz | (2) | |
| 3. | Billy Anguish - Winter Park | (3) | |
| 4. | Jacob Hudak- Seminole | (9) | |
| 5. | Michael Babinec- Riverview | (4) | |
| 6. | Anderson Charles - John I Leonard | (5) | |
| 7. | Kurt Convey- Coral Reef | (12) | |
| 8. | Mitchell Moore - Olympia | (6) | |
| 9. | Manny Garcia - Columbus | (7) | |
| 10. | Thomas Christenberry - HB Plant | (8) | |
| 11. | Otniel Teixeira - Lake Brantley | (10) | |
| 12. | Danny Fernandez - Columbus | (11) | |
| 13. | Ryan White - Park Vista | (14) | |
| 14. | Peter Licari - Hagerty | (15) | |
| 15. | Keneth Piniero- Deland | (NR) | |
| 16. | Cody Decker- Colonial | (18) | |
| 17. | John Lindsey - Winter Park | (16) | |
| 18. | Charlie Bengston- John I Leonard | (NR) | |
| 19. | Curtis Foulsham - HB Plant | (19) | |
| 20 | Brian Anderson - Lyman | (20) | |
| 21. | Andrew Carpenter- Spruce Creek | (21) | |
| 22. | Daniel Linares- Columbus | (NR) | |
| 23. | John Profitt - Colonial | (22) | |
| 24. | Nick French- Spanish River | (NR) | |
| 25. | Nick Bauer- St. Thomas | (NR) | |
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Please remember that all of these rankings are done by volunteers and are meant to increase the overall enjoyment of the sport for athletes, coaches, parents, and fans. They are just for fun and should not have a lot of weight put on them. But if you have issues (such as a missed athlete or team), please email the individual pollster for your classification and gender, or direct any major concerns towards the State Rankings Representative: Coach Ryan Raposo- rraposo@dadeschools.net